Coronavirus: General discussion (see opening post for rules)

[elsiegee40]

Hope they recover soon. I know you can find guidance just as easily as me, but if they don't have a temperature and are improving, they should be safe to be near you the sooner out of 10 days from when they showed symptoms or tested positive.

 

Fingers crossed for a family Christmas [emoji1696]

 

I know... and I know he’s a hulking great 6’6” adult now ... but I’m his Mum and concern is in the job description [emoji23]

[elsiegee40]

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[stevejp]

[ATTACH]60162[/ATTACH]

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Just in time for carol singing next week!

[mikeprice]

 

Yup - that would have sorted it

[6Foot2]

Link: Germany to close shops and schools in Covid Christmas lockdown [The Guardian]

 

Germany will close most shops from Wednesday until 10 January as it tightens coronavirus restrictions and tries to rein in the spread of the disease, the country’s chancellor, Angela Merkel, has said.

 

Schools will also be shut during the period, and employers will be asked to close operations or have employees work from home. The sale of fireworks will be banned ahead of New Year’s Eve.

 

“There is an urgent need to take action,” Merkel said after a meeting with leaders of the country’s 16 federal states.

 

Under the agreement, only essential shops such as supermarkets and pharmacies, as well as banks, are to remain open.

 

Germany has been in partial lockdown for six weeks, with bars and restaurants closed, while stores and schools have remained open. Some regions have already imposed tougher measures as infections grew.

 

New daily infections and deaths have reached record levels in recent days, and politicians have been sounding the alarm.

 

On Sunday, the number of confirmed coronavirus cases in Germany increased by 20,200 to 1,320,716, according to data from the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) for infectious diseases. The reported death toll rose by 321 to 21,787.

[6Foot2]

Link: Greenwich schools to close after 'exponential growth' of Covid in London borough [The Guardian]

 

Schools in Greenwich, south-east London, have been asked to close after “exponential growth” of coronavirus demanded “immediate action”, the council said, amid reports that the capital is likely to enter tier 3 soon.

 

Danny Thorpe, the council leader, said: “I’m writing this open letter to let you know the situation in Greenwich in relation to Covid-19 is now escalating extremely quickly and I have today been briefed by colleagues from Public Health England that the pandemic in Greenwich is now showing signs that we are in a period of exponential growth that demands immediate action.”

 

Writing to headteachers, Thorpe described the issue as “honestly one of the most difficult questions I have wrestled with during all my time as leader”. He underlined that Greenwich now had the highest rate of infection at any time since March. Schools have been told to move to online learning for the rest of the term from Monday evening, with the exception of key worker children and those with specific needs.

 

The announcement comes despite the government threatening to use legal action under the Coronavirus Act against headteachers in England who want to allow their pupils to learn remotely in the run-up to Christmas. Schools that were planning to move to remote teaching during the last week of term, to ensure their pupils would not have to self-isolate on Christmas Day, are being ordered to remain open until Friday.

 

One headteacher in Hertfordshire was sent an official letter last week from the schools minister, Nick Gibb, telling him the government was prepared to deploy its new powers under the act to ensure his secondary school remained open for all pupils until Friday...

[Duranis]

Link: Greenwich schools to close after 'exponential growth' of Covid in London borough [The Guardian]

Was having this conversation with someone the other day. All the local secondaries where I live have closed except my sons. A relative was complaining that the school was willfully putting them at risk and why couldn't they close if all the others had. The only difference is that my sons school has been a lot more careful at isolating them, so has only had to close 2 year groups. The other schools where not as careful and have had more cases so they had no option but to shut. I'm sure my sons school would love to shut as well but is not allowed to do so.

 

In other news I'm not sending my son into school for this last week. Cases around here are going up insanely fast and I just don't see the point in putting us all at risk for the last 4 days. At this rate I'm seriously considering not sending him back in January either, especially after everyone having mixed over Christmas.

[mikeprice]

We are part of the CIty Region mass testing as from today

 

so naturally the local newspapers are full of info on what to do, how it works etc etc

 

 

or possibly not

 

still not decided what to do - wife's son said "why would you get tested??" - and he works in the operating theatres at a local hospital - gets tested frequently for obvious reasons

 

he may have a point - dunno

 

I may go and get 'done' and see how it works before my wife decides - as she is more clinically vulnerable than me

 

neither of us have been out much or around people for the whole year so the risk is minimal I would think

 

opinions????

[StevieM]

I don't see the point in you getting tested, @mikeprice, unless you are showing symptoms, to be honest. There was a good article in Private Eye about how the rapid testing isn't accurate enough to provide a true picture of infection - giving too many false positives and, more importantly, missing too many real positives - and wasn't intended for the use to which the government has put it. Edited December 14, 2020 by StevieM

[elsiegee40]

I don't see the point in you getting tested unless you are showing symptoms, to be honest. There was a good article in Private Eye about how the rapid testing isn't accurate enough to provide a true picture of infection - giving too many false positives and, more importantly, missing too many real positives - and wasn't intended for the use to which the government has put it.

 

My son has covid. His girlfriend has covid. They’ve both had a rough few days but are improving.

 

Their flatmate, a teacher, was isolating because colleagues had covid.

 

She got tested with my son and his girlfriend. It seems she may have infected them. She has no symptoms.

[StevieM]

My son has covid. His girlfriend has covid. They’ve both had a rough few days but are improving.

 

Their flatmate, a teacher, was isolating because colleagues had covid.

 

She got tested with my son and his girlfriend. It seems she may have infected them. She has no symptoms.

I'm sorry to hear that, @elsiegee40. I've edited my post to emphasise that it is directed at @mikeprice and that I am not suggesting that anybody without symptoms shouldn't get tested (Is that right? Too many double negatives?)

 

The article to which I referred pointed out that hundreds (if not thousands) of people in Liverpool took the test as part of the 'moonshot' programme and received a negative result, even though they actually did have the virus. They took the result as gospel and then went on to spread the virus as they had been told that they weren't infected.

[jmak]

True answer for everyone: no one really knows.

 

For someone who has quite a lot of exposure, it's probably worth it. My OH works in front line health care role working with patients confirmed as Covid positive every day and has rapid tests to use at home twice per week, but the point of that is to try and stop asymptomatic staff spreading it at work, rather than to protect us. (Looking forward to vaccination of healthcare workers though.)

 

It does seem to pick up a decent number of asymptomatic people, so is a useful tool for removing people who don't know they're infectious from circulation. It therefore probably makes sense from a public health point of view.

 

Accuracy is very variable depending on how well it's done - although if you're highly infectious (shedding lots of virus) it's pretty good (over 95%).

 

In your situation I'd either give it a miss or go at a time I was pretty sure it was quiet. That's my instinct only, but it's based on the fact you have been sensible and reduced your contacts as much as possible and a guess that a fair number of people who pitch up for a test think they've been exposed, so you might be exposing yourself to additional risk while you queue up...

[mikeprice]

 

In your situation I'd either give it a miss or go at a time I was pretty sure it was quiet. That's my instinct only, but it's based on the fact you have been sensible and reduced your contacts as much as possible and a guess that a fair number of people who pitch up for a test think they've been exposed, so you might be exposing yourself to additional risk while you queue up...

 

A very good point - I may do a fly by (OK ebike by) the test centre and see how it it happening - if there is a big queue then this would mean being close - as in 2m apart and wearing a mask - and outdoors - for an extended period

and - as you said - possibly with people who are a higher risk than normal

 

if it is quiet then I may go over - but only after discussion with Mrs mikeprice and making sure she is in agreement - she is more worried about things than I am in some ways and if I test positive then we need to have a plan

 

and she needs to have food in to cook - and I have to show her where the kitchen is (last bit is a joke - still funny after all these years - maybe??)

 

 

 

thanks for the replies

[elsiegee40]

Father in law aged 83 has received an appointment on Thursday for vaccination.

 

Mother in law, who is 78 and suffers from anxiety and depression, has gone into complete meltdown because they wouldn’t give her an appointment too.

 

NB I don’t think she should be given one ahead of her callup. I just feel sad for FiL having to cope with her.

[Boredguy]

and I have to show her where the kitchen is (last bit is a joke - still funny after all these years - maybe??)

What the phone isn't the kitchen?

[StevieM]

Accuracy is very variable depending on how well it's done - although if you're highly infectious (shedding lots of virus) it's pretty good (over 95%).

 

Specifically referring to the Innova lateral flow, as used in the Liverpool mass-testing 'moonshot', accuracy falls to 58% when used by members of the public. As reported in the BMJ:

 

“The poor detection rate of the test makes it entirely unsuitable for the government’s claim that it will allow safe ‘test and release’ of people from lockdown and students from university, as the test may miss up to half of covid-19 cases, a negative test result indicates a reduced risk of infection but does not exclude covid-19.

In your situation I'd either give it a miss or go at a time I was pretty sure it was quiet. That's my instinct only, but it's based on the fact you have been sensible and reduced your contacts as much as possible and a guess that a fair number of people who pitch up for a test think they've been exposed, so you might be exposing yourself to additional risk while you queue up...

 

That was the main point I was (very badly) trying to make.

[mavhc]

Who's doing the testing at the mass testing centers? Self serve or not?

 

Reasons would be a) to catch people who didn't know they were infectious, and b) to provide general data about the state of the population as a whole, although as it's still self selecting that won't be as good as it could be.

 

11000 deaths per day now.

 

In uk 64000 dead, that's approaching the number of civilians killed in WW2 in uk, 9 times that for WW1. Thrice as many as uk military died in Second Boer War.

[Ditto]

58% is not so far from flipping a coin, yet it will still an impact on reducing transmission - as will the coin flip scenario! I'm not sure death comparisons with wars is of much benefit, they are so different, as is the profile of those at risk. Besides, we can be optimistic about the impact developed and developing vaccines will have on reducing those deaths. I'm not expecting any vaccines being developed to protect against being blown to smithereens.

[StevieM]

58% is not so far from flipping a coin, yet it will still an impact on reducing transmission - as will the coin flip scenario!

 

It will also have an impact on increasing transmission.

 

Here are a couple of quotes from MD’s article in Private Eye, which I mentioned earlier:

An analysis by PHE Porton Down and Oxford University of the Innova test we’re using found an alarmingly high false negative rate (i.e. testing negative when you are in fact positive). And accuracy also depends on who does the test. When scientists do the test, it has a 20.8 percent false negative rate. When trained healthcare workers do it, it’s 27 percent. When people self-test, it’s 42.5 percent.

 

And not all positives mean positive either. As Birmingham biostatistics professor John Deeks puts it: “In a population of 100,000 where 400 are infected, the test would show 630 infections, but with just 230 of those actually positive.” So it misses 170 true positives and labels 400 people as positive when they’re not, forcing them and their contacts to wrongly self-isolate.

 

TL;DR - Do what you can to keep yourself and everyone else safe. Don’t stop following COVID guidance just because your test says you’re negative, because you may not be.

[jthompson]

DfE - Secondary schools and colleges to get weekly coronavirus testing

 

From a DfE email:

From January, starting with secondary schools and including all special schools and alternative provision, the education workforce will be eligible for weekly on the spot tests. This will help identify asymptomatic cases – which make up a third of all cases – limiting the spread of the virus. This will be backed up by daily testing for staff who have been in close contact with a positive case therefore eliminating the need for self-isolation and allowing them to continue to come into school or college.

 

Students will be eligible for daily testing if they have been in close contact with a positive case.

Edited December 15, 2020 by jthompson

[pooley]

Who administers the testing, what if a pupil says no to testing ?All well and good saying that's what will be happening, but where's the detail?

[witch]

They are getting on with things fast though - 91 year old father-in-law has appt for vaccination next week. Round here several friends aged parents have had the call. In one case an 82 year old got called before an 86 year old because he has underlying issues - which is entirely correct. I have heard of appointments being offered in 4 or 5 completely separate locations many miles apart so it isnt just one council being on the ball

[elsiegee40]

Mum in Buxton aged 83 hasn’t received the call up yet and neither has my friend’s Mum aged 95 in Halifax. Hopefully not too long

[sonofsanta]

DfE - Secondary schools and colleges to get weekly coronavirus testing

 

From a DfE email:

 

 

Thanks for that--because the BBC News article used the word "teachers" instead, apparently believing that to be synonymous with "school staff", so I was coming here to have a whinge and ask if anyone knew if we were eligible. Pleased to hear we have not in fact been forgotten for once!

[Ditto]

They are getting on with things fast though - 91 year old father-in-law has appt for vaccination next week. Round here several friends aged parents have had the call. In one case an 82 year old got called before an 86 year old because he has underlying issues - which is entirely correct. I have heard of appointments being offered in 4 or 5 completely separate locations many miles apart so it isn't just one council being on the ball

 

Too right! I have just heard my mum, who was 80 this year, is going in tomorrow for her first jab. I believe I'm number 33,457,681 in the queue!