The Swine Flu Thread

[ICT_GUY]

You say those statistics as if they're small, but apply that to real people and that is 46.9million people dead if the same percentages were used today...

 

Which will take almost a third of a year to make up in new births!

[TwoZeroAlpha]

Based on a population of the UK from wiki 61,612,300 (2009 estimate)

 

28percent infected (from earlier spanish flu stats)

2.5% of infected died

 

Total losses in similar scenario are 462092

 

That's four hundred and sixty two thousand and ninty two

 

That's a little over half the population of Leeds

 

2.5% of 28% sounds like nothing until you stick it into real people numbers.

[ascott2]

That small percentage doesn't seem so insignificant if you or your family are one of them!

[Theblacksheep]

apply that to real people and that is 46.9million people dead

 

150k in the US, 700k in the US, compared to 20 million in India shows its very dependant on the quality of life. Considering this was also at the same time as a world war and at a time of great poverty, even for the western nations has serious effect on the ability to contain and treat the disease.

 

Keep in mind the natural death rate the last 100 years in the UK has dropped from 25k per Million to around 8k and the majority of deaths coming before they are 45 to over 65.

 

The current 'natual' death rate of InFLUenza in the US is around 60k per year.

Cancer and heart disease kills more than 600k each in the US now.

 

Theorising how many deaths that may happen now is all well and good, but theres a big difference between 1918 and 2009.

 

Finally there is still no proof the current swine influenza has the ability to transverse humans yet.

Edited April 29, 2009 by Theblacksheep

[tech_guy]

Based on a population of the UK from wiki 61,612,300 (2009 estimate)

 

28percent infected (from earlier spanish flu stats)

2.5% of infected died

 

Total losses in similar scenario are 462092

 

That's four hundred and sixty two thousand and ninty two

 

That's a little over half the population of Leeds

 

2.5% of 28% sounds like nothing until you stick it into real people numbers.

 

But that's only half of Leeds - what about the other half?

[JJonas]

First US swine flu death; school closings possible - Examiner.com

 

Which raises the question if the government shuts the do schools due to a public health emergency do we still get paid?

Edited April 29, 2009 by JJonas

[ascott2]

There is still no proof the current swine influenza has the ability to transverse humans yet.

 

WHO has classed this as phase 4 of the pandemic level. Their site clearly explains what that means.

 

Phase 4 is characterized by verified human-to-human transmission of an animal or human-animal influenza reassortant virus able to cause “community-level outbreaks.” The ability to cause sustained disease outbreaks in a community marks a significant upwards shift in the risk for a pandemic.

[Jamo]

As I said above, the 1918 pandemic, although pretty bad, wasn't all that when the facts are looked at. Globally 2.5% of people infected died, so 97.5 people survived. & only 28% of people were infected at all. This was in 1918! I think we should be a lot better prepared and sorted now.

 

With the ability to travel faster these days the number of people you come into contact with in a day is vastly increased compared to an equivalent person in 1918 meaning the potential audience for transmission is far greater. Considering the quantity of people who have had the virus I would say that its pretty likely that it is transmitting between humans, unless all these people had contact with the one potential farm its supposed to have come from.

[Jamo]

First US swine flu death; school closings possible - Examiner.com

 

We raises the question if the government shuts the do schools due to a public health emergency do we still get paid?

 

hope so cus my landlord doesn't shut

[Theblacksheep]

WHO has classed this as phase 4 of the pandemic level. Their site clearly explains what that means.

 

Phase 4 is characterized by verified human-to-human transmission of an animal OR human-animal influenza reassortant virus able to cause “community-level outbreaks.”

 

 

You failed to read their clearly explained site or mark in bold the big 'OR' in your quote.

 

Its infectedpig->human. There is still no proof it can transverse humans yet.

Edited April 29, 2009 by Theblacksheep

[lew_bob]

If i get it first can I get an edu-geek mug?

[localzuk]

You failed to read their clearly explained site or mark in bold the big 'OR' in your quote.

 

Its infectedpig->human. There is still no proof it can transverse humans yet.

 

No he didn't... From the WHO

 

Phase 4 is characterized by verified human-to-human transmission of an animal or human-animal influenza reassortant virus able to cause “community-level outbreaks.” The ability to cause sustained disease outbreaks in a community marks a significant upwards shift in the risk for a pandemic. Any country that suspects or has verified such an event should urgently consult with WHO so that the situation can be jointly assessed and a decision made by the affected country if implementation of a rapid pandemic containment operation is warranted. Phase 4 indicates a significant increase in risk of a pandemic but does not necessarily mean that a pandemic is a forgone conclusion.

 

This means there has to be verified human-to-human transmission to be at this level... of either an animal or an human-animal influenza reassortant virus.

[Andrew_C]

As I said above, the 1918 pandemic, although pretty bad, wasn't all that when the facts are looked at.

420000 dead in Britain alone. Suppose that's not too bad; except that it is the young (20-50) that seem to get it worst due to the immune systems reaction...

 

[Jamo]

420000 dead in Britain alone. Suppose that's not too bad; except that it is the young (20-50) that seem to get it worst due to the immune systems reaction...

 

 

I think that the mortallity rate is still higher in the older and younger generations. The transmission rate will be higher within that group because generally the 20-50s are in contact with a lot more people at work etc.

[TwoZeroAlpha]

But that's only half of Leeds - what about the other half?

 

Funny that, it's exactly what my HOD said when I told her.

 

Dunno, "Outbreak" style fuel-air bomb? That solve the problem for you?

 

(my apologies to all those living in or associated with Leeds)

[Andrew_C]

I think that the mortallity rate is still higher in the older and younger generations. The transmission rate will be higher within that group because generally the 20-50s are in contact with a lot more people at work etc.

Not as I read it. Based on 1918, the very young still had childhood antibodies, and the old had antibodies from a previous outbreak of a similar strain, and were thus protected. The young & healthy were badly hit.

[Jamo]

Not as I read it. Based on 1918, the very young still had childhood antibodies, and the old had antibodies from a previous outbreak of a similar strain, and were thus protected. The young & healthy were badly hit.

 

This was based on the spanish flu epidemic which was rare for an influenza type virus. Thats not to say this one wouldn't be the same tho :s

[JJonas]

BBC - Horizon - Pandemic

 

Horizon programme about pandemics

[ICT_GUY]

One of the teachers is off sick at the moment at my Wifes school after being in contact with someone who has recently been to Mexico on holiday. *cough*panic*cough*

[JJonas]

NHS swine flu alert

[JJonas]

HPA - Swine Influenza

[ICT_GUY]

Funny that, it's exactly what my HOD said when I told her.

 

Dunno, "Outbreak" style fuel-air bomb? That solve the problem for you?

 

(my apologies to all those living in or associated with Leeds)

 

If L4d taught me anything, you will need an auto shotgun, a few improvised explosives and always aim for the head just to be sure.

[jamesb]

Anyone else seen Doomsday?

[CHR1S]

The infected woman from Birmingham is actually from Redditch which is just as close to me.... time to dig out the hazmat suit

[sidewinder]

Anyone else seen Doomsday?

 

Yeah

Awful film!