Coronavirus: General discussion (see opening post for rules)

[mikeprice]

Went down to the high street today and it was nice to see loads of the shops open again - it has felt a bit dead there recently.

 

Also good to see people obeying the social distancing guidelines and also the 'max people in this shop' notices on all the doors

[Ditto]

Jab 2 done (Pfizer). 10 more minutes and can drive home. 1 week and in theory I'm as protected as I can be, but will continue with all the usual rules. Will have to wait and see whether Autumn/Winter leads to a booster. Regardless, I will get common flu jab this year for the first time. Wonder when I will start to think I'm a pin cushion Edited April 16, 2021 by Ditto

[mavhc]

first vaccination rates have fallen a lot

was 500k, now 85k

total vaccinations per day have fallen too, from 600k to 440k

[elsiegee40]

first vaccination rates have fallen a lot

was 500k, now 85k

total vaccinations per day have fallen too, from 600k to 440k

 

Mostly due to supply problems. Rates should pick up again now they have opened up vaccines to the over 45s

[Ditto]

Mostly due to supply problems. Rates should pick up again now they have opened up vaccines to the over 45s

Very true and in the main, the numbers, the lumpiness of supply and the focus on second jabs in April is exactly what we were told to expect. I decided for interest to download the data or the Gov site and produce a couple of charts below. One is with a linear trend line, the second a polynomial trend line. It shows the value of charts over raw numbers, but even then you need to be careful interpreting the results. The first would indicate continual growth in rate, the second shows a clearer picture. I suspect neither would be good for projections. With Moderna coming on stream now, I'm optimistic things will improve further.

I expect the vast majority of countries across the globe would be delighted to be in the same position as the UK at this point with their vaccination roll-out.

An update on post jab2 symptoms after approaching the 24 hours mark. Definitely a stronger reaction, sore arm at injection point, but nothing more than the feeling of a punch and so far no flu like symptoms and slept fine. Fingers crossed it stays this mild over the next few days.

 

***Edit - could someone remind me how you control the image size so it is more visible without having to click on it! ***

Edited April 17, 2021 by Ditto

[Ditto]

I guess this was a 1 in 10 chance...

 

[jmak]

I hope the Moderna can help the first vaccine rates a bit. I'm really keen to get my second AZ dose at some point in May, but given the efficacy numbers that came out this week for a single dose, I'm slightly uncomfortable with shipping millions of doses from India where they appear to have a much greater need at they minute...

[kennysarmy]

At one point will there be more chance of me testing positive using a lateral flow test in school by way of false positive than by way of me actually being positive due to the low numbers of infections in the South-West?

[mavhc]

Depends how well do you do the test. However the precautionary principle says it's better to be not infected and working from home than infected and spreading it around

[Rob_D]

Depends how well do you do the test. However the precautionary principle says it's better to be not infected and working from home than infected and spreading it around

I'd have thought a badly done/contaminated test would be likely to show false positive than negative (but I'm no doctor, so what would I know).

[jmak]

A reasonable explanation of why the accuracy of a test is only part of the information you need to know whether the result you get is likely to be right:

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/18/obscure-maths-bayes-theorem-reliability-covid-lateral-flow-tests-probability

 

From this article, you'd need to test 16,000 people to find one positive case in London with the current disease prevalence:

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/15/rapid-covid-testing-in-england-may-be-scaled-back-over-false-positives

 

That starts to look quite expensive and inefficient.

Edited April 19, 2021 by jmak

[Ditto]

A reasonable explanation of why the accuracy of a test is only part of the information you need to know whether the result you get is likely to be right:

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/18/obscure-maths-bayes-theorem-reliability-covid-lateral-flow-tests-probability

 

From this article, you'd need to test 16,000 people to find one positive car in London with the current disease prevalence:

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/15/rapid-covid-testing-in-england-may-be-scaled-back-over-false-positives

 

That starts to look quite expensive and inefficient.

Great links! I love the fact the first quickly takes you to Bayes's theorem. I'm pretty good with logic, but I remember spending quite a bit of time getting my head fully straight on this particular topic, and perhaps have let it get less clear over time! If anyone finds this easy or fascinating, head for a career as a data scientist!

[Ditto]

Any interesting point in the article is to it's reference to a follow up PCR test after a LFT positive. I'm a bit behind on my governance work, but what's the current situation here in schools - and is it different in primaries and secondary. A follow up PCR brings much greater accuracy - but I'm not sure if that's now a common approach.

[witch]

Horrified to hear on the radio today that apart from a few vulnerable groups - mostly health workers and the like - South Africa has yet to start rolling out a vaccination program for the general populace. I expect they are not the only country in this state either.

[bald_pig]

Any interesting point in the article is to it's reference to a follow up PCR test after a LFT positive. I'm a bit behind on my governance work, but what's the current situation here in schools - and is it different in primaries and secondary. A follow up PCR brings much greater accuracy - but I'm not sure if that's now a common approach.

 

You're supposed to follow up with a PCR, but you have to isolate regardless of the PCR result so it's a bit pointless really, other than for government statistics.

[Andrew_C]

Frankly, if I get a positive LF test, I'll wait 1/2 an hour and do another. If both are positive, then I'll worry about PCR / isolation.

[Garacesh]

You're supposed to follow up with a PCR, but you have to isolate regardless of the PCR result so it's a bit pointless really, other than for government statistics.

 

A lot of the rules are like that, at the moment. I suspect the government are scared of the new random flavours we've got?

Used to be you could take a PCR and stop isolating after coming back from abroad, now you have to take a PCR but isolate for the full duration regardless of the result

[Boredguy]

You're supposed to follow up with a PCR, but you have to isolate regardless of the PCR result so it's a bit pointless really, other than for government statistics.

 

Unless I'm mistaken (which is more than likely) but I thought that only only time that the PCR negative result was being "ignored" was if students had gotten a positive LF test when we all came back last term and that was only for the 3 tests that were done in school.

If students get a Positive LF now, but a subsequent negative PCR then the isolation is not required.

[bald_pig]

Unless I'm mistaken (which is more than likely) but I thought that only only time that the PCR negative result was being "ignored" was if students had gotten a positive LF test when we all came back last term and that was only for the 3 tests that were done in school.

If students get a Positive LF now, but a subsequent negative PCR then the isolation is not required.

 

You may be right, that was the last info I heard!

[6Foot2]

"The perfect sport in the current pandemic!"

 

 

[elsiegee40]

Mr gee40 booked a table outdoors at a local hostelry.

 

The confirmation email said that tables seated six and would be shared by up to 6 individuals from different households to fill them.

 

Booking immediately cancelled.

[Davit2005]

Mr gee40 booked a table outdoors at a local hostelry.

 

The confirmation email said that tables seated six and would be shared by up to 6 individuals from different households to fill them.

 

Booking immediately cancelled.

 

Not really the idea is it, to just fill up tables with random people that do not know each other.

Edited April 20, 2021 by Davit2005

[Ditto]

Mr gee40 booked a table outdoors at a local hostelry.

 

The confirmation email said that tables seated six and would be shared by up to 6 individuals from different households to fill them.

 

Booking immediately cancelled.

Bonkers! You wouldn't accept that in normal times. I can understand it's been very tough on their industry, but if others don't see or read the notification, it is going to make for a very uncomfortable situation when three couples turn up to find they've been paired! The risk isn't probably any great than meeting 2 other pairs of your family, but it isn't really the point. On that point, it is beyond the wit of MiL to understand that mixing with family (people you know) isn't lower risk just because they are family. I think it's well understood that family transmission, particularly in multi-generational households, is one of the significant transmission routes.

[stevejp]

 

Booking immediately cancelled.

 

With a full and frank (if not blunt and direct) explanation, I trust?

[elsiegee40]

With a full and frank (if not blunt and direct) explanation, I trust?

 

Definitely. No punches pulled. No response either