Coronavirus: General discussion (see opening post for rules)

[6Foot2]

Link: Oscar de la Hoya: Comeback fight off as former world champion hospitalised with Covid-19 - BBC Sport

 

Former six-weight world champion Oscar de la Hoya has withdrawn from his comeback fight against Vitor Belfort after being hospitalised with Covid-19.

 

The 48-year-old was due to fight the former UFC champion in Los Angeles on 11 September, 13 years after retiring.

 

He posted a video from his hospital bed on Friday to confirm the news.

 

"What are the chances of me getting Covid? I've been taking care of myself and this really, really kicked my ass," he said.

 

De la Hoya also said he was fully vaccinated against Covid-19 before contracting the virus...

[jmak]

Any idea what the rationale is for giving primary age kids the annual flu vaccine? I'm not aware of a notable number becoming seriously ill every year - I assumed it was to protect the community, especially their grandparents. A possible precedent?

[elsiegee40]

Any idea what the rationale is for giving primary age kids the annual flu vaccine? I'm not aware of a notable number becoming seriously ill every year - I assumed it was to protect the community, especially their grandparents. A possible precedent?

 

They’re super-spreaders. By giving them the vaccine the population as a whole is less likely to get flu.

 

The precedent was set for giving vaccines in schools long before that though. I had rubella and BCG (tuberculosis) vaccines at school both to protect me and the community in general

Edited September 5, 2021 by elsiegee40

[jmak]

They’re super-spreaders. By giving them the vaccine the population as a whole is less likely to get flu.

 

The precedent was set for giving vaccines in schools long before that though. I had rubella and BCG (tuberculosis) vaccines at school both to protect me and the community in general

Which is why I'm surprised it doesn't seem to have been taken into account by the JCVI. It puts the CMOs in a difficult position and even if they decide to proceed a lot more parents will now have doubts.

 

It was the precedent for vaccinating where there's no expected benefit to that age group rather than using schools as a venue that I meant.

[Ditto]

Which is why I'm surprised it doesn't seem to have been taken into account by the JCVI. It puts the CMOs in a difficult position and even if they decide to proceed a lot more parents will now have doubts.

 

It was the precedent for vaccinating where there's no expected benefit to that age group rather than using schools as a venue that I meant.

I agree, it is a tough decision. JCVI have been clear with their conclusion that it was based at looking at that age range only and not the wider community impact. It would be interesting to know if the same is true for flu vaccination. I also agree it makes the CMOs position harder and could impact take up rate if the government go ahead for 'community' benefit. On the upside, it does at least show a level of independence from the JCVI which I think is healthy.

 

They're are, AFAIK, a few factors taken in to account with flu and flu vaccination. Firstly, flu is does not have the same age based profile in terms of impact as covid, so the risk of flu on young, whilst still lower compared to adults, is different. Under 2's are still higher risk though. Flu vaccines have been around for a while now, so there's a lot more data and risks are better understood. The risk with some Coronavirus vaccines leading to myocarditis or pericarditis is probably a factor versus the risk form Covid.

 

However, taking all that in to consideration, CDC in the USA have come to a different conclusion, but they also mandate the continued use of masks and other strategies. I don't feel with term starting, that the level of risk reducing action is as high as it might be in the UK. I feel it would be better to have stronger DfE guidance as was the case up until the end of last academic year, and not get to the point where it is left to school discretion on the big decisions.

[elsiegee40]

On the Eurotunnel train home.

 

Got a lateral flow test done on Friday morning at a pharmacy. Uploaded the pdf certificates to the Eurotunnel website and completed our online passenger locator forms on Friday evening.

 

Absolutely no problems with border control… a short queue and a few minutes at each.

 

We booked Flexiplus which made a massive difference to the UK border control queues. Those with standard bookings faced a much longer wait.

[mavhc]

In England:

35% of 18-24 year olds haven't had a vaccine

37% of 25-29 year olds

34% of 30-34 year olds

30% of 35-39 year olds

[paulkerton]

In England:

35% of 18-24 year olds haven't had a vaccine

37% of 25-29 year olds

34% of 30-34 year olds

30% of 35-39 year olds

 

And what about the 40s to 60s? They seem to have the most vocal component when it comes to being "antivax"

 

70% of the (eligible) population has had it's first jab, so 35-39 seems in line.

[Ditto]

And what about the 40s to 60s? They seem to have the most vocal component when it comes to being "antivax"

 

70% of the (eligible) population has had it's first jab, so 35-39 seems in line.

For a recent, thorough analyses of vaccine rates, I'd recommend looking at https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19latestinsights/vaccines. The ONS includes research and data on vaccine hesitancy. The ethnic differences remain significant.

 

One stand out dataset in there is the percentages by age (modelled) showing antibodies. All age ranges bar 16-24 are over 96%. I wonder how many of those in the lower age ranges have had and recovered from covid have decided against vaccination.

[Ditto]

Another article, a couple of months old, that is worth reading is https://post.parliament.uk/covid-19-vaccine-coverage-and-targeted-interventions-to-improve-vaccination-uptake - apparently the government have worked with dating app providers to increase uptake!

[mavhc]

And what about the 40s to 60s? They seem to have the most vocal component when it comes to being "antivax"

 

70% of the (eligible) population has had it's first jab, so 35-39 seems in line.

 

24% of 40-44

18% of 45-49

14% of 50-54

11% of 55-59

9% of 60-64

7.5% of 65-69

5.5% of 70-74

4.5% of 75-79

4.5% of 80-84

4.5% of 85-89

6% of over 90

[BOOT]

The difference in vaccination rates looks about in line with the length of time that group has been eligible, with a noted jump at the point they closed half of the initial vaccination centres.

[Ditto]

NHS England published at https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2021/09/COVID-19-weekly-announced-vaccinations-02-September-2021.pdf on 2nd September. Their age based graph shows the following and that only as at 29 August.

 

For 40-45, it's showing over 90% having had first dose and over 80% for second. Even at a month old, these data are showing much high percentages across the age groups than the other numbers presented. What's the source of the other, lower figures - perhaps they are out of date? Or maybe the population numbers used are different - I do believe their were some updates with the NHS numbers recently for some stats recently, but I don't think it could have made such a large difference.

[mavhc]

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations?areaType=nation&areaName=England

[Ditto]

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations?areaType=nation&areaName=England

 

Thanks for that - I hadn't seen the graph before. I can't say I particularly like it as a style of presentation, I don't think a heatmap is the best tool for this data set.

 

Just looking at the 40-49 age range, for England it shows 76.1% for 40 - 44 and 81.8% for 45 - 49. For Scotland it shows 91.9%.

 

The wording at the outset perhaps leads to an explanation of the difference. It states "For English areas, these are provided for population surveillance purposes, and only people who have an NHS number and are currently alive are included. The denominator used is the number of people on the National Immunisation Management Service (NIMS) database. They will differ from NHS England daily outputs, which provide operational data for the management of the vaccination programme. For Scottish areas, the denominator used is the mid-2020 population estimate, published by National Records of Scotland. For this reason, comparisons should be made with caution." My highlighting.

 

I can't say it really leaves my with the feeling of a full understanding of why the difference is so large.

[Ditto]

BBC reporting 80% of over 16's double jabbed- the data can be baffling at times!

[mavhc]

80.1% https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations

 

Problem is it's only going up by 1% per week, and single doses only by 1% every 2 weeks.

 

Everyone needs to find an unvaccinated person and help them get vaccinated, then we'll have less of a problem

[Danp]

I run cover for the school now, 2nd day of term and one full time teacher has had a positive test.

[Rob_D]

80.1% https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations

Problem is it's only going up by 1% per week, and single doses only by 1% every 2 weeks.

Everyone needs to find an unvaccinated person and help them get vaccinated, then we'll have less of a problem

 

So what you're saying that by mid January we'll have reached 100%. That's pretty good going if you ask me.

[mavhc]

We were doing half a million a day, should have taken 9 months. 12 once you include children.

[elsiegee40]

We were doing half a million a day, should have taken 9 months. 12 once you include children.

 

It’s unrealistic to expect that vaccine rollout would be linear and that exactly the same number would be given every month, week and especially every day.

 

Real life doesn’t work like that. There was bound to be a period when things were going very fast and then a slow down. And ultimately 100% uptake is never going to be achieved.

[mavhc]

Should be faster than linear as we build more vaccine production factories.

 

Given the billions lost per day it's always going to be worth it.

[elsiegee40]

Should be faster than linear as we build more vaccine production factories.

 

Given the billions lost per day it's always going to be worth it.

This is humans being given vaccines, not factories building widgets. It doesn’t matter how much production is ramped up; the rate of vaccination will decline as the number of those eligible falls (unless of course you rigidly enforce everyone having to go for an appointment at a precise time/date).

[mavhc]

They're not busy, everything was closed.

 

A large centre was doing about 1 person every 30 seconds perhaps, so 1000/day, over 300 days, so 300k doses in total. Let's pick the last 20% of first doses, plus the last 10% of second doses, as that's what's left now, so you have 100k people to schedule, for 100 days. 33k will have a range of a week to pick from, and 66k will have a couple of weeks. The 33k should have already booked their 2nd dose time, so you're left with about 5000 doses for 66k people to pick a time for during each week. Once you get to the very end of the queue there might be a problem, but when you have 10:1 ratio per week, it would be fully booked if everyone had to get one and there was no supply constraint.

 

There's always been a constraint of production though. We didn't have enough Pfizer, had to wait until Sep for a delivery

[elsiegee40]

They're not busy, everything was closed.

 

A large centre was doing about 1 person every 30 seconds perhaps, so 1000/day, over 300 days, so 300k doses in total. Let's pick the last 20% of first doses, plus the last 10% of second doses, as that's what's left now, so you have 100k people to schedule, for 100 days. 33k will have a range of a week to pick from, and 66k will have a couple of weeks. The 33k should have already booked their 2nd dose time, so you're left with about 5000 doses for 66k people to pick a time for during each week. Once you get to the very end of the queue there might be a problem, but when you have 10:1 ratio per week, it would be fully booked if everyone had to get one and there was no supply constraint.

 

There's always been a constraint of production though. We didn't have enough Pfizer, had to wait until Sep for a delivery

 

You’re entirely missing my point about the humans involved. They won’t robotically go for vaccination at exactly the proscribed intervals. Even without taking anti-vaxxers and supply issues into account it was never going to happen. These things always have a peak period and trail off.