Coronavirus: General discussion (see opening post for rules)

[jthompson]

~20% of UK adults not vaccinated. 1 out of every 5 adults feels like a lot. I wonder how that 20% breaks down in terms of can't vs won't vs not yet offered.

[BOOT]

I'm not vaccinated yet. Would if I could.

[Ditto]

I'm not vaccinated yet. Would if I could.

 

Interesting. Do you mind sharing your age and what happens when you try to book online. Whilst supply has been called out as 'choppy', I have not to date got the perception that supply is significantly holding back vaccine rates, but perhaps there is something to it?

[Norphy]

Interesting. Do you mind sharing your age and what happens when you try to book online. Whilst supply has been called out as 'choppy', I have not to date got the perception that supply is significantly holding back vaccine rates, but perhaps there is something to it?

 

It might not be a question of availability, there are other reasons you may legitimately not be able to get the vaccine, such as an allergy to one of its ingredients.

[BOOT]

I have a history of blood clots which doesn't help. Either way, nearest walk-in is 25 miles away. I may live out in the middle of nowhere... but there's a hospital down the road. You'd think they'd do jabs in there...

[JordanT91]

Well it's started. 1 positive teacher this morning. We've had a few kids come in yesterday with Covid in their household but of course they can come to school...

[paulkerton]

Well it's started. 1 positive teacher this morning. We've had a few kids come in yesterday with Covid in their household but of course they can come to school...

 

The new guidelines which mean students can come in even if their household has Covid are about as useful as a chocolate fireguard (around a fireplace badly sold to you!)

It's only a matter of time before the new guidelines produce absolute chaos in schools.

[Ditto]

Case numbers appear volatile currently. Over the last week, weekday by weekday comparisons have shifted as follows, starting today and working backwards:

[TABLE=width: 64]

[TR]

[TD=class: xl65, width: 64, align: right]-21%[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=class: xl65, align: right]-11%[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=class: xl65, align: right]0%[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=class: xl65, align: right]9%[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=class: xl65, align: right]16%[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=class: xl65, align: right]56%[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=class: xl65, align: right]11%[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

Or graphically with absolute numbers:

 

 

So rapid growth last Monday, significant drop this Saturday. I think we need another two or three weeks to see what impact schools in England returning, along with college and universities have.

Edited September 12, 2021 by Ditto

[LeMarchand]

Mask wearing/socially distancing outdoors seems almost gone, and in shops I've noticed that the "That sort of thing is only for poor people" and "You can't make me do nuffink I don' wanna" types seem to have more in common than they'd like (and don't wear masks) in our area.

[elsiegee40]

Mask wearing in shops round here is still pretty good. The exception being Go Outdoors, which is a huge warehouse of a place to be fair, where I think I was the only one in a mask.

 

I popped into M&S food hall which is virtually next door and everyone was in a mask.

[smurfomatic]

Mask wearing in local Sainsbury's was less than 50% today, does seem to be a case of "I've had my jabs, don't need to bother any more" though there were some younger people without masks who aren't likely to be double jabbed.

[Andrew_C]

School getting very baggy, with some kids only wearing them if caught and told to.

[Ditto]

Patchy around here too - I definitely felt being the odd one out wearing a mask in the petrol (sorry, not yet e-car @mavhc) station recently.

[mavhc]

Charging at home, no one's breathing on my cable except me

 

Now at 37.5k cases per day.

 

"the risk of hospitalisation among Delta cases is 2.26 times greater compared to Alpha" https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1014926/Technical_Briefing_22_21_09_02.pdf

 

"variant from 1 October 2020 as of 30 August 2021" Delta: 68.1% of all sequenced cases ever, 90% of cases now are Delta.

 

50% of Delta infected under 50 are unvaccinated, 10% of those over 50

64% of Delta infected deaths under 50 are unvaccinated, 30% of those over 50

[Ditto]

50% of Delta infected under 50 are unvaccinated, 10% of those over 50

64% of Delta infected deaths under 50 are unvaccinated, 30% of those over 50

I'm not sure I follow these two, especially the first. Is it also saying 40% of Delta infected were vaccinated to some degree?

 

On the second line, is it saying 6% of Delta infected deaths were vaccinated? If yes, what's the over/under 50 data for those?

[mavhc]

Of the people infected with Delta: Under 50s: 50% were unvaccinated. Over 50s: 10% were unvaccinated.

 

Of the people infected with Delta who died: User 50s: 64% were unvaccinated. Over 50s: 30% were unvaccinated.

 

Being vaccinated doesn't stop you getting infected/dying, although it does make it less likely.

[Rob_D]

I'm not sure I follow these two, especially the first. Is it also saying 40% of Delta infected were vaccinated to some degree?

On the second line, is it saying 6% of Delta infected deaths were vaccinated? If yes, what's the over/under 50 data for those?

I read it at 4 statement:

Of the <50s with delta, 50% are unvaccinated.

Of the >50s with delta, 10% are unvaccinated.

Of the <50s who died, 64% are unvaccinated.

Of the >50s who died, 30% are unvaccinated.

[jmak]

I read it at 4 statement:

Of the <50s with delta, 50% are unvaccinated.

Of the >50s with delta, 10% are unvaccinated.

Of the <50s who died, 64% are unvaccinated.

Of the >50s who died, 30% are unvaccinated.

I read it like this too. The other thing to bear in mind is that if the vast majority of people in a group are vaccinated, then you'll end up with the majority of people suffering severe illness or death being vaccinated people. If 100% of the group were vaccinated, then 100% of people catching it and those becoming ill and dying will be vaccinated - it doesn't mean it wasn't worth vaccinating.

[Ditto]

I read it at 4 statement:

Of the <50s with delta, 50% are unvaccinated.

Of the >50s with delta, 10% are unvaccinated.

Of the <50s who died, 64% are unvaccinated.

Of the >50s who died, 30% are unvaccinated.

 

Got it. So;

Of the <50s with delta, 50% are vaccinated

Of the >50s with delta, 90% are vaccinated

Of the <50s who died, 36% were vaccinated

Of the >50s who died, 70% were vaccinated

 

Of course, comparison of the percentage values for <50s against the >50s is unwise with more information, such as absolute numbers. If we achieved 100% vaccination rates, every infection and death would be from vaccinated people, so 100%, but absolute figures versus no vaccination would look very different.

For me, the most impactful item from the report was strong evidence for Delta being about 2 times as likely to lead to hospitalisation as Alpha. I had heard conflicting views on this previously. Not sure if the mortality rate is so dramatically different, but treatments will have improved over time too.

[Ditto]

Vaccine minister says all 12 -15 year olds to be offered 1 Pfizer jab from next week. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58552769

Some high level numbers relating to this here - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57888429

 

With two boys in that age bracket, for me it's not a black and white decision, unlike the decision to have a jab myself.

 

The risk of myocarditis (and pericarditis) is notably higher for adolescent boys than girls, so the numbers the BBC publish would look different if split by gender/age. Getting covid also brings a higher risk of myocarditis; some research shows it to be higher than the risk caused by the vaccine. But actively taking a vaccine that shows and increased risk, versus the passive possibility of getting covid and increasing risk brings another dimension to the decision.

 

I'd very much like to hear the thoughts of others, particularly from other parents here with children in this age bracket, to understand how you will come to a decision to accept or reject a jab when offered to your child.

[ICTDirect_Dave]

I'd very much like to hear the thoughts of others, particularly from other parents here with children in this age bracket, to understand how you will come to a decision to accept or reject a jab when offered to your child.

It would be a far harder decision for me with regard to having my kids vaccinated. The risk seems significantly higher than in older children and adults.

It's one thing having the jab yourself and taking a 1:1,000,000 risk for your own good and others. But, taking that decision for your child knowing well the risks are more significant is hard.

 

I don't know what I'd choose right now and I'm thankful that I have 10 and 6 year olds and don't need to have the discussion this time around!

 

A friend of ours developed myocarditis after her second Pfizer shot. She required a couple of days hospital monitoring to just make sure it didn't develop into anything worse. She has since fully recovered, but she was absolutely terrified for the duration. It certainly brought home the fact that there ARE risks to these shots. It doesn't stop my opinion that vaccinating all adults is necessary. But if those risks are higher in children, then as a parent, I'd be very cautious about having them get a Covid vaccine.

[elsiegee40]

BBC local news last night reported that a primary in Lamberhurst was returning to the bubble system after a high proportion of children tested positive.

 

I can’t find this backed up on the web though!

[JordanT91]

BBC local news last night reported that a primary in Lamberhurst was returning to the bubble system after a high proportion of children tested positive.

 

I can’t find this backed up on the web though!

 

Each school has a contingency plan for when the amount of infections goes over a certain threshold. This will vary based on LA etc. but for us, if we have 2 positive cases within a 'group' (registration class, english group, after school club etc.) within 10 days then we contact the LA and begin escalating our control measures. This would likely be reintroduction of bubbles for the whole school and wearing of facemasks in communal areas by staff.

[Ditto]

Charging at home, no one's breathing on my cable except me

 

Now at 37.5k cases per day.

I'm not sure if this is cases by specimen date, or by date report, or whether it is the day rate or 7 day average, but to my surprise, as of today we have 7 continuous days of lower cases compared to the day of the week before. 7 day average case rate by date reported had a August/September high of just shy of 39k on 5th September, but average 7 day average stated today is under 32k. As reported yesterday however, we are still at a high rate and heading into Autumn/Winter with a more contagious variant.

 

With warnings today about the risk of number explosions over the next few months, continued risk reduction seem to be be sensible approach.

[jmak]

Vaccine minister says all 12 -15 year olds to be offered 1 Pfizer jab from next week. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58552769

Some high level numbers relating to this here - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57888429

 

With two boys in that age bracket, for me it's not a black and white decision, unlike the decision to have a jab myself.

 

The risk of myocarditis (and pericarditis) is notably higher for adolescent boys than girls, so the numbers the BBC publish would look different if split by gender/age. Getting covid also brings a higher risk of myocarditis; some research shows it to be higher than the risk caused by the vaccine. But actively taking a vaccine that shows and increased risk, versus the passive possibility of getting covid and increasing risk brings another dimension to the decision.

 

I'd very much like to hear the thoughts of others, particularly from other parents here with children in this age bracket, to understand how you will come to a decision to accept or reject a jab when offered to your child.

For once I don't have any complaints about the politicians - it clearly is a very nuanced decision with no perfect or even straightforward answer.

 

FWIW I think the CMOs have got it right; the health benefits are very closely balanced, but once you take into account societal benefits and - more importantly when we're thinking about the implications for individual children - the educational benefits, it's probably worth the risk.

 

Key factors for me:

1) The risk of suffering myocarditis appears to be greatly reduced by only having a single dose of the vaccine.

2) The chances of long-term or serious consequences of myocarditis caused by vaccine in young healthy people seem to be very low.