The Swine Flu Thread

[tech_guy]

I think we're all getting a little bit blasé about this swine flu situation.

 

• The first influenza pandemic was recorded in 1580 and since then influenza pandemics occurred every 10 to 30 years.
   
  
• Influenza pandemics in 1729-1730, 1732-1733, 1781-1782, 1830, 1833-1834, 1847-1848.
   
  
• The "Asiatic Flu", 1889–1890. Was first reported in May of 1889 in Bukhara, Uzbekistan. By October, it had reached Tomsk and the Caucasus. It rapidly spread west and hit North America in December 1889, South America in February–April 1890, India in February-March 1890, and Australia in March–April 1890. It was purportedly caused by the H2N8 type of flu virus, and had a very high attack and mortality rate. About 1 million people died in this pandemic.
   
  
• The "Spanish flu", 1918–1919. First identified early in March 1918 in US troops training at Camp Funston, Kansas. By October 1918, it had spread to become a world-wide pandemic on all continents, and eventually infected 2.5 to 5% of the human population, with 20% or more of the world population suffering from the disease to some extent. Unusually deadly and virulent, it ended nearly as quickly as it began, vanishing completely within 18 months. In six months, some 50 million were dead; some estimates put the total of those killed worldwide at over twice that number. An estimated 17 million died in India, 675,000 in the United States and 200,000 in the UK. The virus was recently reconstructed by scientists at the CDC studying remains preserved by the Alaskan permafrost. They identified it as a type of H1N1 virus.
   
  
• The "Asian Flu", 1957–58. An H2N2 caused about 70,000 deaths in the United States. First identified in China in late February 1957, the Asian flu spread to the United States by June 1957. It caused about 2 million deaths globally.
   
  
• The "Hong Kong Flu", 1968–69. An H3N2 caused about 34,000 deaths in the United States. This virus was first detected in Hong Kong in early 1968, and spread to the United States later that year. This pandemic of 1968 and 1969 killed an estimated one million people worldwide. Influenza A (H3N2) viruses still circulate today.
  

 

Sod it, just crashed my car playing GTAIV on my xbox...!

[CHR1S]

I might regret saying this but, I think its all rubbish! Media sensationalised rubbish!

 

Ill have that written on my grave stone if im wrong lol

[CHR1S]

Here lies CHR1S

Died aged 120.

 

The good die young.

 

So what does that make me? The Bad? Or the Ugly? lol!

[JJonas]

WHO Revises Pandemic Alert Scale: Swine Flu Now Qualifies for Phase 5 by Mike Adams the Health Ranger

 

WHO haven't actually upgraded the alert yet just this website says it now qualifies for an upgrade

[ICT_GUY]

EVERYBODY PANIC!

[jamesb]

EVERYBODY PANIC!

 

Would, but I'm still exhausted from panicking about the radiation leaks up in Scotland. Gimme a few months.

[jamesb]

Once upon a time there was a little boy called Media, and he was given the job of telling all the people in his village what was happening each day.

 

One day he was bored, and no one was giving him shiny sixpences for telling them what was happening, so he ran into the village yelling "A beast is coming, a beast is coming!"

 

Well the villagers went around panicking and getting their weapons out and barring their doors, but the beast never turned up. Still, they were all grateful to the little boy for telling them and so they gave him lots of shiny sixpences and he went out and bought sweets, and ate them.

 

A few days later the boy was bored again, and his sixpences were all gone, so he say down and thought and then ran into the village again yelling "Earthquake! Earthquake!"

 

So the villagers did the same as before, making sure everything was safe and secure and waiting outside, and many of them nodded wisely at one another and said that they'd felt a little tremor. And they gave the boy some shiny sixpences for telling them, and he went out and bought sweets, and ate them.

 

This happened many more times, and the villagers eventually got fed up of the panic the boy kept on causing, and started to ignore him. Then one day the boy came running into the village, this time with a plan to make all the people listen to him and give him sixpences to buy sweets again. He yelled at the top of his voice "Fire! Fire!"

 

And the villagers ignore him.

 

And they all burned to a crisp.

[somabc]

I don't know what you are all worried about, its just another day at the office here

 

http://images.inmagine.com/img/brandxpictures/x258/bxp68288.jpg

[JJonas]

Three more swine flu cases confirmed

 

LONDON (AFP) – Three more cases of swine flu have been confirmed in Britain, adding to two already known about at the weekend, Prime Minister Gordon Brown said Wednesday.

 

The new cases were a 12-year-old girl in Torbay, and two adults in Birmingham and London, he told MPs, adding that authorities aimed to increase stocks of anti-virals from 35 million to 50 million.

 

Anybody on here from Torbay?

[TechMonkey]

The best info I have seen so far has come from BoingBoing (well worth reading anyway as it is fab). Info like there is always a flu outbreak going on somewhere. Although you may really feel you want to die, chances are you won't. This piece about the 1918 pandemic:

 

It's estimated that about 28 per cent of Canadians and Americans contracted the Spanish flu. Worldwide, an estimated 2.5 per cent of the sick died of complications, which made the pandemic one of the most lethal flu outbreaks in recorded history. Certainly it was one that imprinted itself upon human consciousness for several generations.

 

But there's another way to look at those statistics. You might observe, for example, that they mean that even during the worst ravages of the 1918 flu, 97.5 per cent of those infected survived and recovered. Or that 72 per cent of the population -- even in the absence of the sophisticated public health planning and infrastructure that Canada and the U.S. have since built -- was not infected during the pandemic.

 

So, even if we had a repeat of the 1918 flu, the chances were seven out of 10 that you wouldn't catch it and if you did, the odds were better than nine out of 10 that you'd survive.

 

That was during the worst pandemic of the modern era and one which occurred in the days before the instantaneous communications of radio, television and the Web enabled quick public health responses.

 

All puts it perspective.

[ICT_GUY]

Would, but I'm still exhausted from panicking about the radiation leaks up in Scotland. Gimme a few months.

 

What this one - National news outlets, citing "secret" Ministry of Defence (MoD) documents, are reporting that "serious safety breaches" and "leaks of liquid radioactive waste" have occurred at the Faslane nuclear submarine base. It's sort of true, but one would release many times more radioactive material into the Clyde by dropping a luminous watch into it.

 

Homer Simpson 'nuclear waste spill' panic at nuke sub base! • The Register

[sidewinder]

^ yes you really have to put it into perspective. Especially now with so much more information, better science, better communication, better drugs, we are in the best position we can be in, and we're lucky enough to live in one of the best prepared areas.

Its the undeveloped countries that could really, really suffer.

 

I was quite scared when news first came out about this, but I have calmed down a fair bit since.

There is a lot of scaremongering but it was valid, especially at the beginning, because unlike bird flu it is actually being transmitted human to human - thats what made it scary to me - bird flu was all about what 'could' happen, this was *actually* happening.

 

Since the death rate seems to have slowed, and in mexico the confirmed deaths from this has actually been revised downwards, it seems to be a lot less serious than first thought. Add to that everyone that has brought it back with them from Mexico has only had mild symptons and have recivered, plus so far (touch wood) it doesnt seem to have spread exponentially, I'm fairly calm about it.

 

Have also read that even if a full scale pandemic occurs, there is a good chance it would not occur till the autumn, giving time for vaccines to be worked on.

 

As others have said, the most worrying thing is our bungling government saying there is nothing to worry about

But when I see well informed healthcare professionals and doctors saying positive things it makes me feel a bit more confident. Helps to read as many sources as you can I think, so you can get a balanced picture - otherwise you could end up with either an overly blasé attitude or a PANIC PANIC PANIC one - neither of which are very sensible

[ICT_GUY]

CALIFORNIA PANIC 11 PEOPLE ARE ILL, GOVERNATOR DECLARES STATE OF EMERGENCY!

 

AFP: California declares swine flu emergency

[lbradley]

lol arnie, hes too hard to get swine flu

[Theblacksheep]

Merck and GSK seen rubbing their hands at potential 'emergency'.

[ascott2]

Alot of people don't take this seriously enough in my opinion. It is a well know fact the flu viruses mix and is why we get new strains, at the moment this H1 strain doesn't seem to be too deadly(in comparison to previous pandemics ie 1918) but it does seem to transmit reasonably quickly, 10 countries confirmed already.

 

If this virus were to reach somewhere like south east Asia and mix with their known strains of H5 flu, which is deadly, there could be a real issue on our hands!

 

That is obviously worst case scenario!

[elsiegee40]

Paignton Community College in Devon has shut after a 12 year old pupil who had been on holiday to Mexico was confirmed as having Swine Flu:

 

BBC NEWS | UK | Three new swine flu cases in UK

[JJonas]

any members from Paignton Community College?

[jamesb]

Alot of people don't take this seriously enough in my opinion. It is a well know fact the flu viruses mix and is why we get new strains, at the moment this H1 strain doesn't seem to be too deadly(in comparison to previous pandemics ie 1918) but it does seem to transmit reasonably quickly, 10 countries confirmed already.

 

If this virus were to reach somewhere like south east Asia and mix with their known strains of H5 flu, which is deadly, there could be a real issue on our hands!

 

That is obviously worst case scenario!

 

I remember reading somewhere (or misreading, who knows) that a virus can nowadays travel around the world within about three days.

[TechMonkey]

(in comparison to previous pandemics ie 1918)

 

As I said above, the 1918 pandemic, although pretty bad, wasn't all that when the facts are looked at. Globally 2.5% of people infected died, so 97.5 people survived. & only 28% of people were infected at all. This was in 1918! I think we should be a lot better prepared and sorted now.

[pete]

*Activates Zombie Apocalypse disaster recovery plan*

[ascott2]

I remember reading somewhere (or misreading, who knows) that a virus can nowadays travel around the world within about three days.

 

Those with a pandemic potential can, like swine flu!

[tech_guy]

I remember reading somewhere (or misreading, who knows) that a virus can nowadays travel around the world within about three days.

 

That's on a Ryanair flight, right?

[pscott]

Not ryanair - it would be charged extra surely?

[localzuk]

You say those statistics as if they're small, but apply that to real people and that is 46.9million people dead if the same percentages were used today...