Coronavirus: General discussion (see opening post for rules)

[LeMarchand]

I don't know about kids not being able to socially distance; just walked into a room where 5 TAs were in a circle so tight that they may as well have been hugging.

[paulkerton]

I don't know about kids not being able to socially distance; just walked into a room where 5 TAs were in a circle so tight that they may as well have been hugging.

This is the problem with relying on "common sense"

People clearly don't have it.

Remember the VE Day Conga?

[localzuk]

There's no such thing as common sense. That was proven when people called 999 about KFC running out of chicken.

[6Foot2]

There's no such thing as common sense. That was proven when people called 999 about KFC running out of chicken.

 

Common sense, you say?

 

 

Link:

[paulkerton]

There's no such thing as common sense. That was proven when people called 999 about KFC running out of chicken.

 

Indeed.

[LeMarchand]

On site today and saw a "Stay Alert" sign on the motorway matrix. Are there gangs of wild Covids lurking by the motorway, ready to pounce on unsuspecting drivers?

[caffrey]

Stay alert, the world needs more lerts

 

 

Been called back in this Thursday \ Friday - press 'F'

[6Foot2]

On site today and saw a "Stay Alert" sign on the motorway matrix. Are there gangs of wild Covids lurking by the motorway, ready to pounce on unsuspecting drivers?

I'd have thought that staying alert was a prerequisite for motorway driving, indeed driving generally...

 

[Rob_D]

On site today and saw a "Stay Alert" sign on the motorway matrix. Are there gangs of wild Covids lurking by the motorway, ready to pounce on unsuspecting drivers?

Isn't staying alert on the motorway generally a good idea anyway?

 

Edit: Beaten to it, I really should refresh the page before I reply an hour later.

[the_quick]

Common sense, is not so common. And each person has own idea of common sense. For me it is just a way for the PM to say later, we have second wave, because people were not sensible - not his fault !

[psydii]

The brutal truth is that the only way out of this is for a herd immunity to emerge. We do not yet have a vaccine. While there are hopeful candidates, it is still very likely we will not have a vaccine for 12+ months yet (and possible we never get one).

 

Without a vaccine, herd immunity comes from the herd being exposed, the vulnerable dying and the resistant surviving. During this time one can try to shield the most vulnerable so the virus passes through the herd, and then once 80-90% have either had it or demonstrated immunity, the most vulnerable can return to society with relative safety.

 

The way the govt have handled this is awful. Lock down should have started weeks earlier, and only then they should have talked about how to develop the herd immunity. But now three months into the pandemic, because not all work can be done remotely and because without increasing person to person contact we will not get the herd immunity, we all need lockdown to relax (slightly, carefully).

 

This move is politically astute/cynical, the relaxation is more likely to appeal to those who tilted pro-brexit, and the unions can be blamed for schools not actually re-opening as per his announcement. There will be much more back and forth of attempts to get people out and about again over the coming couple of months. Its a dance[1].

 

 

 

[1] If you haven't already, you should read The Hammer and the Dance. It is long, so jumping right to the section labelled '4. The Hammer and the Dance' part takes you to where we are now. (key point "The more they wait, the heavier and longer the hammer". We waited another week before applying the hammer, which is why we are going to be weeks/months late to dance.)

Edited May 19, 2020 by psydii

[paulkerton]

The brutal truth is that the only way out of this is for a herd immunity to emerge.

 

We don't even know if catching it affords immunity currently. It's a novel virus. That's the problem.

The way out was to use our position as an Island nation to screen everyone and everything coming in and out of the country so it could be properly controlled.

We didn't do it because herd immunity was the strategy in order to attempt to protect the economy before protecting the people, and now we have an entirely avoidable natural disaster.

[Garacesh]

We don't even know if catching it affords immunity currently.

Currently, all signs are pointing to no for the majority of people. I've seen articles saying people do develop antibodies although they aren't immune, it makes future infections easier to deal with. But then again, we're also seeing mutations now, soo...

[psydii]

We didn't do it because herd immunity was the strategy in order to attempt to protect the economy before protecting the people, and now we have an entirely avoidable natural disaster.

 

Boris did not believe the impact of "do nothing and wait for herd immunity to emerge" would be as bad as he was being told by the CMO and senior civil servants.

 

Lockdown, get R0<<1, then go for herd immunity is the successful strategy being used by those 12-6 weeks ahead of us. It is a strategy built from models produced by our own civil service in the 00's.

 

As for immunity, from the statistical point of view R0 would be *much* higher now in many countries if there wasn't at least significant immunity conferred by previous infection. The medical science view on re-infection though is not yet clear, nor how the virus's mutations are impacting symptoms, transmutability and developed immunity.

[TwistedHelixis]

The brutal truth is that the only way out of this is for a herd immunity to emerge.

Seeing as immunity in other viruses can last a few weeks or months, this is not really a long term plan unless we get lucky and we become immune for life.

[psydii]

It’s how we’ve survived/lived with virii before. We now have the technology to save/protect many more than in the past from novel strains.

 

I’m not sure we have any alternative?

[6Foot2]

 

Link: https://www.google.com/maps/@32.838387,-97.2376913,3a,15y,34.89h,82.99t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sVWZw_VKwe9wbcstFcjWLJw!2e0!7i13312!8i6656

[6Foot2]

Link: Cambridge University: All lectures to be online-only until summer of 2021 [bBC News]

 

There will be no face-to-face lectures at the University of Cambridge over the course of the next academic year due to coronavirus, it has been announced.

 

However, lectures will be available to students online and "it may be possible to host smaller teaching groups in person" if they meet social distancing requirements, the university said.

 

University campuses have been closed this term by the Covid-19 outbreak.

 

Cambridge will review the decision if advice on social distancing changes.

 

A statement from it read: "The university is constantly adapting to changing advice as it emerges during this pandemic.

 

"Given that it is likely that social distancing will continue to be required, the university has decided there will be no face-to-face lectures during the next academic year.

 

"Lectures will continue to be made available online and it may be possible to host smaller teaching groups in person, as long as this conforms to social distancing requirements.

 

"This decision has been taken now to facilitate planning, but as ever, will be reviewed should there be changes to official advice on coronavirus."

 

All teaching at the university was moved online in March, while exams are being carried out virtually...

[chris11256]

Link: Cambridge University: All lectures to be online-only until summer of 2021 [bBC News]

 

I wonder if we'll see a rise in the number of people deferring for a year. I know that personally I wouldn't be willing to start uni and pay £9K a year just for online lectures.

[6Foot2]

.

[caffrey]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/19/only-5-of-teachers-think-it-safe-to-reopen-english-schools-poll-shows

[the_quick]

Cambridge, as shown above, already decided to do most of teaching online, we heard that Eaton school is not opening either - but clearly it is safe to open state schools?

Mind you you probably could count more on social distaning among Uni students than school age children? But I guess as student you are grown up enough just to use online lectures, I would find it really hard

[Andrew_C]

, we heard that Eaton school is not opening either - but clearly it is safe to open state schools?

 

How many of the kids in your school fly in from the far east 3 times a year?

 

How many kids do you have in each of your dormitories?

 

I get your point; however you are comparing apples and oranges.

[Garacesh]

Cambridge, as shown above, already decided to do most of teaching online, we heard that Eaton school is not opening either - but clearly it is safe to open state schools?

To be fair, if it were safe to open public schools (which I'm still not convinced it is...), it would be safe to open independents... But since they're independents they're allowed to choose not to.

(Then again, a fair few councils, mine included, have instructed schools not to reopen in full capacity on June 1st, so..)

[TwistedHelixis]

My sons primary school is only opening for year 6 and my mate who works in a London uni was told he would be working from home until January at he earliest.