Coronavirus: General discussion (see opening post for rules)

[Andrew_C]

I wonder if we will see an increase in Covid-19 cases after March the 8th when all the schools go back and use LFTs. Presumably a number of asymptomatic cases that would otherwise be undetected will appear in the daily figures.

LFT isn't good for spotting asymptomatic cases. See https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/01/12/covid-19-government-must-urgently-rethink-lateral-flow-test-roll-out/

 

However, yes, we will almost certainly see an increase in cases; for reasons obvious to my cat.

[kennysarmy]

LFT isn't good for spotting asymptomatic cases. See https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/01/12/covid-19-government-must-urgently-rethink-lateral-flow-test-roll-out/

 

However, yes, we will almost certainly see an increase in cases; for reasons obvious to my cat.

 

Currently positives in Cheltenham are less than 40 per 100,000, 4 in 10,000, 1 in 2500! - If the downward trend continues before March 8 I honestly can't see schools going back making much of a difference. IMHO.

[Ditto]

Currently positives in Cheltenham are less than 40 per 100,000, 4 in 10,000, 1 in 2500! - If the downward trend continues before March 8 I honestly can't see schools going back making much of a difference. IMHO.

I guess we'll have to wait and see. I suggest if @Andrew_C 's cat is right, the cat should get a tasty treat. If you are right, @Andrew_C sends you a treat. Statistically, I think we will have to look at rate of change rather than absolute numbers. For the real data gurus, perhaps we should get someone to calculate if any change is statistically significant over the preceding 4 weeks.

[mavhc]

Currently positives in Cheltenham are less than 40 per 100,000, 4 in 10,000, 1 in 2500! - If the downward trend continues before March 8 I honestly can't see schools going back making much of a difference. IMHO.

 

UK went from 1000 daily cases in Aug to 23000 by Nov. Now at 10000

[Seb1780]

Oh, a data question

 

In the past week or so the number of daily cases is starting to plateau at around 10,000 cases per day and the infection rate is stabilising around 115 per 100,000

 

With approximately 3.4 million pupils in secondary school and 6th Form that's around 4000 cases based on the assumption that the rate in those age groups is reflective of the whole population. Of course, some of these cases will be being detected already but I can't get a handle on the scale of this.

 

If we see cases increase by 20-30% my interpretation would be that this is just a result of the additional testing in schools. If it increases by more than this then I would suspect the return to schools has caused an increase in prevelance of the virus.

 

If the scientists have got their sums right, I predict we will see a 10-20% increase in cases for a week or two then numbers start to drift down again.

 

Sources:

 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases

https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/school-pupils-and-their-characteristics

[paulkerton]

Currently positives in Cheltenham are less than 40 per 100,000, 4 in 10,000, 1 in 2500! - If the downward trend continues before March 8 I honestly can't see schools going back making much of a difference. IMHO.

 

Using the BBC data (which might be a week out, but its from half-term week)The area I live it's 250 per 100,000, 25 per 10,000 or 1 in 400.

Where I work its 106 per 100,000, 10.6 per 10,000 or 1 in 944 and it has gone up slightly.

 

Schools going back is going to make a difference, and will probably push the R rate towards 1.0 - It's just how close it gets, or whether it hits it or goes over thats the issue. But then again, there's a reason they're getting all schools and all pupils back for 3 weeks before 2 weeks off and not really changing anything else about lockdown. You're going to see the isolated information in the graphing that will show the effect of school returns.

 

The real danger is if schools push the R rate really close to 1.0 again, are they going to push forward with the next steps regardless, like it felt happened in the summer last year? I think announcing dates for those next steps was probably a bit foolhardy, personally.

Edited February 26, 2021 by paulkerton

[kennysarmy]

Using the BBC data (which might be a week out, but its from half-term week)The area I live it's 250 per 100,000, 25 per 10,000 or 1 in 400.

Where I work its 106 per 100,000, 10.6 per 10,000 or 1 in 944 and it has gone up slightly.

 

Schools going back is going to make a difference, and will probably push the R rate towards 1.0 - It's just how close it gets, or whether it hits it or goes over thats the issue. But then again, there's a reason they're getting all schools and all pupils back for 3 weeks before 2 weeks off and not really changing anything else about lockdown. You're going to see the isolated information in the graphing that will show the effect of school returns.

 

The real danger is if schools push the R rate really close to 1.0 again, are they going to push forward with the next steps regardless, like it felt happened in the summer last year? I think announcing dates for those next steps was probably a bit foolhardy, personally.

 

Stay at home, protect the NHS - we've done that!

 

IMO we're almost at the point that cases are irrelevant - 10,000 under 18's testing positive is not the same as 10,000 over 75's testing positive back in the summer before we had all that demographic vaccinated.

 

We have to learn to live with the virus and we're doing an amazing job rolling out the vaccine, so let's start to get back to normal and with the dates announced at least we can see and end in sight now.

[paulkerton]

We have to learn to live with the virus and we're doing an amazing job rolling out the vaccine, so let's start to get back to normal and with the dates announced at least we can see and end in sight now.

 

I don't disagree. My only worry is that stating dates is primed to produce issues if we don't meet those dates.

[Andrew_C]

10000 under 18s positive, who are taking the virus home with them. No good looking at schools in isolation, or we are going to be back where we were in the middle of September again.

 

[6Foot2]

 

Prof Wei Shen Lim, Chair of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI)

Dr Marie Ramsey, Head of Immunisations, Public Health England

 

Estimated broadcast start: 11:00 am.

[kennysarmy]

10000 under 18s positive, who are taking the virus home with them. No good looking at schools in isolation, or we are going to be back where we were in the middle of September again.

 

[ATTACH=CONFIG]60987[/ATTACH]

 

What is your source of data that there will be 10,000 positive cases in under 18's on the 8th March?

[Andrew_C]

What is your source of data that there will be 10,000 positive cases in under 18's on the 8th March?

 

Your post, about three up...

[6Foot2]

Link: First universal coronavirus vaccine will start human trials this year [New Scientist]

 

THE coronavirus sweeping around the world isn’t the first to make the leap into humans and it won’t be the last. Vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 were developed in record time and are performing well. But now we urgently need a different kind of vaccine, say scientists: one that will protect us against other coronaviruses, even those we haven’t met yet.

 

It is a daunting challenge, yet work has already begun on creating such a universal vaccine, with the first human trials of potential candidates planned to start later…

 

Full article behind New Scientist paywall.

[kennysarmy]

Your post, about three up...

 

I'm confused - don't remember posting about rates in under 18's lol

[Andrew_C]

10,000 under 18's testing positive

Really?

[kennysarmy]

Really?

 

I was using it as an example.

 

No one can know how many under 18's will be covid +ve on the 8th March :/

[Andrew_C]

Sure; so am I. While more of the older generation will die, the kids will carry it TO that older generation. LFT won't pick up the asymptomatic (in many cases) and that negative test will influence their behaviour.

[mavhc]

How many people are you willing to let die to get your kids out of the house?

[jthompson]

10000 under 18s positive, who are taking the virus home with them. No good looking at schools in isolation, or we are going to be back where we were in the middle of September again.

 

[ATTACH=CONFIG]60987[/ATTACH]

 

I think the point @kennysarmy was making is that children taking the virus home after 8th March will not translate into the same level of pressure on the NHS as it will have done before anyone was vaccinated. That therefore gives society more headroom.

[kennysarmy]

How many people are you willing to let die to get your kids out of the house?

 

That's exactly it - there will be a number!

 

How many road traffic accident deaths does society consider acceptable so we can all freely move around on the roads?

 

How many deaths from alcohol does society consider acceptable?

 

There are actually people out there who believe we should be striving for zero deaths from covid19 !

[Andrew_C]

There are actually people out there who believe we should be striving for zero deaths from covid19 !

Yup; whole countries with sane, competent, leadership.

[jmak]

The plan we're working to is a political compromise. If you feel the plan is wrong, it's definitely worth making some noise (although not on here because that's against the rules of the forum). The compromise will always be between the two extremes ; whichever side you agree with, if you give up because you think the other side has won, then the other side becomes the new centre ground.

[mavhc]

That's exactly it - there will be a number!

 

How many road traffic accident deaths does society consider acceptable so we can all freely move around on the roads?

 

How many deaths from alcohol does society consider acceptable?

 

There are actually people out there who believe we should be striving for zero deaths from covid19 !

 

We reduced road deaths from 8000/year to 2000/year by making people wear masks, I mean seatbelts, etc.

 

Alcohol deaths increased by 13% since 2001 by doing nothing, around 8000/year

 

Covid 19 deaths per year: 122 000. We found how to stop it, that worked, and then we stopped doing that and another 80 000 people died. That's approx 1 for each class of children.

Edited February 26, 2021 by mavhc

[ICTDirect_Dave]

It's worth noting that we've inoculated something like 92% of all people aged over 70 as of now. That number will only increase.

The point of which is to make sure the older generations do not catch, or at least catch only mild Covid once the schools reopen.

 

We're going to have to trust in that at some point and it looks to me like the roadmap we have (schools first, rule of six, later then shops, pubs in time etc) are designed to allow time increase the number of vaccinated people and also monitor the effects of each successive relaxing of power.

In theory, with so many of the most at-risk currently vaccinated and with social contact between families still tight (for the next 3 weeks at least) the opening of schools is unlikely to have a major impact on deaths further up the risk register.

[Steve21]

In theory, with so many of the most at-risk currently vaccinated and with social contact between families still tight (for the next 3 weeks at least) the opening of schools is unlikely to have a major impact on deaths further up the risk register.

 

I think it's worth remembering that they aren't vaccinated fully yet though, it's only one dose for the majority of those, so even if it's a large reduced chance it certainly would suggest it will have an impact raise up the chain

 

Steve