Coronavirus: General discussion (see opening post for rules)

[mavhc]

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/372/6538/eabg3055

[Ditto]

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/372/6538/eabg3055

 

What do take away from this article?

The statistical modelling is interesting and the graphic visualisations aid understanding. I suspect the researchers used R programming language with plug-ins - they look familiar in style to something I did a few years ago. At it's simplest, the article seems to confirm the so-called UK variant is behind the current surge in Europe, in part as it's makes people much more infectious and it has become a dominant strain and will do elsewhere - at least until another variant comes along to compete. Strategies to defend against the virus remain as before and it even talks about limited closure in education.

 

Finally, it talks vaccines and how important they are as a way forward. I talks about accelerated vaccine programmes - I'm not sure we can go a lot faster in the UK until supplies of currently approved vaccines increase or new ones are approved and produced at scale. For the much of the rest of the globe, vaccine roll-out has a huge way to go and given the shenanigans seen within the continent of Europe (see https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/08/germany-seeks-russia-talks-over-possible-supply-of-sputnik-v-covid-vaccine), I'm not confident the global rollout will be as quick as it could be.

[localzuk]

What do take away from this article?

The main take away for me is that the current government plan of mitigation cannot work. This is just one of the many new variants appearing, with some not effectively being dealt with by existing vaccines. So, mitigating the effects of the pandemic can never work - if the virus is allowed to keep spreading, it increases the chances of a new variant appearing which will undo the work the vaccination has done.

[mikeprice]

This just reinforces the fact that once we have got our own country sorted out - we really need to help get the rest of the world sorted out as well so that the reservoirs of virus in poorer - or worse run (yes - I know!) - countries get stamped down.

[mikeprice]

Oh - and Mrs mikeprice had her 2nd AV jab yesterday

 

it was brought forward a week

 

apparently whether you get the AV or the Phyzer version is simply based on which week you book your first jab for. I was trying to work out what formula/crtieria they were using - but it was more basic than that!

Then obviously the second jab has to be booked for a week that uses the same one - hence her jab coming forward a week.

[mavhc]

What do take away from this article?

The statistical modelling is interesting and the graphic visualisations aid understanding. I suspect the researchers used R programming language with plug-ins - they look familiar in style to something I did a few years ago. At it's simplest, the article seems to confirm the so-called UK variant is behind the current surge in Europe, in part as it's makes people much more infectious and it has become a dominant strain and will do elsewhere - at least until another variant comes along to compete. Strategies to defend against the virus remain as before and it even talks about limited closure in education.

 

Finally, it talks vaccines and how important they are as a way forward. I talks about accelerated vaccine programmes - I'm not sure we can go a lot faster in the UK until supplies of currently approved vaccines increase or new ones are approved and produced at scale. For the much of the rest of the globe, vaccine roll-out has a huge way to go and given the shenanigans seen within the continent of Europe (see https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/08/germany-seeks-russia-talks-over-possible-supply-of-sputnik-v-covid-vaccine), I'm not confident the global rollout will be as quick as it could be.

 

That people keep moving about, spreading the virus, stop doing that. Also that opening schools predicts 20k deaths

[jmak]

Oh - and Mrs mikeprice had her 2nd AV jab yesterday

 

it was brought forward a week

 

apparently whether you get the AV or the Phyzer version is simply based on which week you book your first jab for. I was trying to work out what formula/crtieria they were using - but it was more basic than that!

Then obviously the second jab has to be booked for a week that uses the same one - hence her jab coming forward a week.

Guess I'm 50:50 on whether I get my 2nd appointment moved then... I was offered 5 dates, 2 in one week and 3 in the following week and from all of the sites offered (about 8 ranging from 15 minutes to an hour's drive), none of them was the site where I had my first one [emoji2369]

5 weeks to go though, so who knows what'll happen by then. Obviously I appreciate that it's an incredibly complicated bit of scheduling and the bottom line is that everyone I know has been offered the vaccine in the timescales given including the second shots, which must be a lot more complicated than the first ones.

[Ditto]

The main take away for me is that the current government plan of mitigation cannot work. This is just one of the many new variants appearing, with some not effectively being dealt with by existing vaccines. So, mitigating the effects of the pandemic can never work - if the virus is allowed to keep spreading, it increases the chances of a new variant appearing which will undo the work the vaccination has done.

My perception is the current plan buys time to roll out vaccination and prevents the NHS collapsing, but it comes at economic and other health cost. How things will look once everyone has had a vaccine offered, only time will reveal, but the global picture has to be considered. New variants remains a great unknown. History shows viruses often become less lethal to survive, but we've never been a more populated and integrated world, so that path is perhaps less likely in our lifetime. Science seems to be confident of developing a defence against new strains quickly, which up to a point, is what happens with common flu. No easy answers here, but it shows the value of science and why it should always be invested in.

[Ditto]

That people keep moving about, spreading the virus, stop doing that.

But moving about is such a fundamental part of being human, to just say stop is unrealistic. But as humans, we don't give up, we look for alternative solutions.

Edited April 10, 2021 by Ditto

[Ditto]

I've been offered jab 2 at the end of next week - Pfizer. That'll be 11 weeks an 1 day. 1 week later, in theory, I'm as protected as I can be. Yet, in spite of this, I can't say I'll feel elated. There's still much further to go, both for family, friends and globally, before we can return to something nearer normality.

[LeMarchand]

But moving about is such a fundamental part of being human

 

I'd disagree. It's only since the middle of the last century that "normal" people have travelled for holidays. Before then, pretty much:

 

[mavhc]

But moving about is such a fundamental part of being human, to just say stop is unrealistic. But as humans, we don't give up, we look for alternative solutions.

 

People can't even stop for a few months when they know that moving about will kill people?

[Ditto]

I'd disagree. It's only since the middle of the last century that "normal" people have travelled for holidays. Before then, pretty much:

I have to admit I wasn't thinking holidays, more from a work and domestic point of view. For sure travel options over the last couple of centuries have expanded exponentially and it's a major reason the virus has spread so fast and so far and that also contributes to the number of variants.

[Ditto]

People can't even stop for a few months when they know that moving about will kill people?

If only it were as simple as people stopping moving for a few months. But it isn't, it's already been more than that and mitigations globally are going to be in place off and on. We need to remember that the mitigations (including lockdowns) have a very negative impact on some people's health and wellbeing. There's is not going to a singular strategy to get all people back to a pre-pandemic world, it's much more complicated than that. Global vaccinations is probably the strongest strategy at the moment, but as evident in recent weeks, even that has problems for some and they most likely they will need to be developed against variants. For those that can stop or reduce their movement, they should as it helps and I'm one of those people, but I have the good fortune to work remotely effectively and have space to exercise alone outside - not all people are in such a position.

[mikeprice]

Mrs mikeprice had her second jab on Thursday - she now has a sore arm again and a red and slightly raised patch on her arm where the needle went in

 

just like before

 

She says it is just like the first time - but as she is moaning less I am assuming it is a bit better!!

[mikeprice]

GOOD NEWS

 

The pandemic is over - we can all go back to normal!!!

 

 

this is based on the chippy this evening - 3 customers and I was the only one with a mask

 

CLEARLY I was getting it wrong

 

 

 

I have said it before - but when we came down from the trees we should have been more selective about who came down with us!

[caffrey]

You would think so, took twice as long to get to work today - has someone switched coronavirus off ?

[mikes]

You would think so, took twice as long to get to work today - has someone switched coronavirus off ?

 

Must admit I noticed very heavy traffic too! Basically back to normal! I'm looking for Work from Home jobs now as the lockdown suited me very well. Being around people all the time has always exhausted me and this lockdown has actually shown me how relaxing life could potentially be for me!

[Davit2005]

Must admit I noticed very heavy traffic too! Basically back to normal! I'm looking for Work from Home jobs now as the lockdown suited me very well. Being around people all the time has always exhausted me and this lockdown has actually shown me how relaxing life could potentially be for me!

 

Certainly more traffic on the M1 going in from Junction 6 around 7am. I only noticed as my run route took me over a bridge crossing it.

 

I'm going in to work at least once a week now, getting bored on my local runs but they are quiet with just the odd dog walker with controlled dogs compared to my routes in the park near where I work that sometimes has dogs running around me ankles

Edited April 12, 2021 by Davit2005

[mavhc]

If only it were as simple as people stopping moving for a few months. But it isn't, it's already been more than that and mitigations globally are going to be in place off and on. We need to remember that the mitigations (including lockdowns) have a very negative impact on some people's health and wellbeing.

 

I hear that 3 million people have had an extremely negative impact on their health, by dying. Plus another 10 million at least with long lasting effects of being infected.

 

Not many people need to be moving countries, or counties. How did a variant spread so far so fast? It started in 1 person and ended up all over the world, after we knew what was going on.

[jmak]

And this is why it'll all go pear shaped:

From The Guardian yesterday https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/11/happy-monday-booking-frenzy-for-first-day-of-lockdown-lite-england?

 

Kriti Sachdeva is more excited about the easing of national lockdown restrictions than she is about her birthday in November. “I want to celebrate,” she said. “I want to do everything, I just worry I won’t have time to fit it all in.”

 

She plans to go to the gym, eat brunch on the pavement at her favourite cafe, hit the shops, meet up with friends for a group outdoor yoga class and see work colleagues for drinks at an outdoor pub.

 

“We haven’t been able to do any of these things for such a long time,” said Sachdeva[/Quote]

 

I totally understand that it's been boring, but the aim is to allow a little bit of freedom and different people have different priorities, so you open more than one thing at a time, otherwise it would be unfair and cause complaints. The idea is not for all the people to do all the things [emoji2959]

[Rob_D]

Not many people need to be moving countries, or counties. How did a variant spread so far so fast? It started in 1 person and ended up all over the world, after we knew what was going on.

People might not need to move, but goods do. And I'd guess at least some of the international transmission is trade related.

[stevejp]

And this is why it'll all go pear shaped:

From The Guardian yesterday https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/11/happy-monday-booking-frenzy-for-first-day-of-lockdown-lite-england?

 

 

 

I totally understand that it's been boring, but the aim is to allow a little bit of freedom and different people have different priorities, so you open more than one thing at a time, otherwise it would be unfair and cause complaints. The idea is not for all the people to do all the things [emoji2959]

 

But you clearly don’t understand; she wants to do it, therefore she needs to do it, therefore she’s going to do it - because clearly she’s suffered more than anyone else, she has RIGHTS and is like too many people these days (notice I didn’t say young people - because it isn’t just the young) who find it impossible to see or acknowledge the responsibilities that come with those rights.

 

OK, rant over - I’m calm, really, I’m calm...

[6Foot2]

And this is why it'll all go pear shaped:

From The Guardian yesterday https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/11/happy-monday-booking-frenzy-for-first-day-of-lockdown-lite-england?

 

Kriti Sachdeva is more excited about the easing of national lockdown restrictions than she is about her birthday in November. “I want to celebrate,” she said. “I want to do everything, I just worry I won’t have time to fit it all in.”

 

She plans to go to the gym, eat brunch on the pavement at her favourite cafe, hit the shops, meet up with friends for a group outdoor yoga class and see work colleagues for drinks at an outdoor pub.

 

“We haven’t been able to do any of these things for such a long time,” said Sachdeva

 

I totally understand that it's been boring, but the aim is to allow a little bit of freedom and different people have different priorities, so you open more than one thing at a time, otherwise it would be unfair and cause complaints. The idea is not for all the people to do all the things [emoji2959]

 

With all this enthusiasm to catch up on "things that we haven't done in ages" 5Foot2, and I have just been to the local council household recycling centre.

 

I was able to drive on site, dispose of what we had gathered in the house and drive off site again before anyone else came in to do similar. I was expecting to be in the queue for half an hour or more like recent trips!

 

[LeMarchand]

With all this enthusiasm to catch up on "things that we haven't done in ages" 5Foot2, and I have just been to the local council household recycling centre.

 

I was able to drive on site, dispose of what we had gathered in the house and drive off site again before anyone else came in to do similar. I was expecting to be in the queue for half an hour or more like recent trips!

 

 

Lucky you! We still have to book for ours (a few days in advance). Fewer spaces, and all in use when we went - but there wasn't much of a queue on arrival.