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Coronavirus: General discussion (see opening post for rules)

Dos_Box

By Dos_Box
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psydii

psydii

Posted
Posted (edited)

My ex-boss literally co-authored one of the (to paraphrase) "what to do if a novel airbourne pathogen is in the population" documents that this government completely failed to act upon. They also had the pleasure of working with Boris's administration in London when we were flying highly infectious people out of Africa a few years ago (I'm being vague to avoid search engines). This government's failure to respond swiftly and adequately to COVID-19 was unfortunately not a surprise to me.

 

It was clear by late January this was going global. Many organisations who understand risk were already readying their work from home plans. Many friends at smaller organisations were were working from home from the start of March. People who fly around for their jobs, were grounded from February and our neighbours (doctors who hold senior advisory (not covid related) roles to Government) told us to shield our vulnerable children weeks ahead of the lockdown.

 

The country as a whole was late going into lockdown for one reason. However, excuses will be given, and blame dodged.

 

Coming out out lockdown is necessary. And we should already be, but for the damage of being late to start the lockdown. I really recommend people look at the "Hammer and the Dance"(1). This virus is not going away, and we need to carefully develop herd immunity while maintaining a shield for the most vulnerable. For it to work, however the government, public heath authorities, and the population must respond rapidly to localised outbreaks.

 

I fear that the current guidance around an outbreak in a school requiring 2 incidents in a 14 day period is too optimistic. Classrooms are in my semi-informed opinion a worst case environment for spreading this airbourne pathogen. For reference, 1 hr in a restaurant of 145m2 containing 83 customers with 1 infected person resulted in 10 further infections(2). The restaurant has a person-density similar to a classroom.

 

The first localised lockdown, in Leicester, has taken effect and schools were implicated in the spread:

"An "unusually high" incidence of coronavirus in children in Leicester prompted ministers to shut down the city's schools.

 

Matt Hancock, the Health Secretary, said extra testing carried out to contain a surge in virus cases revealed that a large number of children had become infected.

 

The Government has refused to disclose the full extent of the disease among children, but the news will raise concern over the prospects of opening schools fully in September as pledged."

 

(3)

 

They shut them down quickly - but the inference here is that even in schools socially distancing with bubbles in effect (and 1/2 the kids) it will rip through.

 

This week London is up 8.3% (300 cases), Leicester was up 600 cases when they re-introduced lockdown.

 

1.https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

2. https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0764_article

3. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/06/30/unusually-high-coronavirus-rate-children-caused-leicester-lockdown/

Edited by psydii
Ditto

Ditto

Posted
Posted
After the daily briefings were stopped, I tracked the data slides for a few days. These then stopped last weekend. I recently discovered the following https://coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/cases - now this is a beta site, but do yesterday's cases indicate a big jump in England for the number of cases? Looking at other data sources, I think it's an error, or more the case the preceding data bars or wrong. Anyone able to work out what's going on here?
Steve21

Steve21

Posted
Posted (edited)

Not sure if you're reading that wrong or what not :p yesterdays was actually a lot lower than normally, as they changed "again" how they report figures

 

Date reported 02-07-2020

Daily cases 576

Cumulative cases 283,757

 

Date reported 01-07-2020

Daily cases 829

Cumulative cases 313,483

 

 

And:

 

The methodology for reporting positive cases changed on 2 July 2020 to remove duplicates within and across pillars 1 and 2, to ensure that a person who tests positive is only counted once. Due to this change, and a revision of historical data in pillar 1, the cumulative total for positive cases is 30,302 lower than if you added the daily figure to yesterday’s total.

 

Numbers of lab-confirmed positive cases throughout this website now include those identified by testing in all settings (pillars 1 and 2).

 

Overall it's been pretty average 800-1000 cases a day, and 150~ deaths average

 

*Edit - Ah unless you're reading the older nations bars rather than the data? If so then yeah that refers to my 2nd point above

 

 

Steve

Edited by Steve21
Ditto

Ditto

Posted
Posted
Not sure if you're reading that wrong or what not :p yesterdays was actually a lot lower than normally, as they changed "again" how they report figures

 

 

 

And:

 

 

 

Overall it's been pretty average 800-1000 cases a day, and 150~ deaths average

 

*Edit - Ah unless you're reading the older nations bars rather than the data? If so then yeah that refers to my 2nd point above

 

 

Steve

Thanks for looking. Yeah, I should have said it was the nation bars. I had picked up on the removing double counting, but still not got my head around the Cases by Nation which show an uptick. Like you, I thought figures were running close to a 1,000 per day (which as an aside is high compared to other Euro nations when they relaxed lockdown, but perhaps that reflects the amount of testing) so the figures pre July 1st seem low.

Steve21

Steve21

Posted
Posted
Thanks for looking. Yeah, I should have said it was the nation bars. I had picked up on the removing double counting, but still not got my head around the Cases by Nation which show an uptick. Like you, I thought figures were running close to a 1,000 per day (which as an aside is high compared to other Euro nations when they relaxed lockdown, but perhaps that reflects the amount of testing) so the figures pre July 1st seem low.

 

It literally is that they are bodging figures "again" :p

 

They didn't include all "pillars" in the figures showed by nations before, so for example only tests done by government facilities not private labs were shown:

 

In England, laboratories submit test results to PHE through the Second Generation Surveillance System (SGSS). Cases received from laboratories by 12:30am are included in the counts published that day. Pillar 2 cases for England are also now included in the SGSS data feed from PHE

 

So if you look at the figures for the 1st (pre-change), you'll only get Pillar 1 cases (apart from Wales etc etc):

 

CovidTests.png

 

Yet now today, if you look at the new data it'll include all Pillar 2s:

CovidTests2.png

 

And yet magically, only Englands version of the figures suddenly get massively affected :p

CovidTests3.png

 

Short version, bodged figures, not increase cases! :)

 

Steve

jthompson

jthompson

Posted
Posted

A good article from the BBC diving I to comparisons between the UK and other countries. No NZ, but the comparison to Italy is especially interesting.

 

BBC News - Coronavirus: What do global death patterns reveal about the UK?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53279391

 

Looking back on the first pandemic waves in the UK and Italy, while the health system in parts of northern Italy were overwhelmed, there were negative excess deaths in the Lazio region containing the capital Rome, 400 miles away. Despite Covid-19 hitting Italy with little notice weeks before the UK, Italy prevented that profound hit to Lombardy spreading to most of the rest of Italy. There have been significantly fewer registered Covid deaths in the entire Lazio region around the Italian capital - 841 in a population of 5.9 million - than in any region of England or nation of the UK.

stevejp

stevejp

Posted
Posted
I mean, I wouldn't wish it on anybody. But if that's what it takes for a government to take it seriously...

 

Quick, someone arrange a face-to-face meeting between him and the orange one...

6Foot2

6Foot2

Posted
Posted

 

Hundreds of drones lit up the night sky in the South Korean capital for a spectacular light show last week. The aerial vehicles delivered many motivational and safety messages, and also gave thanks to frontline healthcare workers.
  • Thanks 2
paulkerton

paulkerton

Posted
Posted
NOTE: Not a political post: Another 'Covfefe' moment from Donald Trump!

Link:

[Donald Trump Text Tweet]

 

[ATTACH=CONFIG]58571[/ATTACH]

 

:lol:

 

The twisted logic of Trump is just something incredible to behold. Its no wonder so many of his ventures have gone under.

6Foot2

6Foot2

Posted
Posted

Link: Mystery surrounds Hove Lawns stone coronavirus tribute [The Argus]

 

Hove Lawns Stone Coronavirus Tribute.jpg

 

AN ENORMOUS tribute to those who have died from coronavirus in the UK has been created on a public green.

 

The number 44,602 has been crafted from thousands of stones on Hove Lawns.

 

This is the number of people who have died after contracting coronavirus according to Public Health England figures from 5pm on Wednesday.

 

The touching tribute was spotted on the lawns this morning.

 

Each number is almost 10ft tall, and each individual stone has a number written upon it.

 

These appear to represent each confirmed death from coronavirus in the UK.

 

But the person, or group, responsible for the stone pattern is currently a mystery...

  • Thanks 2
6Foot2

6Foot2

Posted
Posted
Is a little schadenfreude allowed here?

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-53319517

 

More coronavirus based schadenfreude?

 

Link: Dozens of Mississippi lawmakers have coronavirus after weeks of refusing to wear masks [CNN.COM]

 

If you've been in contact with your state lawmaker in Mississippi, you may want to get a coronavirus test.

 

About one in six state lawmakers have tested positive for the coronavirus, according to Dr. Thomas Dobbs of the Mississippi Health Department.

 

For weeks, politicians flouted mask recommendations inside the state Capitol. Twenty-six state legislators have now tested positive for Covid-19, including Lt. Gov. Delbert Hosemann and State House Speaker Philip Gunn. Neither man wore a mask at a bill signing at the governor's mansion last week.

 

Mississippi Governor Tate Reeves said on Tuesday that he and his daughters tested negative for the virus, tweeting they had "limited contact with the people who were diagnosed."

 

This spike in infections follows an especially busy few weeks in the Capitol. Members have met to discuss the state's budget, an unemployment crisis, and in June, the legislature passed a historic bill to remove the Confederate emblem from the state's flag. Many visitors and advocates attended the Capitol to watch the debate and to protest...

  • Thanks 1

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