Coronavirus: General discussion (see opening post for rules)

[pooley]

But hospitalisations are still very low by comparison, so if we don't make the changes now, when do we?

[mavhc]

Currently 50% of people in uk have full vaccine immunity (based on 2 weeks since 2nd dose), so not yet

[Ditto]

Currently 50% of people in uk have full vaccine immunity (based on 2 weeks since 2nd dose), so not yet

I don't think it is an easy one to answer when - out of interest, what date or data profile would you propose to allow opening up as is being proposed.

[Theblacksheep]

But hospitalisations are still very low by comparison, so if we don't make the changes now, when do we?

 

3 months ago, by restricting the border and not allowing in the Johnson variant.

 

Making changes is one thing, simply removing them all in one go while the virus rages is another. I'm so tired of politicians making everything binary and treating everything as a class war.

[mavhc]

I don't think it is an easy one to answer when - out of interest, what date or data profile would you propose to allow opening up as is being proposed.

 

When R>1, restrict, when R<1 derestrict.

 

Also strict quarantine of people arriving in the country from Jan 2020.

[jmak]

Tucked in the middle of this article there is a graphic which shows an analysis of the impact of releasing restrictions on different dates (largely based on the increasing numbers of vaccinated people).

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/07/what-are-the-risks-of-england-unlocking-in-the-covid-third-wave?

[tg12]

My concern is, by doing this, this is going to be irreversible, no matter what. If a new variant pops up that starts causing serious problems, then there's no way Johnson and co would be prepared to implement any serious restrictions to curb it as they know it'd be highly unpopular.

[sigma]

Would it?

 

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/health/survey-results/daily/2021/07/05/0275c/1

[Ditto]

When R>1, restrict, when R<1 derestrict.

 

Also strict quarantine of people arriving in the country from Jan 2020.

If we followed the first rule, we'd have lockdown for common flu every winter. I'd favour keeping a few more restrictions, like masks on public transport. The second change would require a time machine.

Personally, I feel waiting longer to get vaccine numbers up would be reassuring, but vaccine rates at about as low as ever right now so that could be some time away. Additionally, the scientific view of delaying further could lead to bigger issues this coming Autumn/Winter. As unpalatable as it is, we can not dismiss the impact of restrictions. Mental health (a sector I work in) has never seen greater demand. Self harming is now almost a given in parallel with other issues. Cancer diagnosis, especially early diagnosis, has taken a hard hit. There are many more health related impacts for continued restrictions. The way forward will not condense to binary logic.

[Ditto]

Would it?

 

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/health/survey-results/daily/2021/07/05/0275c/1

 

I've just been notified that there is a change.org petition going that asks for mask wearing in shops to remain requirement. I think the public are more willing to continue with some restrictions (or strong advisory guidance) than some may anticipate, especially with such rapidly increasing cases. I'm not in favour of unnecessary legal restrictions, especially when it's so subjectively enforced, but after all this time, I guess many of us have come to terms things like wearing masks.

[Duranis]

I don't think it is an easy one to answer when - out of interest, what date or data profile would you propose to allow opening up as is being proposed.

 

When enough of the population has been vaccinated for it to actually be effective (over 70%) which is not that far away. Your points on mental health are fair but what effect is many families being left to deal with long term illness and deaths going to have on mental health? Is it worth sacrificing the lives and health of the hundreds of thousands that will catch covid that would not have if we just kept at least some restrictions going for a few more months?

 

The fact that even face masks are no longer mandatory while the infection rate is doubling every 6 days shows that this has absolutely nothing to do with keeping people safe or following the science. Yes some people will continue to be cautious, I'm definitely one of them, however with experience of my local group of people the majority are of the opinion that "the Government says its ok not to be careful now so I wont".

[Garacesh]

however with experience of my local group of people the majority are of the opinion that "the Government says its ok not to be careful now so I wont".

I suspect a large portion of of those people are probably the same people who weren't being careful in the first place because they're too good/important/etc to subject themselves to a minor inconvenience, though from what I'm seeing online there's a lot of people who are just done with it now, they're burned out on anything COVID-related and just don't have the capacity to care any more.

 

Despite the fact that we've got the delta variant ravaging our school, and about a quarter of the school isolating, plenty of kids here are still walking around without facemasks on, staff testing was <40% a few weeks ago, and an average of 60% of kids (or P/G) are consenting to the weekly testing (it was <20% a few weeks ago, before the mandatory-but-not-really testing came in with the NHS staff in gazebos in the car park)

[mavhc]

If we followed the first rule, we'd have lockdown for common flu every winter. I'd favour keeping a few more restrictions, like masks on public transport. The second change would require a time machine.

Personally, I feel waiting longer to get vaccine numbers up would be reassuring, but vaccine rates at about as low as ever right now so that could be some time away. Additionally, the scientific view of delaying further could lead to bigger issues this coming Autumn/Winter. As unpalatable as it is, we can not dismiss the impact of restrictions. Mental health (a sector I work in) has never seen greater demand. Self harming is now almost a given in parallel with other issues. Cancer diagnosis, especially early diagnosis, has taken a hard hit. There are many more health related impacts for continued restrictions. The way forward will not condense to binary logic.

 

Common flu is at least 10x less deadly though. When flu is deadly, there are lockdowns https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/article/how-cities-flattened-curve-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus

 

Median reproduction number for the 1918 pandemic: 1.80; Interquartile range 1.47–2.27

Median reproduction number for the 1957 pandemic: 1.65; Interquartile range 1.53–1.70

Median reproduction number for the 1968 pandemic: 1.80; Interquartile range 1.56–1.85

Median reproduction number for the 2009 pandemic: 1.46; Interquartile range 1.30–1.70

 

Median reproduction number for seasonal influenza: 1.28; Interquartile range 1.19–1.37

 

https://bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1471-2334-14-480/tables/1

 

The median R0 value is 5.8 in the US and between 3.6 and 6.1 in other countries.

 

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022519321000436

 

And as it's exponential, 3 is easily twice as bad as 2, 2 is twice as bad as 1.5, which is twice as bad as 1.25, approx.

 

Tell people the restrictions will lift faster the more people get the vaccine, can't be having lazy people not doing their part, there's a war on.

[Ditto]

So to conclude, there are a number of different factors such as R0 rate, mortality rates and many other considerations that need taking on board to guide the approach. I'm not saying the current proposals are right, but I am saying you can't bring it down to binary decision making. On vaccines, we can all see the numbers getting them daily is slowing down - it's still not clear to me why. For over 18's, I've seen nothing other than statements to 'get the jab' as soon as you are invited. Making them compulsory, unless there is a medical reason for not doing so, would be hugely controversial. I think describing people as lazy for not getting a jab is a little unfair.

[smurfomatic]

Making them compulsory, unless there is a medical reason for not doing so, would be hugely controversial.

 

It would also be illegal, under the Public Health (Control of Diseases) Act 1984 the Government cannot force people to be vaccinated.

[Duranis]

Despite the fact that we've got the delta variant ravaging our school, and about a quarter of the school isolating, plenty of kids here are still walking around without facemasks on, staff testing was <40% a few weeks ago, and an average of 60% of kids (or P/G) are consenting to the weekly testing (it was <20% a few weeks ago, before the mandatory-but-not-really testing came in with the NHS staff in gazebos in the car park)

 

Your right on the burn out, I'm feeling it myself, I just want to be able to take my daughter to a play center without the fear of putting myself in the hospital. However when all restrictions are lifted it makes that even worse. How can people be expected to work through that burn out when the Government is basically saying "all is fine, go about your business". I have lost count of the number of times I have heard people say things like "yeah come to the pub, its all ok now we are allowed". When you tell the public "its ok go about your business" that is exactly what the majority of them will do.

 

When you even remove the need to wear masks that is sending a very clear message to the majority of people that its time to go back to life as normal. Even if they do have to enforce another lock down now it is going to be incredible hard to get people to follow it after going so far the other way removing restrictions.

 

To me I honestly don't see any logic behind the decision unless your objective is to try and speed up herd immunity by rapid increasing infections, which was their original plan at the start, until they finally got pushed into not being complete morons. All the other lifting of restrictions can be "arguably" justified as a necessary evil to save jobs, economy, mental health, etc. Making mask wearing mandatory has practically zero negative impact on anything, it doesn't impact the economy or peoples ability to do business or work.

 

Making mask wearing non-mandatory only reinforces the "all clear" signal most people are reading this as and increases infection rates.

[mavhc]

It would also be illegal, under the Public Health (Control of Diseases) Act 1984 the Government cannot force people to be vaccinated.

 

If only the government knew anyone who could write new laws.

[Duranis]

If only the government knew anyone who could write new laws.

To be fair as much as I would love to make every single person get vaccinated if the Government ever passed a law making it mandatory I would riot.

 

I strongly disagree with anti-vaxers and their stupid views put others around them in danger. However Government mandated vaccination programs is scarier to me then Covid, this is coming from someone who can barely breath at the moment with "nothing wrong" with them.

[6Foot2]

Link: https://twitter.com/TeletubbiesHQ/status/1412790031530475524 [Teletubbies Picture Tweet]

 

We’re all vaxxed! Just in time for a Tubby hot summer Who's ready to come out & play

 

 

[mavhc]

To be fair as much as I would love to make every single person get vaccinated if the Government ever passed a law making it mandatory I would riot.

 

I strongly disagree with anti-vaxers and their stupid views put others around them in danger. However Government mandated vaccination programs is scarier to me then Covid, this is coming from someone who can barely breath at the moment with "nothing wrong" with them.

 

Don't need to anyway, just say "when 99% of people get vaccinated, you can go to the pub", and peer pressure would fix the problem

[Ditto]

... objective is to try and speed up herd immunity by rapid increasing infections....

 

I have wondered on this point too. Having vaccinated the majority of those in high risk of death, the now opening now versus later (winter), it does seem to be inevitable amongst the young that herd immunity has been modelled. You often see the figures for antibodies being quoted now qualified with 'from vaccines and infection'. BBC quoted Wales at 91.8% of adults yesterday and two thirds of under 25's having antibodies. I don't hear anyone suggesting herd immunity being achieved yet, but you have to wonder. I did hear from a virologist a couple of days ago, the level needed to achieve herd immunity is very high when the R rate is high, so I think we are looking at 90+% of all population with Delta.

[jmak]

I have wondered on this point too. Having vaccinated the majority of those in high risk of death, the now opening now versus later (winter), it does seem to be inevitable amongst the young that herd immunity has been modelled. You often see the figures for antibodies being quoted now qualified with 'from vaccines and infection'. BBC quoted Wales at 91.8% of adults yesterday and two thirds of under 25's having antibodies. I don't hear anyone suggesting herd immunity being achieved yet, but you have to wonder. I did hear from a virologist a couple of days ago, the level needed to achieve herd immunity is very high when the R rate is high, so I think we are looking at 90+% of all population with Delta.

I can't remember whether I read it or heard on More or Less that with the virulence of the Delta variant, you'd require over 85%. The point they were making wasn't the exact number, it was that you can't reach it even if you vaccinate 100% of adults.

 

So, anyone fancy a discussion on the ethics of vaccinating children when clinical trials are incomplete vs allowing them to become infected with a disease we don't think is likely to cause then serious harm. And once you've decided that, where do then come in the priority list compared to countries with low vaccination rates due to lack of supply?

[mavhc]

It's the amount of antibodies you have that's the question, everyone's already breathed in some of the virus, most people not enough to overwhelm their system. And made a few antibodies. But that doesn't necessarily confer medium term protection from memory B cells and long lived plasma cells as well as a vaccine would. Your body isn't going to be making antibodies for no reason for a long time, unless it has a reason to, like a second massive "attack" of spike proteins.

 

We should be vaccinating 16 year olds at least if there's excess vaccines. Trials for 12-16s have been completed now.

[sonofsanta]

This rather sums it all up: NHS Covid-19 app sensitivity to be reviewed

 

The virus is not any less infectious; if anything, the current variants are more infectious. But the scale of self-isolation is becoming a problem! So what do we do--work to lower community transmission rates, thus reducing cases, thus reducing close contacts? Naaah, we put the cart before the horse and just raise the threshold for bothering to self-isolate. That'll definitely work okay without any repurcussions!

 

Honestly, I always thought the lifting of restrictions would feel like a weight off my shoulders, like a victory--but instead I feel more anxious than I have for a year, like we're sleepwalking into another disaster, and that we're yet again failing to learn the lessons and will end up with both a fourth wave and another severe lockdown once it's all out of hand because we didn't take the small, sensible steps at the right time but buried our heads in the sand and pretended it was all okay.

[Duranis]

Honestly, I always thought the lifting of restrictions would feel like a weight off my shoulders, like a victory--but instead I feel more anxious than I have for a year

 

YES! This is exactly how I'm feeling and couldn't quite describe it but you hit the nail on the head. It felt like we were so close to being able to do it all somewhat safely, then after all the nightmares of the last year and a bit we have all been through its like it was all completely pointless because we are just going to go ahead and pretend its all ok now.