Coronavirus: General discussion (see opening post for rules)

[LeMarchand]

Your school could ask staff to continue to wear masks, but I suspect most will not as it would be difficult to enforce.

 

One of mine is asking staff to carry on wearing them.

[Ditto]

Its reassuring that they are reporting a fall but the fall they are reporting is nowhere near what is being shown elsewhere. To me this is showing the exact opposite, the rapid fall is due mostly to other factors and is very little to do with an actual drop in the number of people infected.

 

Unless I'm completely misreading things? If the ONS study is showing a drop that isn't even half of what is shown elsewhere then surely there is something very wrong with at least one of these numbers? Especially as the ONS numbers up until the changes to testing and other malarky were generally a pretty close match?

That's an interesting observation and I will, time permitting and subject to the data being available have another look. You could be right and me completely wrong. However, on the graph the @mavhc produced there are a few things that need considering. A few points to note.

 

Are the cases figures specimen date or date reported? Omicron is a big factor here and it was only mid December that it became dominant UK. The number of ONS data points are few, so I'd be wary of drawing too much of a conclusion from the single last figure comparing with cases. Yes, it looks like a close correlation on the graph before then, but the scales are very different and if the percentages were convert to case numbers, the difference would not show so starkly. The percentage number ONS talk about equate to case numbers that are massively higher than the cases reported data. The case numbers around Christmas and New Year were very volatile due to a number of factors. Often they would have England but not other devolved countries but there were other factors impacting published numbers around holiday periods. I don't know if the data set is a 'fixed' set because of this, but the very 'spiky' graph suggests it's not. Perhaps a 7 day average would paint a clearly picture or using a trendline might help.

 

I would think in a couple more weeks the picture will be clearer. I would note however that the last few days of cases (date reported) are not dropping as dramatically as the previous week. With a 7 day average at around 90,00 0 per day, that is a worry.

 

In terms of government decision making, I believe they are now much more focussed on hospitalisation rates than case rates and even deaths, but that's due to the vaccines and other treatments.

[korifugi]

We're (a University) still wearing masks and distancing - we've been very cautious through this entire thing.

 

We've still got a lot of staff working remotely - academic staff and business professionals that don't need to be are only really on campus when required.

[Rob_D]

We've seen in only the 3rd week of the new term alone, the impact covid is currently having on staff, students etc. God knows what's going to happen know. We'll wait a few weeks term for the govt U-turn.

The point is that the govt (rightly or wrongly) is trying to move into a long term/post pandemic solution. I don't see a U turn on policy. Rather, the response would be that if illness related staff absence is effecting the school, then it's up to the school to decide on and enforce appropriate mitigations.

[Norphy]

As Adults we are being trusted to wear them when necessary.

 

Because that worked so well the last time.

 

I won't argue that going by the published daily stats, things appear to be improving but "improving" does not mean "good". Infections are still at more than 100,000 confirmed daily cases, 1700 hospitalisations a day, close to 19,000 in hospital with it, R rate is still 1.2-1.3. I admit that I'm about as far from an expert on this as you can get but going by that, surely we should be mandating wearing masks in indoor public settings until all those numbers come down a bit?

[LeMarchand]

surely we should be mandating wearing masks in indoor public settings until all those numbers come down a bit?

 

I really struggle to see why there is such an objection to mask wearing. Unless it's because it's hard to demonize Muslim women for wearing them when everybody is doing it.

[mikeprice]

A few days late - but the idea of stopping pupils needing to wear masks in class is just yet another reason why I cannot risk 'helping out' by starting teaching again

 

apart from the fact that I would be a rubbish supply teacher anyway that is!

 

not sure they have put together the concepts about

a) no longer wear masks

b) ask retired - and hence older - people to 'help out' by starting to teach again

 

what could possibly go wrong!

[6Foot2]

A few days late - but the idea of stopping pupils needing to wear masks in class is just yet another reason why I cannot risk 'helping out' by starting teaching again

 

apart from the fact that I would be a rubbish supply teacher anyway that is!

 

not sure they have put together the concepts about

a) no longer wear masks

b) ask retired - and hence older - people to 'help out' by starting to teach again

 

what could possibly go wrong!

 

An alternative approach:

 

Link: Covid: New Zealand PM Ardern cancels wedding amid Omicron wave - BBC News

[mikeprice]

An alternative approach:

 

Link: Covid: New Zealand PM Ardern cancels wedding amid Omicron wave - BBC News

 

Nah - not doing that

 

getting married once was enough stress and bother not doing it again - let alone arranging it then cancelling it and being expected to sort it all out again

 

 

 

and anyway - I think Mrs mikeprice would be rather annoyed if I even thought about getting married - frogs would be the least of my problems - I have always suspected a rather large percentage of women from around here have rather too much belief in things outside the normal accepted belief system as taught in schools - in spite of being good Catholic girls when they enter a church (other main stream religions are available - not my area of expertise)

[6Foot2]

Nah - not doing that

 

getting married once was enough stress and bother not doing it again - let alone arranging it then cancelling it and being expected to sort it all out again

 

 

 

and anyway - I think Mrs mikeprice would be rather annoyed if I even thought about getting married - frogs would be the least of my problems - I have always suspected a rather large percentage of women from around here have rather too much belief in things outside the normal accepted belief system as taught in schools - in spite of being good Catholic girls when they enter a church (other main stream religions are available - not my area of expertise)

 

Not going far wrong if the Daily Excess doesn't like it!

 

 

Edited January 23, 2022 by 6Foot2

[Ditto]

I'm normally wary of early predications but I'm going to and I reckon case numbers will be rising before the weeks out. I'd be delighted to be proved to be wrong. I suspect it's not the data point that will drive policy, I think that's firmly on hospital capacity.

[stevejp]

I'm normally wary of early predications but I'm going to and I reckon case numbers will be rising before the weeks out. I'd be delighted to be proved to be wrong. I suspect it's not the data point that will drive policy, I think that's firmly on hospital capacity.

 

There’s a policy?

Edited January 23, 2022 by stevejp

[Andrew_C]

I'm normally wary of early predications but I'm going to and I reckon case numbers will be rising before the weeks out. I'd be delighted to be proved to be wrong. I suspect it's not the data point that will drive policy, I think that's firmly on hospital capacity.

According to the Zoe study, SE and SW are rising already.

[asteer]

I'm normally wary of early predications but I'm going to and I reckon case numbers will be rising before the weeks out. I'd be delighted to be proved to be wrong. I suspect it's not the data point that will drive policy, I think that's firmly on hospital capacity.

 

Policy has always been predicated on Hospital admissions/capacity and deaths. In early spikes there was a link between infections and deaths, with infection rates impacting deaths around two weeks later. With the recent spikes, while there has been an increase in deaths it is nowhere as large as that from the first wave, and dosent really track as clear.

 

COVID is a disease that we will have for us with the rest of our natural lives, we won't eradicate it (we have only eradicated one disease in history (smallpox) and even a disease such as measles which has a high R rate and can be very serious, had its vaccine approved in 1963 and we havent eradicated it).

 

The main figures to look at are the number of deaths above the normal 5 year average, its also worthwhile looking at the deaths of people WITH COVID against the number of people who die FROM covid. These are two seperate figures. If for example you had covid and recovered, but then die in a car crash 27 days later you go into the covid stats.

 

At somepoint we will need to stop the daily reporting of covid deaths as it starts to not mean anything. We had 1,223 people die of flu in 2019, and we experiance a large number of flu deaths per year, but other than the ONS stats we dont normally report this wider unless it is excessive (https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/influenzadeathsin20182019and2020)

[Duranis]

COVID is a disease that we will have for us with the rest of our natural lives, we won't eradicate it

 

True, however some of the best minds in the world are working on ways to mitigate the dangers and improve both prevention and treatment. This is going to take time though and taking whatever measure we can to protect people while this happens seems like the sensible thing to do in my opinion.

 

its also worthwhile looking at the deaths of people WITH COVID against the number of people who die FROM covid.

 

Looking only at the deaths caused directly by covid doesn't exactly fill me with hope. Over 1,000 people died in the uk in the first week of this year and it doesn't look like that is going down. The data is currently incomplete past 16th Jan but on that day 255 people died directly from Covid. Again this is people dying directly from covid, not dying from any old cause that just happened to have had covid in the last 28 days.

At somepoint we will need to stop the daily reporting of covid deaths as it starts to not mean anything. We had 1,223 people die of flu in 2019

 

I wish people would stop trying to compare it to flu. If you took every case of someone dying from Flu in the last 5 years Covid would have it beat in less than 2 months. And that's only counting cases where covid was a listed on the death certificate. One day with improved vaccines, better treatments and hopefully less dangerous mutations it will get there. Until that point though it is a mistake to compare it to flu in any way shape or form.

[LeMarchand]

Over the weekend, I noticed that mask wearing was already slackening. Saw a couple in Tesco who were probably Friends of Laurence Fox. The guy was picking his nose...

 

At least, due to high positives, all 3 of my sites are not following the rules and keeping most of the previous precautions in place.

 

OTH Mme LeMarchand is required to head into the office starting 1 day/week from next week. I wonder why the emphasis on discouraging wfh? I've read a few articles suggesting that productivity is usually up, and it saves firms money. I know it's not for everyone, but wonder why there isn't more flexibility. Especially as some people have moved location as they saw wfh as completely viable option. Could it be that voters in middle management have realised that they don't have people to manage?

[Ditto]

Last 3 boxes of LFD's are the old style tickle the tonsils sort. The OCON nasal only ones are far less uncomfortable.

[Ditto]

With half the household doing daily LFTs and the other half doing day 5/6 tests, we are getting through more than usual LFT's. The last few batches are the old style tonsil and nose ones - anyone else finding this to be the case.

[the_quick]

Was just sent home, started coughing this morning, really badly. HR said I need to go home and book PCR test. Been testing myself regularly with LFT on Weds and Sundays, yesterday negative. Was told that it is growing among the students and many of them tested negative with LFT but positive with PCR. Wife works in a different school, cases are growing there as well, now looks lie mainly among teachers. Not sure if this is best time to tells schools not to mandate mask wearing.

[mavhc]

Don't worry, we'll solve this by not sending people home when they have covid

[6Foot2]

I have just heard from a former workmate. She's very unwell. In her words:

 

"...terrible cough, sore throat, eye infection etc. I seem to be combining Covid, flu and strep throat symptoms - worst sore throat I’ve ever had..."

 

I don't think she fully recovered from the bout she had a few weeks ago. She's not one to complain lightly.

[paulkerton]

With half the household doing daily LFTs and the other half doing day 5/6 tests, we are getting through more than usual LFT's. The last few batches are the old style tonsil and nose ones - anyone else finding this to be the case.

 

The last but one I ordered was the old school tonsil and nose ones. Most recent was back to the nose only.

My father has picked up some from pharmacies, and they have been all kinds of strange new names and techniques!

[paulkerton]

I've read a few articles suggesting that productivity is usually up, and it saves firms money.

I know several councils in particular who've realised just how many buildings they can get rid of if they just bung £40 a month for "home costs" into people's wage packets, and ask them to work from home unless otherwise needed.

Hot desks have become real rather than a far fetched fantasy in the public sector!

[jmak]

The most believable figures I've seen suggest that only about 9,000 people out of the 150,000 (other figures are available) had no underlying health conditions and were under 65.

 

It might be because I have a vested interest as someone who is considered to have an underlying health condition. My corrected life expectancy gives me another 46 years. My condition affects 1% of people. The same is true for people with diabetes and a myriad of conditions which modern medicine can completely control. Most people who make it to 65 can expect to live another 20 years. "Even" those who "bring it upon themselves" through lifestyle (5'10 and over 15 stone makes you obese and there are a lot of people in that category) aren't expecting to drop dead this year.

 

The whole thing "if they have covid and then get hit by a bus 27 days later"? In 2019 there were 1752 road deaths in the UK. That's less than a week's worth of covid deaths at the minute.

 

Pure mendacity trying to claim that covid deaths haven't been and aren't still "really" due to covid. Anyone trying to make that argument loses all credibility and doesn't contribute to "getting back to normal". My previous posts should show that I don't think we should stay locked down and that we should be considering the harm that has been caused by the restrictions. Pretending that we don't need to do anything won't get us any closer to that.

[LeMarchand]

I know several councils in particular who've realised just how many buildings they can get rid of if they just bung £40 a month for "home costs" into people's wage packets, and ask them to work from home unless otherwise needed.

Hot desks have become real rather than a far fetched fantasy in the public sector!

 

Mme LeMarchand was hotdesking at the local council well prior to Covid - and they have sold more property since.