Coronavirus: General discussion (see opening post for rules)

[Ditto]

It's interesting to see how well Canada has scaled up it's vaccination rate. See https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations. I understand large deliveries of Moderna have been a key enabler.

[Danp]

Rise of cases in my local area, 1 nearby school closed, 2 others reduced numbers. With us being a prep school, we have younger siblings and parents who are connected with these other schools. Could be an interesting last 3 weeks of term/year

[Ditto]

There are a couple of interesting points shown up by recent vaccine figures.

 

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Over the last month, rolling average numbers have fallen. They've always varied, but whether this is due to 'bumpy' supply or something else is an interesting question. With the very high percentage of first doses given now, perhaps it is related to vaccine willingness or ability to get the jab. However, the number of 1st timer jabs has risen over the last 3 weeks so that seems contrary.

 

Second jab levels had dropped noticeably in the last 2 and a half weeks, but I would expect those figures to follow the 1st jabs, but the switch to 8 weeks from 12 for the gap makes interpreting those figures trickier.

 

One other observation, and this is more noticeable on the visual trend line, but the weekly variation (peaks and troughs) in each of the weeks, generally varying less than it has in previous months.

[mavhc]

vaccinations per day continue to drop, been going down for a month

deaths been going up for a month

cases doubled in less than 2 weeks

[Ditto]

vaccinations per day continue to drop, been going down for a month

They are less than 10% down on the average weekly rate - they can't increase indefinitely. I'm more interested to understand why they have dropped. Is it supply or something else. I know locally (in the south) a vaccinator spoken to yesterday had said supply had been reduced locally due to supplies being redirected to surge areas, but you wouldn't necessarily expect it to impact national levels. Perhaps the logistics have an impact?

deaths been going up for a month

This follows the consistent science of more cases, leads to more hospitalisations, leads to more death. But, is the link changed and to what degree has the link changed with the levels vaccinations we have now and what can we expect to see as vaccine levels continue to improve?

cases doubled in less than 2 weeks

As above, it follows the well known science. The speed of doubling is clearly linked to the variant being more infectious, but will it relate values change due to vaccinations. We are hearing yes, but I don't have a feel to what degree. I believe 80% of people showed antibodies in a study from the last week or so, many through vaccines and others due to infection. I understand in the Bolton area the numbers have started to stabilise or drop more rapidly than previous waves. With the rapid transmission through unvaccinated school age children, who tend to be less severely impacted or asymptomatic, is the variant peaking quickly then dropping off? Will this trend show in the rest of the UK?

 

The data alone is one part of the picture, the interpretation and understanding of what is leading to the data is more interesting and informative.

[Ditto]

Today's figures for daily vaccines currently (16:30) state 21,080 - I suspect that's an error!

 

*** EDIT - apparently IT error yesterday means it excludes England data ***

Edited June 22, 2021 by Ditto

[Norphy]

IT error... grrr. Data entry error, more like.

[mrstrong]

saw interesting interview on bbc breakfast this morning with Dr Rosemary Leonard (at 6:40am)

 

she said sending whole class or even whole year group home to self isolate for 10 days

when one child tests positive is ridiculous and not needed

 

Still seems to be common practice in schools round here. Are they just following Gov advice

(like the Scottish football team) ?

[Rob_D]

saw interesting interview on bbc breakfast this morning with Dr Rosemary Leonard (at 6:40am)

she said sending whole class or even whole year group home to self isolate for 10 days

when one child tests positive is ridiculous and not needed

Still seems to be common practice in schools round here. Are they just following Gov advice

(like the Scottish football team) ?

 

We run "internal track and trace" and only send home other students (or staff) who were seated within 2m of the positive student for a whole lesson, this seems to equate to 5-10 students per class. Any mixing during lesson transition or break doesn't count as (based on what I was told) the guidelines we're following say we only have to worry about prolonged contact (30 min or more). I assume this is what some level of govt has told us to do.

To my mind, it feels very much based around isolating the minimum number of students possible (which one might argue isn't necessarily a bad thing).

 

In the case of the football didn't they use surge testing rather than isolation?

[the_quick]

We do the same way here, when we had cases (not since autumn) we send max 50 kids in one day - usually 5-10 kids from few classes. Never ever we sent home whole class or even year group. But we had a school in neighbourhood where they had 23 staff self isolating, so they closed most of the school.

[mavhc]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/02/26/science/reopen-schools-safety-ventilation.html has simulations of air flow in a classroom, everyone's going to be exposed.

[Rob_D]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/02/26/science/reopen-schools-safety-ventilation.html has simulations of air flow in a classroom, everyone's going to be exposed.

The article's paywalled, but I vaguely remember seeing those animations before. Does it take into account that covid is an aerosol rather than full airborne transmission?

[Ditto]

saw interesting interview on bbc breakfast this morning with Dr Rosemary Leonard (at 6:40am)

 

she said sending whole class or even whole year group home to self isolate for 10 days

when one child tests positive is ridiculous and not needed

 

Still seems to be common practice in schools round here. Are they just following Gov advice

(like the Scottish football team) ?

Very topical for me as my Yr7 son has just been sent home to self isolate this morning due to a +ve case. In this instance, due to indoor PE because of rain, all those in that session have been deemed close contacts and told to isolate. It might be boys only! They even interrupted a mid-session end of year maths exam, which seems extreme. Where I really feel sorry for him is missing out on weekend football and other outdoor activities - he really needs those.

[mavhc]

"These lines trace the student’s warm breath as it rises and begins to disperse contaminated respiratory aerosols throughout the room."

 

You can usually get around the paywall with searching in google, or incognito mode, that's why I didn't notice.

[Ditto]

The article's paywalled, but I vaguely remember seeing those animations before. Does it take into account that covid is an aerosol rather than full airborne transmission?

Yes, the paywall is a serious PITA, but I'm certain it's (no pun intended) old recirculated info. Even if it is true that 100% of people were exposed, it doesn't mean 100% transmission, otherwise, if you see my previous post, my son and at least 30 of his class mates would be infected right now.

[mavhc]

It's from feb. I did heard of a school where the entire class tested positive though.

 

Age matters, how infected the first person was matters, how many hours in what kind of room with what ventilation matters. And then each person matters, how good is their own immune system.

 

And then maybe they did get infected, but not enough for an LFT test to show.

 

Government still hasn't released the full report into transmission in schools, and that's not going to be because it's all going super well.

[Ditto]

It's from feb. I did heard of a school where the entire class tested positive though.

 

Age matters, how infected the first person was matters, how many hours in what kind of room with what ventilation matters. And then each person matters, how good is their own immune system.

 

And then maybe they did get infected, but not enough for an LFT test to show.

 

Government still hasn't released the full report into transmission in schools, and that's not going to be because it's all going super well.

The last sentence is political so I can't add to that for forum rules reasons. As for the other items, I agree, there are many factors involved which is why very little is purely black and white with all things Covid. Rarely do singular data facts or conclusions lead to an clear singular actions.

[mikeprice]

The last school I worked in has windowd that would open

 

by about 1-2 inches

 

not really effective in terms of air flow - and as a lot of the female teacher were 'of a certain age' the the lack of air flow was noticed many times

 

In these times this needs to be addressed - but at the end of the day - we also need to stop kids 'escaping' ( and Yes I have seen that) and 'random' people using a window to enter the school

 

but then - this should have been part of school design for decades -I can remember hot summer days from when I was at school

 

and I'm pretty sure people have had differing and varying temperature needs for a long time

 

a classroom with 30 kids plus a few adults having 2 windows that open by 2 inches each has been a dumb idea for decades!!

[mavhc]

Install extractor fans and run half of them in reverse. Bonnus, you'll reduce CO2 levels and increase test scores, simplest way to get better exam results

[BOOT]

I still can't book a vaccination appointment.. I am now only given the option to decline the vaccine.

Definitely not an improvement.

[elsiegee40]

I still can't book a vaccination appointment.. I am now only given the option to decline the vaccine.

Definitely not an improvement.

 

Have you tried ringing 119?

[BOOT]

Have you tried ringing 119?

Yeah, nothing available for my age group. And I need to see a doctor before I can go to the nearest 'walk in'.

[Ditto]

Install extractor fans and run half of them in reverse. Bonnus, you'll reduce CO2 levels and increase test scores, simplest way to get better exam results

Except there are no exams!

[elsiegee40]

Yeah, nothing available for my age group. And I need to see a doctor before I can go to the nearest 'walk in'.

 

☹️I guess there’s no alternative to calling your doctor then

[mikeprice]

Granson (4) is having to isolate because a kid at his pre-school tested positive over the weekend

 

but still came to pre-school on Monday and Tuesday

 

 

some people !!!!

 

for some reason his sister and Mum were still OK to go to a Baby Shower this afternoon

 

I'm not sure why this is OK - but 'lots of people' are saying it is OK