Coronavirus: General discussion (see opening post for rules)

[Ditto]

2nd infections not counting towards numbers + school children no longer mixing will have a huge impact on daily numbers.

 

I agree school based infections will have a significant impact. I understand reinfection remains relatively rare, but still limited data. Delta is suspected to be more likely to lead to reinfection though, so that could change. If antibodies wane, whether via vaccine or infection, it could change again in time.

[mavhc]

The peak was in 15-29 year olds, so perhaps more about universities closing

[mikeprice]

I suspect people are avoiding using the app

and not testing when possible

 

Hence fewer positive results - although without these things we can;t be sure about the actual situation maybe??

 

The important thing will be hospital admissions and deaths - those can;t be hidden but someone switching the app off!

[paulkerton]

I would suspect a combination of schools closing, universities closing and cynics deliberately not testing/removing the app so they could be selfish about their "holibobs"

 

The important thing now is to watch the total tests vs positives vs hospitalisations as one or the other isn't going to tell the story, it's a combination of the three.

 

BBC reporting "six days in a row drop" is all well and good as a headline, but the facts are a little more complicated than that.

None of these figures are accounting for Silverstone, The European Cup final or the Step 4 unlock as of yet.

 

It's the hospitalisation numbers now that will give us the truest figures as to what is happening. They are at mid-October 2020 numbers and not dropping at the moment. We're well on the way to 500,000 total admissions for Coronavirus. Quite the landmark.

[psydii]

KCL Zoe programme is currently not showing the same trend as govt data, and has previously been either tracking or slightly ahead of trends of the govt/PHE data. There is very much an attitude of 'lets not count the chickens just yet' in certain data/medical circles. Elsewhere, Boris has been sounding a cautious note today

 

It has to peak sometime and quite reasonable for that peak to be now-ish (give or take a couple of weeks), but this seems a little sudden.

[mavhc]

What exciting new variants will the travellers bring back home to reinfect us all with?, only time and lack of strict quarantine rules will tell

[elsiegee40]

What exciting new variants will the travellers bring back home to reinfect us all with?, only time and lack of strict quarantine rules will tell

 

It has got to the point where many people have probably stopped bothering to read your posts in this thread because they are consistently negative and do not contain constructive analysis.

Edited July 28, 2021 by elsiegee40

[elsiegee40]

@sigma please will you message me and/or @Dos_Box. I have attempted to message you, but you have blocked all messages. For whatever reason that should still allow mods to message you, but it seems to be broken. Edited July 27, 2021 by elsiegee40

[mikeprice]

AT the moment I am in two minds

 

AT the beginning of the year I was contacted by a friend who tried to sort of a class reunion quite a while ago

 

He got a response from a small number of people - mostly the 'in crowd' -but some surprising others

anyway - this time several other responded - and a Zoom meeting was set up which was quite interesting and funny

 

a general concept was set up to meet up at the Old Boys (Yup - it was one of 'those' schools) London Dinner (OK - even worse - but NO it was not Eton and no pigs were involved)

 

 

 

 

but

 

I have backed off

pandemic and all that

lockdown and all that

 

 

and travelling to London, staying overnight, the dinner, staying over night, train back

 

kinda a lot of money for a meet up

 

 

but now - I would love to go - some amazing people to meet up with that I knew well at school - and I am proud of my career compared to them!!

 

but the current situation - I am not sure

 

next lockdown - or just a situation that looks bad but no lockdown despite stats

 

Hmm - not sure

 

sorry - just saying - if I leave it it will be too late

but if I decide to go

 

risking getting the virus is not acceptable

 

not sure

 

I hate this damn thing!!!!

[Ditto]

I think @paulkerton summarises the situation well. I would also add that ONS random sampling data is one to watch for another piece to the puzzle. The Zoe observation is interesting and it's fantastic that that is another viewpoint. Overall, even with the possibility of reduced testing levels for dubious reasons, I don't think anyone really expected to see such a sudden drop in Gov published case numbers. It appears to be unexpected to them too and I think the cautious approach is wise, as it's clear you give this virus an inch and it'll take a mile.

[tg12]

Womp womp. First ping on the COVID-19 tracking app. Surprised it hadn't happened sooner on one of my jaunts into London. Timing was good, I had literally just got on a train to go down to Salisbury!

[Ditto]

Womp womp. First ping on the COVID-19 tracking app. Surprised it hadn't happened sooner on one of my jaunts into London. Timing was good, I had literally just got on a train to go down to Salisbury!

Mrs Dittto also got pinged today - short isolation and free again by Saturday, so very late notice. We suspect it was as a result of the phone in a locker for 90 minutes whilst having surfing lesson!

[tg12]

Just looked on the app, the contact was on Sunday, so while I was at Latitude. So much for protections being in place to get in.

[Slarty66]

Just looked on the app, the contact was on Sunday, so while I was at Latitude. So much for protections being in place to get in.

One of the main reasons I've sold my ticket for Bloodstock this year!

[tg12]

One of the main reasons I've sold my ticket for Bloodstock this year!

 

The precautions themselves seemed fine, I guess the problem is where people were taking liberties with them. Sadly all too easily to pretend you've had a negative lateral flow test. Or that you just weren't showing signs at that point. Ah well. I think the risk is still quite low, and I don't for a second regret going to the festival.

[jmak]

Just looked on the app, the contact was on Sunday, so while I was at Latitude. So much for protections being in place to get in.

One of the issues with the app is that it has no context.

Close contact is defined as

"anyone who has had any of the following types of contact with someone who has tested positive for COVID-19:

face-to-face contact including being coughed on or having a face-to-face conversation within one metre

been within one metre for one minute or longer without face-to-face contact

been within 2 metres of someone for more than 15 minutes (either as a one-off contact, or added up together over one day)"

 

Those are based on indoor contacts and although they count for outdoor contacts according to the app, the risk is much lower. Given the type of event, I'd guess at a relatively low risk for you - although that's not the same as zero.

[Rob_D]

One of the issues with the app is that it has no context.

Close contact is defined as

"anyone who has had any of the following types of contact with someone who has tested positive for COVID-19:

face-to-face contact including being coughed on or having a face-to-face conversation within one metre

been within one metre for one minute or longer without face-to-face contact

been within 2 metres of someone for more than 15 minutes (either as a one-off contact, or added up together over one day)"

 

Those are based on indoor contacts and although they count for outdoor contacts according to the app, the risk is much lower. Given the type of event, I'd guess at a relatively low risk for you - although that's not the same as zero.

How does the app know which way your facing?

[elsiegee40]

How does the app know which way your facing?

 

It doesn’t. The app is cruder in its assessment of close contact. It think it’s 15 minutes within 2 metres of a person who tests positive.

[jmak]

How does the app know which way your facing?

Presumably this is one of the reasons that a call from test and trace has a different status to the automated ping from the app. If your mate sure you went out for dinner and sat opposite each other, you'll definitely get the call. If you happened to be following someone around a supermarket and were within Bluetooth range for a while, you're probably not at much risk, but you might get pinged.

 

Some employers of people who are essential workers potentially exempt from isolation via app have come up with their own rules - essentially employees have to make a risk assessment for themselves...

[tg12]

My parents who I was with for most of the day on Sunday don't appear to have been pinged, which puts it down to one of two performances I went and saw independently of them in the afternoon. Ironically, the one it was most likely to be from is The Vaccines :D

[Ditto]

A couple of interesting recent articles - https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-uk-to-give-kenya-more-than-800-000-doses-of-oxford-astrazeneca-coronavirus-vaccine-12366110 - the key difference with this is direct contribution of vaccines outside of the Covax scheme - it's a start!

 

https://inews.co.uk/news/health/astrazeneca-vaccine-blood-clot-risk-pfizer-covid-jab-study-1127179 - some new research around blood clotting. In a nutshell, this study suggests AZ is no more risky than Pfizer for causing clots, and getting Covid is a higher risk for clotting than either vaccine.

[jmak]

Being an unreformable cynic (just because you're paranoid doesn't mean they're not out to get you!), I haven't managed to dismiss my suspicion that someone with a vested interest might be acting in a way that discredits a vaccine that is being distributed at cost which could reduce sales of a competitor that's being sold at a profit, so I'm not massively surprised to see that.

 

However, previous studies have shown that the risk of a very specific type of clotting is linked to the AZ vaccine - immune thrombocytopenia (ITP). It was already acknowledged that either vaccine had a significantly lower overall risk of clotting than being infected with COVID-19. The summary of the Lancet paper (the only bit that's available without being signed up) wasn't entirely clear on how they'd measured that, unless they were using different terminology (does TTS= ITP?).

 

The other point that's not widely reported is that if it's diagnosed ITP can be successfully treated, so one of the solutions is better awareness and diagnosis.

 

Definitely one to watch.

[mikeprice]

Just been to Tesco - mask wearing looked to be below 50%

 

could just be the time of day - but the average age of non-maskers also seemed to be higher

 

what could possibly go wrong??

[elsiegee40]

Just been to Tesco - mask wearing looked to be below 50%

 

could just be the time of day - but the average age of non-maskers also seemed to be higher

 

what could possibly go wrong??

 

It’s very different round here. I popped into Tesco in Pembury this morning and everyone appeared to be in masks except small children and 1 member of staff.

 

Sainsbury’s and Waitrose in Tonbridge have been the same. If there’s ever anyone not in a mask, or wearing it incorrectly, it will be staff… but the vast majority of people are wearing masks as before.

 

I don’t go at peak times, so maybe it’s different then.

[Roberto]

However, previous studies have shown that the risk of a very specific type of clotting is linked to the AZ vaccine - immune thrombocytopenia (ITP). It was already acknowledged that either vaccine had a significantly lower overall risk of clotting than being infected with COVID-19. The summary of the Lancet paper (the only bit that's available without being signed up) wasn't entirely clear on how they'd measured that, unless they were using different terminology (does TTS= ITP?).

 

I’m an ITP sufferer at the best of times and I’ve had no complications from the AZ vaccine. It’s somewhat counterintuitive that ITP would cause clots, it’s normally associated with low platelet counts and an inability of blood to clot.