Coronavirus: General discussion (see opening post for rules)

[LeMarchand]

Masks are being worn in the outdoor market and in shops and restaurants.

 

'Ow can zey smoke Les Gauloises if zey 'av to wear ze masks?

[jmak]

Currently in France on holiday. Drove over via Eurotunnel.

 

Printed off our covid passes just in case and it was useful to wave them at the border official.

 

We also uploaded our vaccination evidence to the French TousAntiCovid app. Every restaurant wants to scan the QR code from this before they’ll serve you.

 

Masks are being worn in the outdoor market and in shops and restaurants.

 

Motirways much quieter than usual and very few British cars. Not that many Belgians, Dutch or Germans either. It appears the French are choosing to holiday in France this year as the market is still too busy for my comfort.

 

We need to get a test done to come back, have worked out where and that we don’t need to book in advance.

 

We also have Day 2 tests waiting for us when we get home.

 

As we are staying in a house and the location is rural we are simply enjoying the good weather, wine and cheese … and a spot of bird watching in the Cevennes and the Camargue

How carefully did they check your covid pass at immigration? One of my doses is affected by this:

https://www.thelocal.fr/20210705/can-brits-vaccinated-with-astrazenecas-indian-produced-covishield-jab-come-to-france/

[elsiegee40]

How carefully did they check your covid pass at immigration? One of my doses is affected by this:

https://www.thelocal.fr/20210705/can-brits-vaccinated-with-astrazenecas-indian-produced-covishield-jab-come-to-france/

 

Out of date story. Both Mr gee40 and I were affected by that too, but France has since changed its mind. It isn’t a problem. [emoji4]

 

This is the updated story from the same site @jmak

https://www.thelocal.fr/20210719/explained-what-people-vaccinated-with-covishield-need-to-know-about-travel-to-france/

 

Also when you scan the QR codes for each vaccine into TousAntiCovid it was perfectly happy with both and ‘celebrated’ that I was fully vaccinated.

 

And as for checking… every person in the car can wave their phone at border control… or you wave the right number of bits of paper with 2 QR codes (1 for each vaccine) at them. They certainly don’t read it or scan the QR code… not at Eurotunnel anyway. We had bits of paper and it seemed to get us through quicker than those with phones.

Edited August 23, 2021 by elsiegee40

[jmak]

Thanks - should've known better. It came up at a family gathering and out of 10, I'm the only one who had AZ, so to follow on from the "it's great that we're all vaccinated - apart from jmak with his useless one that only half works" they took great delight in finding out that my batch number matched with the ones that won't let you leave the UK.

[6Foot2]

 

Oops!

[BOOT]

Anyone else concerned upon returning to work?

[mw184]

I am. We have had all staff in the hall for training for the first time in over a year today. And we had no social distancing so we were sat right next to each other. I am clinically vulnerable so sat at the back and at the end of a row but even then didn't feel very safe. All of our staff appear to be double jabbed but still doesn't stop it from being spread etc. Must admit felt very anxious about it all.

[mavhc]

Considering that only 15% of staff were wearing masks, and they're going on about washing hands still, yep.

 

2 weeks until 2nd highest peak in cases, 6 weeks until highest.

 

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2783099

 

In this cohort study of 730 index patients with a COVID-19 diagnosis and 8852 close contacts, transmission potential was greatest in the first 2 days before and 3 days after onset of symptoms in the index patient. When contacts received a diagnosis of COVID-19 infection, they were more likely to present asymptomatically if they had been exposed to an asymptomatic patient.

 

Lots of new variants being brought in from people coming back from their summer holidays, but will that be worse than the new variants we create at home by having so many hosts?

 

From Monday 16 August, people who are double jabbed or aged under 18 will no longer be legally required to self-isolate if they are identified as a close contact of a positive COVID-19 case

 

What are your plans for the next lockdown, anything fun?

[mw184]

We had no mask wearing in our place. Only myself and one other member of staff who is also vulnerable had them on and even then we got looks as if there was something wrong with us. I think most people in my place think it doesn't exist anymore. Going to be hiding in my office as much as possible to avoid the wave of inevitable cases that are going to hit. Scotland's data has proven that schools are major transmitters, and I believe they still have some more restrictions in place than we do.

[mavhc]

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.17.21262169v1.full.pdf

 

Opening windows during yard and lunch breaks only had minimal effect on the cumulative dose of

virions absorbed, with decreases in cumulative dose ranging from 1.1-fold to 1.2-fold depending on the

season and number of windows open. In contrast, opening one, two, or six windows all day long during

spring/summer decreased the cumulative dose absorbed 2-fold, 3-fold, and 7-fold, respectively,

compared to the baseline scenario. Keeping windows open all day was most effective in the winter, with

a 3-fold decrease in the cumulative dose absorbed when one window was fully open, a 5-fold decrease

when two windows were fully open, and a 14-fold decrease when six windows were fully open. Since

leaving windows wide open during the heating season is unacceptable (waste of heating energy), we

tested a 20 cm opening all day long leading to a 1.7-fold decrease in the cumulative dose when one

window was open, a 2.4-fold decrease when two windows were open, and a 5-fold decrease when six

windows were open. We also tested the opening of six windows at the end of each class leading to a 1.8-

(summer) and 2.1-fold (winter) decrease in cumulative dose.

 

The second intervention simulated was the use of HEPA filtration devices. We tested the recommended

5 air changes per hour (ACH),29 where two filters per classroom are needed (HEPA device each delivering

a flow rate up to 400 m3h

-1 of clean air), and an intermediate 2.5 ACH corresponding to one filter (Figure

2a). The 2.5 ACH option was as effective as two windows 20-cm open all day long during winter (2.5-fold

decrease). The 5 ACH option was even more effective with a 4-fold decrease in the cumulative dose

absorbed. The universal use of face masks was twice as effective, with an 8-fold decrease in the cumulative

dose absorbed (Figure 2b).

 

Combined interventions were generally the most effective. For instance, adding surgical face masks to

natural ventilation decreased the cumulative dose absorbed 8-fold compared to ventilation alone,

reducing the total cumulative dose 19-fold compared to the baseline scenario (Figure 3a-b). Similarly,

combining surgical facemasks and HEPA filtration led to an 18-fold decrease for 2.5 ACH and to a 29-fold

decrease for 5 ACH. Combining natural ventilation, surgical face masks and HEPA filtration reduced the

cumulative dose 30-fold for 2.5 ACH and 40-fold for 5 ACH compared to the baseline scenario.

 

We suggest to

install filters labeled H13 (≥99.95% efficiency) or H14 (≥99.995% efficiency), according to EN 1822

standard.

 

Until vaccination reaches all age groups, mitigation strategies such as

ventilation and face masks are especially warranted in unvaccinated and crowded populations in order to

prevent the rise of new and potentially more dangerous SARS-CoV-2 variants

[Ditto]

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.17.21262169v1.full.pdf

 

Opening windows during yard and lunch breaks only had minimal effect on the cumulative dose of

virions absorbed, with decreases in cumulative dose ranging from 1.1-fold to 1.2-fold depending on the

season and number of windows open. In contrast, opening one, two, or six windows all day long during

spring/summer decreased the cumulative dose absorbed 2-fold, 3-fold, and 7-fold, respectively,

compared to the baseline scenario. Keeping windows open all day was most effective in the winter, with

a 3-fold decrease in the cumulative dose absorbed when one window was fully open, a 5-fold decrease

when two windows were fully open, and a 14-fold decrease when six windows were fully open. Since

leaving windows wide open during the heating season is unacceptable (waste of heating energy), we

tested a 20 cm opening all day long leading to a 1.7-fold decrease in the cumulative dose when one

window was open, a 2.4-fold decrease when two windows were open, and a 5-fold decrease when six

windows were open. We also tested the opening of six windows at the end of each class leading to a 1.8-

(summer) and 2.1-fold (winter) decrease in cumulative dose.

 

The second intervention simulated was the use of HEPA filtration devices. We tested the recommended

5 air changes per hour (ACH),29 where two filters per classroom are needed (HEPA device each delivering

a flow rate up to 400 m3h

-1 of clean air), and an intermediate 2.5 ACH corresponding to one filter (Figure

2a). The 2.5 ACH option was as effective as two windows 20-cm open all day long during winter (2.5-fold

decrease). The 5 ACH option was even more effective with a 4-fold decrease in the cumulative dose

absorbed. The universal use of face masks was twice as effective, with an 8-fold decrease in the cumulative

dose absorbed (Figure 2b).

 

Combined interventions were generally the most effective. For instance, adding surgical face masks to

natural ventilation decreased the cumulative dose absorbed 8-fold compared to ventilation alone,

reducing the total cumulative dose 19-fold compared to the baseline scenario (Figure 3a-b). Similarly,

combining surgical facemasks and HEPA filtration led to an 18-fold decrease for 2.5 ACH and to a 29-fold

decrease for 5 ACH. Combining natural ventilation, surgical face masks and HEPA filtration reduced the

cumulative dose 30-fold for 2.5 ACH and 40-fold for 5 ACH compared to the baseline scenario.

 

We suggest to

install filters labeled H13 (≥99.95% efficiency) or H14 (≥99.995% efficiency), according to EN 1822

standard.

 

Until vaccination reaches all age groups, mitigation strategies such as

ventilation and face masks are especially warranted in unvaccinated and crowded populations in order to

prevent the rise of new and potentially more dangerous SARS-CoV-2 variants

Isn't this article uncertified by peer review and based on modelling, not real-world studies? I've no doubt the broad brush statement of increased ventilation and filtration is helpful, but to quote that number of data values as if they were fact isn't realistic in my view?

[mavhc]

No such thing as facts.

 

Of course it's based on modelling, apparently it's "unethical" to experiment on actual humans

[Ditto]

2 weeks until 2nd highest peak in cases, 6 weeks until highest.

The last two days (week on week) have shown a drop in case rates - perhaps you might like to recalculate as the 'model' has changed. Besides, the level of testing currently completely different to earlier 'highest' peaks, so not a good comparison.

Edited September 2, 2021 by Ditto

[elsiegee40]

We have had our French covid tests done - €25 per person - and tested negative. I suppose that means we had better return to the UK within the next 72 hours then

[Duranis]

Anyone else concerned upon returning to work?

 

Yep. Same as the other guy, had training on the first day, all crammed into the hall, including mid day staff. Out of the 50+ people I was the only one wearing a mask, no social distancing at all. Basically everyone pretending everything is back to normal despite nearly 900 people a day being hospitalized by it. As someone who's lungs are already in a mess it scares the absolute carp out of me.

Edited September 3, 2021 by Duranis

[LeMarchand]

Don't panic, folks! Any increase in cases will purely be down to the increase in testing.

[mavhc]

The last two days (week on week) have shown a drop in case rates - perhaps you might like to recalculate as the 'model' has changed. Besides, the level of testing currently completely different to earlier 'highest' peaks, so not a good comparison.

 

In what way is the level of testing completely different?

 

Which model has changed?

[Theblacksheep]

3rd in the world for new cases yesterday, probably due to the increase of cases since Scottish schools returned early. Here comes England...

[Ditto]

In what way is the level of testing completely different?

 

Which model has changed?

 

Q1 - I think you know the rate of testing has changed over time. Here is a visual comparison of testing and case recorded from the gov.uk site.

 

 

Q2. I presume you have a model for your last prediction? Perhaps the model doesn't need changing, just the data used for prediction.

 

The thing with data modelling, is you need to test and tune your model.

 

On your earlier comment "No such thing as facts"... in an earlier post you said people "need more facts". Why would you want to provide people with something that you claim doesn't exist

[Ditto]

3rd in the world for new cases yesterday, probably due to the increase of cases since Scottish schools returned early. Here comes England...

1st today! It's way higher than I'm comfortable with, but it isn't a per capita figure so this needs to be taken into account. I sure numbers of cases will rise with schools re-opening, how much is hard to know. How much that leads to an impact in the older age groups where the severity and risk is much higher, as are vaccination levels, is hard to judge. Monitoring the hospital admissions is going to reveal the picture over time.

[Ditto]

So JCVI have decided not to recommend vaccinating all 12 to 15-year-olds. This is a real tough decision to make a call on and a brutal example of science and ethics being considered together. As I understand it, the decision was one based on what is best that age range, not the wider community. I'm not surprised it has taken some time to get to a decision, and I can't see the government deviating from the recommendation.

[stevejp]

So JCVI have decided not to recommend vaccinating all 12 to 15-year-olds. This is a real tough decision to make a call on and a brutal example of science and ethics being considered together. As I understand it, the decision was one based on what is best that age range, not the wider community. I'm not surprised it has taken some time to get to a decision, and I can't see the government deviating from the recommendation.

 

Only seen the BBC report, but from what I’ve seen they’re doing everything they can to deviate from the report! Sajid Javid has already written to the four chief medical officers asking them to consider it carefully ‘from a broader perspective’.

Edited September 3, 2021 by stevejp

[Ditto]

Only seen the BBC report, but from what I’ve seen they’re doing everything they can to deviate from the report! Sajid Javid has already written to the four chief medical officers asking them to consider it carefully ‘from a broader perspective’.

Maybe you are right. Having now read the BBC report, perhaps going against the advice due to other considerations is more likely than I originally thought. I think it would be the first time they have gone against advice? Tough call, either way.

[Rob_D]

But you have to wonder how many parents are going to let their kids have a vaccine given what the JVC has said.

at this time the JCVI’s view is that the minimal health benefits of offering universal COVID-19 vaccination to children do not outweigh the potential risks.

(https://www.gov.uk/government/news/jcvi-issues-advice-on-covid-19-vaccination-of-children-and-young-people)

 

We've had a markedly lower percentage of consent for testing this Sept compared to January. (Although that may be because we started the testing before the official start of term)

[6Foot2]

Meanwhile, in FreedomLand™️:

 

https://m.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/ivermectin-deworming-covid-mississippi_n_612061bfe4b0ff60bf80dc14?ri18n=true

 

They don’t want to take a vaccine that’s successfully been given to millions of people around the world with mostly minor side effects but they’re quite happy to poison themselves with medication meant for cows. Genius.

 

Link: Gunshot Victims Wait as Horse Dewormer Overdoses Overwhelm Hospitals - Rolling Stone

 

The rise in people using ivermectin, an anti-parasitic drug usually reserved for deworming horses or livestock, as a treatment or preventative for Covid-19 has emergency rooms “so backed up that gunshot victims were having hard times getting” access to health facilities, an emergency room doctor in Oklahoma said.

 

This week, Dr. Jason McElyea told KFOR the overdoses are causing backlogs in rural hospitals, leaving both beds and ambulance services scarce.

 

“The ERs are so backed up that gunshot victims were having hard times getting to facilities where they can get definitive care and be treated,” McElyea said.

 

“All of their ambulances are stuck at the hospital waiting for a bed to open so they can take the patient in and they don’t have any, that’s it,” said McElyea. “If there’s no ambulance to take the call, there’s no ambulance to come to the call.”

 

People getting sick from ivermectin — especially as some people take a formulation of the drug used in livestock — has become so frequent that this month the Food and Drug Administration released a statement imploring Americans to stay away from the drug that has not been approved to treat or prevent Covid-19. “You are not a horse. You are not a cow,” the agency said while linking to an explainer about the dangers of ingesting ivermectin designed for livestock.

 

“Animal drugs are highly concentrated for large animals and can be highly toxic in humans,” the FDA cautioned. The agency went on to explain that although the medication is sometimes used in humans as a treatment for parasites or scabies, or in topical form to treat rosacea, the doses are much smaller than are given to livestock. Still, people have been going to feed stores and purchasing livestock doses of the drug, leading many stores to post warnings next to the ivermectin supply, cautioning it is not for use in humans.

 

As people take the drug, McElyea said patients have arrived at hospitals with negative reactions like nausea, vomiting, muscle aches, and cramping — or even loss of sight...