Coronavirus: General discussion (see opening post for rules)

[Boredguy]

it's just advice as of Thursday, so perfect if you work with people you don't like I guess.

[Seb1780]

Yes, I thought it was that the legal requirement to isolate has been downgraded to just 'advice'.

 

The trouble with advice, is it really will only be adhered to by those with the means and sense of propriety to do so... and they probably would have whether it was advice or a legal requirement.

 

Most of those who don't, wouldn't have anyway regardless, because honestly though, did anyone ever get arrested for going outside when they had Covid? I remember some high profile cases of fines for breaking 'lockdown' as such, but none for breaking a 'quarantine'... and I'm guessing this also only applied to those who'd been told to isolate after taking an official PCR?

 

By that reckoning not much will change, and I agree with you on that - those who would/could isolate previously will continue to do so (or at least try), those that couldn't/wouldn't will not be affected by the new status.

 

The issue of no free testing after March may leave some who would previously have tested then isolated out in "the wild" with COVID, but then again we're moving into warmer weather and the past two summers have shown the virus is much less prevelent at this time of year.

Edited February 22, 2022 by Seb1780

[Ditto]

If I can cross it to an island, and then destroy the bridge, sounds good.

 

Between 13 March 2020 and 11 February 2022, there have been 122,122 excess deaths above the five-year average in England and Wales

 

What's the profile of those deaths over the months? I'm sure it's not steady state so understanding the picture more clearly would provide more meaningful context to the current discussion.

 

*** EDIT, BTW, would you go if the island didn't have internet connection but the mainland did? The reason I ask is, in some ways it encapsulates the analogy of a more restrictive environment versus the so-called living with the virus ***

Edited February 22, 2022 by Ditto

[Ditto]

Yes, I thought it was that the legal requirement to isolate has been downgraded to just 'advice'.

 

The trouble with advice, is it really will only be adhered to by those with the means and sense of propriety to do so... and they probably would have whether it was advice or a legal requirement.

 

Most of those who don't, wouldn't have anyway regardless, because honestly though, did anyone ever get arrested for going outside when they had Covid? I remember some high profile cases of fines for breaking 'lockdown' as such, but none for breaking a 'quarantine'... and I'm guessing this also only applied to those who'd been told to isolate after taking an official PCR?

 

I agree, but I like to think those with that sense of propriety are still in the majority. Unfortunately those that don't have that tend to dominate the news and it can skew perceptions. It's also why, in spite of the recent announcements, it won't be an overnight change in behaviour because behavioural impact isn't solely as a result of law changes.

[elsiegee40]

SSP will revert to how it was pre pandemic. None until day 5 which means a lot of employees who probably can’t afford to do otherwise will continue to work unless they’re too ill.

[mikeprice]

Without free tests a lot of people will never actually know they have Covid

 

assuming that they have the sort of DNA etc that has mild symptoms

 

My probelem is that Mrs mikeprice got a letter 2 years ago which I interpret as

IF SHE GETS IT SHE DIES!!!!!

 

I know she has had vaccines and all that - plus they know more about how to treat it now etc etc etc

 

but she seems to have suddenly been taken off the 'extremely clinically vulnerable' list with no notice

 

and now every Tom Dick and Harry - however they identify just to be PC - will be wandering around with no idea if they are infectious

 

but we are told to be especially careful about people who might be vulnerable

 

so does anyone know

a) someone who can make lightweight large neon sign for her to carry suspended over her head to let people know

b) Good places for a forest burial as I may need to organise one

 

 

Yes yes yes - I know I worry too much - it has been mentioned - but really!!

[Boredguy]

b) Good places for a forest burial as I may need to organise one

 

If you contact theregister and ask for Simon, he might know of a good spot, and supplier of rolls of carpet.. oh you weren't meaning you wanted to bury other people who don't choose to be sensible...

[MbroTech]

Same with the immunosuppressed. A colleague has had 4 vaccinations as in the extremely vulnerable group, but has been told they may still end up with no immunity after being jabbed due to the medications needed for other conditions.

[Ditto]

Earlier in the thread, we touch upon excess deaths. Not directly related, but I'm currently building skills on Power BI, but related to excess deaths, there is an excellent example of Power BI in action - https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiYmUwNmFhMjYtNGZhYS00NDk2LWFlMTAtOTg0OGNhNmFiNGM0IiwidCI6ImVlNGUxNDk5LTRhMzUtNGIyZS1hZDQ3LTVmM2NmOWRlODY2NiIsImMiOjh9

 

It's fascinating to explore the data - as an example, look at the data for 'Location of Death' - the visualisation of that data is quite revealing.

[Koldov]

I guess the thing is, it is practically impossible to be completely 'safe'.

 

As discussed earlier there have been I'm sure, people wandering around in the full knowledge they have Covid and equally plenty of people who are spreading it unwittingly as they are asymptomatic (and not testing/wearing masks/keeping safe distance/washing hands). At its peak of over 200K infections per day (and this only being those that tested and reported), you can estimate a huge number were still being infected by those people, otherwise how do 200k people a day get infected (if everybody is taking precautions/testing and self-isolating)...? Because a lot of people weren't!

 

I've read these figures (new infections) have to be treated as a very rough estimate in that it only represents those that have actually tested and reported (so plenty more are likely infected and by the same token reduced figures could just mean less people testing and reporting), meaning true infection figures can never be fully represented. I'm just trying to make the point that a lot of people have been spreading Covid anyway, even with testing, 'preventative' measures and laws. Yes, infections may well go up now the last of those are being removed (as those without even a modicum of common sense may well now feel they can go back 'down the pub'), but it is down to the individual concerned to determine how or if that will affect them.

 

I'm lucky I am pretty much a hermit, I don't go shopping, I have no friends, I don't go out anywhere, don't go to concerts, don't go down the pub, I don't go on holidays or day trips, I don't go out to eat, I rarely visit family.

 

At work, everybody knows not to come into the office and I won't be visiting classrooms with children in any time soon...

 

Actually, this has nothing to do with the pandemic, I am just generally an introvert, with mild agoraphobia (oh, and I'm also a grumpy old git) and don't ever really feel the need to do those things so I haven't had to adjust my lifestyle at all (I've secretly been practising for this all my life - although I thought it would be a zombie apocalypse). ..

 

So I am super low risk, right?

 

However, I do have an OH (obviously reading the above I know you're thinking... lucky girl) and she does all of those 'normal' things... so there is still a higher chance she could get infected and therefore so could I, luckily she is reasonably sensible but there is still a risk.

 

Unfortunately, unless you are willing to go and live on a remote mountain/island and be completely secluded (I wish), there is no way to avoid what other people do (as in most other parts of life). The only thing you can do if at all possible, is reduce the risk, protect yourself however you choose and make the sacrifices of not seeing friends/family and not going out (unless absolutely necessary). I will continue to do so as it's actually my choice to live like that anyway, so I don't really get the whole getting back to 'normality' thing.

 

My OH says "some people actually need to do 'normal' things and 'have a life' dear"... but I just choose to stay in (and in turn that protects my life - from Covid... as much as is reasonably possible, not from like a car accident, or a jet plane plane crashing into my house in the middle of the night apparently)...

 

EDIT: Due to the error pointed out by @Ditto (for the peak infection rates I incorrectly typed as 2K when it was 200K).

Edited February 22, 2022 by Koldov

[Ditto]

Just on the 2k peak infections a day, I think it was 200k, but to be honest, the gov pubished figures are effectively a sample which I wonder if it is becoming a smaller and smaller sample. Increasingly, I'd rely on the ONS survey where I would trust they use an appropriate sampling technique to get the most useful value - although I haven't researched it and you could get a degree on sampling techniques! An interesting discussion from a GP whilst on the radio whilst doing the school run. It was emphasised about the importance of continued monitoring and I detected a concern around a big drop in testing in terms of spotting flare ups and/or variants breaking through. Also had a chat with a surgeon friend who is at home as he can't do his electives as beds aren't available. Covid is behind it, but whole wards are closed with an outbreak so that's current frontline impact. His biggest concern is the rules and subsequent behaviours being dropped too fast. I think this in many ways is the change challenge we are all having deal with. To me, and I've been cautious throughout this pandemic, it does feel a rapid change. Perhaps if figures improve in the next 5 weeks, it'll feel different at the time. Take just one data point, hospitalisations. I know there is a lag from infections, but they are still very high at over 1,000 per day. If they continue to drop at current rates, by April they could be much lower, even below a hundred, but we will have to wait and see. My feeling is that it won't get that low and in England, I think we may see an impact of the Omicron BA.2 variant. Edited February 22, 2022 by Ditto

[Norphy]

So, after two years of being careful, somehow managing to avoid it thus far and a month before the legal restrictions get lifted in Scotland, my son takes a LFT this evening and it comes up positive. Both my partner and I are showing as negative but we’re taking PCR tests tomorrow to be on the safe side.

 

Sprog has a bit of a temperature and a sore head, but otherwise he seems ok. He’s upset that he’s missing some school activities that he was forward to more than anything I think.

 

God damn it.

[Danp]

Me too, avoided it the whole time, youngest daughter was unwell last week and tested positive on Thursday, I tested positive last night

[mavhc]

Need to get the children vaccinated asap, they're the main way it's spreading.

[kennysarmy]

If I can cross it to an island, and then destroy the bridge, sounds good.

 

Between 13 March 2020 and 11 February 2022, there have been 122,122 excess deaths above the five-year average in England and Wales

 

Do you think this was due to a global pandemic?

[mavhc]

Do you think this was due to a global pandemic?

 

Either that or people getting run over by traffic due to rolling their eyes too much at the idiots who spouted from the internet like weeds.

[Ditto]

Need to get the children vaccinated asap, they're the main way it's spreading.

I'm not convinced it's that simple. This article discusses countries that are vaccinating children under 12. Putting the listed countries of Germany, Spain, Greece, Hungary along with the UK in to ourworldindata shows cases per million and UK is the lowest.

 

 

With an ever increasing number of reinfections and more evidence vaccines are protecting against severe infection, but weaker evidence that it stops the spread, whilst vaccinating under 12's might have some impact on spread, it's likely to be short term and needs to be weighed up against the risk to those children.

[FN-GM]

Apparently I am “immune” girlfriend who I live with had it and I managed to dodge the bullet! 2 RAT test and a PCR confirmed it.

 

She gave it to her manager - that raised a few questions!!

Edited February 23, 2022 by FN-GM

[mavhc]

You've got to account for how many children are vaccinated, when, the current rate in the country, the restrictions, and how many people have previously been infected, which is highest for uk

[Ditto]

You've got to account for how many children are vaccinated, when, the current rate in the country, the restrictions, and how many people have previously been infected, which is highest for uk

Indeed, and allowing for that as best possible, I remain unconvinced it's as simple as "get the children vaccinated asap" have as dramatic a difference on transmission as you suggest. Besides, there are other factors to take into consideration before such a blanket approach with the next generation of custodians of the planet.

 

I don't also accept it is correct to just say UK has the highest number of people who have had an infection. Just a few seconds on https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#coronavirus-country-profiles shows that Greece, Spain and Germany have a higher recorded rate per 1m of population. Of course, as pointed out on that site

"Due to limited testing, the number of confirmed cases is lower than the true number of infections". To what extent for each country I've no idea, but in the UK, it can't be due to lack of opportunity to date.

Edited February 23, 2022 by Ditto

[Ditto]

A small numerical positive - hospitalisations as reported on Gov site show they have dropped to below a 1,000 per day (for 19th Feb 2022). It's the first time it has been below a thousand since mid December last year. I'm hoping the downward trend continues and the admission remain low longer term.

[Duranis]

A small numerical positive - hospitalisations as reported on Gov site show they have dropped to below a 1,000 per day (for 19th Feb 2022). It's the first time it has been below a thousand since mid December last year. I'm hoping the downward trend continues and the admission remain low longer term.

 

That is reassuring and hopefully it continues that way. This is pretty much the only figure I'm watching now as it seems to be the only reliable one and an indicator of where we are actually at.

[Norphy]

So, after two years of being careful, somehow managing to avoid it thus far and a month before the legal restrictions get lifted in Scotland, my son takes a LFT this evening and it comes up positive. Both my partner and I are showing as negative but we’re taking PCR tests tomorrow to be on the safe side.

 

Sprog has a bit of a temperature and a sore head, but otherwise he seems ok. He’s upset that he’s missing some school activities that he was forward to more than anything I think.

 

God damn it.

 

Had PCR tests yesterday. GF tested positive, my test came back inconclusive. Retaking it at lunchtime

[mavhc]

Indeed, and allowing for that as best possible, I remain unconvinced it's as simple as "get the children vaccinated asap" have as dramatic a difference on transmission as you suggest. Besides, there are other factors to take into consideration before such a blanket approach with the next generation of custodians of the planet.

 

I don't also accept it is correct to just say UK has the highest number of people who have had an infection. Just a few seconds on https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#coronavirus-country-profiles shows that Greece, Spain and Germany have a higher recorded rate per 1m of population. Of course, as pointed out on that site

"Due to limited testing, the number of confirmed cases is lower than the true number of infections". To what extent for each country I've no idea, but in the UK, it can't be due to lack of opportunity to date.

 

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?facet=none&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=Cumulative&Relative+to+Population=true&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=GBR~DEU~GRC~ESP was the option I picked

 

Are any other countries doing sampling to determine antibody existence per person?

 

Another great reason to get vaccinated is to support the vulnerable, a minor cost to yourself, a massive help to your immunocompromised classmate

[Ditto]

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?facet=none&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=Cumulative&Relative+to+Population=true&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=GBR~DEU~GRC~ESP was the option I picked

 

Are any other countries doing sampling to determine antibody existence per person?

 

Another great reason to get vaccinated is to support the vulnerable, a minor cost to yourself, a massive help to your immunocompromised classmate

 

My error - the charts I posted appear to have been 7-day rolling-rates - apologies. However, taking your chart I added EU countries in alphabetically order and selecting Austria as the first it showed a higher rate than UK, so I stand by the statement UK isn't the highest. Ultimately I'm not sure it matter that much, but without knowing each countries testing strategies, it would be fallacy to draw black and white conclusions.

 

I don't understand the meaning of your antibody question - could you explain? Is it rhetorical? If you know the answer do let us know. Are you talking about antibodies regardless of whether via vaccine or infection?

 

In terms of social benefits of mass vaccinations it's fairly clear, but JVCI advice, in my view rightly, is based on the benefits versus vaccine risks by age cohorts.

 

For some context, my wife and I are treble vaccinated, 2 children single vaccinated. We all got covid post vaccine at different times. The youngest had it the worst against normal expectations and was just shy of an A&E visit. We have close family relatives who have reacted badly to vaccines in the past, including a sibling who the GP subsequently advised not to pursue further vaccination (not Covid vaccine). I have friend who's daughter (child) ended up in ICU as a result of the covid vaccine. Another friends daughter (adult) had an anaphylactic shock reaction a week after the vaccine. Both are rare and known side-affects, but for the individuals and relatives extremely scary times.

 

Both my children are advised against a 2nd jab right now due to recent infection. When the time comes, I'm broadly in favour of a second dose. My wife is weighing it up and she works in depth in this field. We'll probably go ahead, but our motivation will be to protect our children, not for social benefit. Maybe that's not particularly altruistic, but I think the majority of parents protect their own first - human nature if you like.

 

So to your classroom analogy, suppose a class of 30 children were to get covid. In the main they will all survive and generally have mild symptoms. If they were all vaccinated, the symptoms are likely to be less severe on average. But, if you are the parent of the 1 child that has an extreme reaction as a result of vaccination that results in death, you live with that thereafter. If you are the parent of a child that didn't vaccination and the same outcome happened, it's the same, you live with that thereafter. Whole society numbers don't capture or convey the decision making for individuals, they can however inform the decision making.

 

In the case of 'whole' society, I've no doubt that universal vaccinations would have the most significant benefit the the 'whole'. However, in the scenario where we have had the vaccine roll-out by vulnerability cohorts, and a series of variants, including the current one that seems to infect widely in spite of vaccination, along with, at best, marginal benefits to those in the 5-12 age range (and I accept the wider benefit to elder relatives up to a point) I just feel it is too simplistic to go ahead with a 'vaccinate them all as fast as possible'.