Coronavirus: General discussion (see opening post for rules)

[mavhc]

500 people a day still dying from Covid

 

They already declared Monkeypox a global health emergency, that's not killing as many people as Covid is today though

[Ditto]

500 people a day still dying from Covid

 

They already declared Monkeypox a global health emergency, that's not killing as many people as Covid is today though

Is the Monkeypox (in fact I should say mpox at WHO's request) situation because of the risk of what is developing and expected to happen rather than the 'now' picture. A more dangerous covid variant could easily be redeclared an emergency.

 

In no way to downplay current Covid death rates, but to give some context around the '500 people a day' figure, in the UK alone between 2017 to 2019, just under 460 people a day died of cancer. (Source - https://www.cancerresearchuk.org/health-professional/cancer-statistics/mortality#heading-Zero)

[mavhc]

Yeah, the reasoning is we know how to cope with covid, it's not increasing. That's always the real question, is it growing or not?

[Ditto]

Gov published Health data is generally trending towards lows not seen for the best part of 2 years. The figures for mechanical ventilation in the latest update is the 8th lowest reported, but this figure isn't going to be updated after next week. Then from 1st June, it will be 2 weeks before another update is to be provided for broad Health covid data. Beyond June 15th. it's not clear whether it's every two weeks or something else.

 

R rate is still over 1, so it would be interesting to understand the how the mix of herd immunity, vaccinations, treatments or waning potency of variants contributes to outcomes. And indeed to what extent all this data is comparable.

 

Something I know of that isn't in these data, is that in a specific cohort of employed insured employees (lets say corporate employees), sickness levels are down compared to historic data. That's interesting in as much as recently published reports say sickness levels at a national level are the opposite, and historically very high. But, the same smaller cohort I refer too have significantly higher death rates (10%+ higher), with heart and other major organ failures being recorded. It would appear covid damage can still have a major impact much further down the line, and I guess it could be decades before we fully understand the impact this virus has had on the world.

 

In case it's your thing, and I have posted this before, it's a PowerBI dashboard that is published and IMHO is a good implementation - see https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiYmUwNmFhMjYtNGZhYS00NDk2LWFlMTAtOTg0OGNhNmFiNGM0IiwidCI6ImVlNGUxNDk5LTRhMzUtNGIyZS1hZDQ3LTVmM2NmOWRlODY2NiIsImMiOjh9

 

If you analyse excess deaths by 'cause', looking at heart and liver related deaths, pictorially it's very clear how the last year looks. As a contrast, look at cancer and there is no strong trend. Of course it might not be because of covid, but it's hard to think it isn't a factor. Could vaccinations be relevant?! Scientifically it shouldn't be dismissed, but it does feel you'd quickly get perceived as being in the 'conspiracy' group!

 

I haven't done much background reading in to the UK's excess deaths data - there is a Guardian article but it was quite political so I'll not post, but perhaps I'll have a look for more medical research based studies.

[mavhc]

Is there an increase in deaths from people who never got covid, or never got a vaccine?

[BOOT]

I know at least a dozen people recently that have been very unwell, same symptoms, negative tests, ending up with a chest infection. It's everywhere, it's not going away.

[Ditto]

Is there an increase in deaths from people who never got covid, or never got a vaccine?

 

Personally I don't know and have not researched it, but it the UK at least it is entirely possible. I do know it has been suggested medical worker strikes have had an impact that would not be linked to covid.

[sigma]

Another factor that appears to have some significance in recent exess death numbers is delays in ambulance response times.

 

Actuarial data also seems to be a reliable source of information to combine with medical data.

[6Foot2]

Link: CDC tracking new COVID variant BA.2.86 after highly mutated strain reported in Michigan - CBS News

 

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced Thursday it is tracking a recently discovered COVID-19 strain, BA.2.86, after a case of the highly mutated variant was discovered in Michigan.

 

"Today we are more prepared than ever to detect and respond to changes in the COVID-19 virus. Scientists are working now to understand more about the newly identified lineage in these 4 cases and we will share more information as it becomes available," CDC spokesperson Kathleen Conley said in a statement to CBS News.

 

Experts say reports of BA.2.86 being spotted in countries on multiple continents — Denmark, Israel, U.K. and U.S. — suggest it is at least capable of transmitting widely and could have been spreading undetected for some time.

 

It comes after the World Health Organization announced it had classified BA.2.86 as a "variant under monitoring" due to its large number of mutations.

 

This strain's rapid escalation to the WHO's "variant under monitoring" category is uncommon. Just three cases had been spotted of the variant worldwide. Virus trackers officially designated the strain as BA.2.86 just a day ago.

 

It is too early to say whether the variant will be more dangerous than the currently circulating strains of the virus. The U.N. agency says more data is needed to understand the threat BA.2.86 might pose, but had accelerated the classification due to its sheer number of changes.

 

The strain's dozens of genetic changes — an evolutionary jump on par with the emergence of the original Omicron variant in 2021 — has raised eyebrows among virologists as cases have started to crop up around the world. Its mutations include some changes at key parts of the virus that could help it better dodge the body's immunity from prior infections or vaccination.

 

"Deep mutational scanning indicates BA.2.86 variant will have equal or greater escape than XBB.1.5 from antibodies elicited by pre-Omicron and first-generation Omicron variants," Jesse Bloom, an evolutionary biologist at the Fred Hutch Cancer Center, said in a slide deck published Thursday.

 

XBB.1.5 is the variant from which many recent strains have descended, and Food and Drug Administration officials had previously picked out XBB.1.5 as the strain for vaccines to target in this fall's booster shots.

 

BA.2.86 has 36 mutations relative to the XBB.1.5 variant, Bloom said.

 

The first U.S. case of BA.2.86 was reported by a lab at the University of Michigan. According to records attached to the sequence uploaded to GISAID, a global virus database, the variant was sequenced from a sample collected by the university's clinical microbiology lab during "baseline surveillance."

 

It is unclear whether the samples were collected from a hospitalized patient in the health system run by the university or from another source. A spokesperson for the University of Michigan Medical School declined to comment on the possible origin of the sequence, deferring to Michigan's state health department. A spokesperson for Michigan's Department of Health and Human Services was not able to immediately answer a request for comment.

 

Dr. Adam Lauring, a University of Michigan professor who runs the lab that sequenced the case, said Friday that they sequence cases from a large area in Michigan for the state health department and CDC. He declined to share additional details about the variant infection, which he said is now being investigated by health authorities.

 

Lauring's lab sequences cases from both hospitalized and non-hospitalized patients, he told CBS News in an email.

 

In Denmark, health authorities say they are currently working to culture the virus, a key step towards further assessing the threat posed by the highly mutated strain. Three cases have been spotted there, the Statens Serum Institute said. None had prior contact with each other and all experienced common COVID-19 symptoms.

 

Researchers in the U.K. have also identified at least one case, Luke Blagdon Snell, a researcher at Kings College London, said Friday. The patient was hospitalized and likely acquired their infection locally.

 

Tracking the spread of COVID variants BA.2.86 and EG.5

For now, experts say BA.2.86 will still need to show it can outcompete other fast-spreading descendants of the XBB Omicron variant already on the rise around the world in order to be more than a "scientific curiosity."

 

One XBB descendant, a variant called EG.5, had already climbed to nearly 1 in 5 cases nationwide as of CDC estimates published earlier this month.

 

New projections are due to be published Friday by the CDC. The agency says BA.2.86 will remain aggregated with its distant parent, the Omicron variant known as BA.2, until it reaches 1% prevalence in its weighted estimates.

 

The strain's emergence comes as drugmakers have been preparing to roll out new COVID-19 vaccines next month aimed at the XBB strains of the virus, of which EG.5 is closely related. Moderna announced Thursday that its preliminary clinical trial data from the new shots confirmed "a significant boost in neutralizing antibodies" for EG.5.

 

Those could face a setback if BA.2.86 is able to spread more widely. Bloom said he thinks the strain's changes are enough to risk making the XBB-targeted vaccines a "fairly poor match" to BA.2.86.

 

But he underscored that BA.2.86 remains rare for now, and other defenses mounted by the body may also still work to fend off the highly mutated variant.

 

"[T]here are also broader mechanisms of immunity elicited by vaccination and infection that provide some protection against severe disease even for very heavily mutated variants," he told CBS News in an email.

[6Foot2]

Link: New Covid variant causing concern among scientists detected in London | Coronavirus | The Guardian

 

It is unclear whether BA.2.86 causes more severe disease but its detection in several countries has put scientists on alert

 

A new Covid variant that is causing concern among scientists due to its large number of mutations has been detected in London.

 

The variant, named BA.2.86, has been detected through genetic sequencing, although only a handful of such sequences have so far been reported. The first was reported in Israel, with the variant since being detected in Denmark and the US.

 

The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) confirmed on Friday that the variant had been detected in the UK.

 

Dr Meera Chand, the deputy director of UKHSA, said: “We are aware of one confirmed case in the UK. UKHSA is currently undertaking detailed assessment and will provide further information in due course.”

 

According to a risk assessment published on Friday by UKHSA, the UK case had no recent travel history, suggesting established international transmission and a degree of community transmission within the country – with more information on UK transmission expected in the next week or two.

 

It said the similarity of the genetic sequences in different countries implied a relatively recent emergence and rapid growth, although this remained a tentative analysis given the small number of sequences. At present, the agency said, there was not enough data to assess the relative severity or degree of immune escape of BA.2.86 compared with other variants in circulation.

 

The World Health Organization announced on Thursday it was designating BA.2.86 a “variant under monitoring” – while the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has similarly reported it is keeping a close eye on the variant after it was discovered in Michigan.

 

As well as outstanding questions over the severity of the variant, it is unclear whether it will become the dominant form of the virus.

 

Its many genetic changes – it has more than 30 mutations in the spike protein relative to the current predominant variant – and its detection in several countries have put scientists on alert.

 

Prof Francois Balloux, director of the UCL Genetics Institute, said BA.2.86 was the most striking Covid strain the world has witnessed since the emergence of Omicron.

 

“The most plausible scenario is that the lineage acquired its mutations during a long-term infection in an immunocompromised person over a year ago and then spread back into the community,” he said.

 

“BA.2.86 has since then probably been circulating in a region of the world with poor viral surveillance, and has now been repeatedly exported to other places in the world.”

 

Balloux added that how well the new variant fared relative to other Omicron subvariants would become clearer in the coming weeks.

 

“Nothing is known at this stage about its intrinsic transmissibility and virulence,” he said.

 

“A priori, it is not expected to behave differently from current Omicron strains in circulation.

 

“Even in the worst-case scenario, where BA.2.86 caused a major new wave of cases, we are not expecting to witness comparable levels of severe disease and death as we did earlier in the pandemic when the Alpha, Delta or Omicron variants spread,” he added, noting that most people have now been vaccinated, infected with Covid, or both.

 

But, he said: “It remains that a large wave of infection by BA.2.86, or any future comparable variant, would be an unwelcome event.”

 

Prof Tom Wenseleers, an evolutionary biologist at the Catholic University of Leuven in Belgium, agreed.

 

“I would be very surprised if the high levels of population immunity would not keep on protecting us well against severe disease,” he said.

 

“But all in all I would say it is relatively likely that this variant may cause an infection wave, even though right now it is impossible to say exactly how large, and also what the impact on hospitalisations will be.”

 

Prof Rowland Kao, an epidemiologist at the University of Edinburgh, said the appearance of a potential new variant of concern was not a surprise. “But,” he added, “it doesn’t mean we are well-prepared for it now.”

 

Among other issues, Kao said Covid appears to be on the rise once more, with hospitalisations also increasing. That, he added, was without evidence the new variant was a factor.

 

“We should expect that the usual combination of autumn return to school and university and work play a part, as well as possibly the seasonal factors,” said Kao.

 

“Plus the bulk of vaccinations have now been some time ago, and even the most vulnerable are likely approaching the point where immune protection is fading.”

 

BA.2.86, Kao said, could add to the pressures, noting that one worry was whether the variant would evade past immune protection and was sufficiently different as to make vaccines less effective.

 

“There is a good chance we are in for a bumpy ride, which will only be bumpier if this variant presents any added twists,” he said.

[Ditto]

The gov Coronavirus data website show England weekly admissions have trebled in 6 weeks. By contrast, numbers in hospital with the virus are double for the same time period. Beyond that not much data to add as the website no longer provides the same detail it used to.

[Ditto]

I'm hearing more local reports of Covid again and gov data suggests the recent lull in growth has switched. School returns are likely to increase numbers. The recent variant does appear to become a more dominant strain, but generally no evidence of greater severity. I wonder if the age 65 and above for vaccine will come down.

 

Perhaps oddly, as an over 50 but under 65, I have been invited to a free flu jab, but not covid jab and I believe covid is still regarded as a greater risk to health.

[mikeprice]

I'm hearing more local reports of Covid again and gov data suggests the recent lull in growth has switched. School returns are likely to increase numbers. The recent variant does appear to become a more dominant strain, but generally no evidence of greater severity. I wonder if the age 65 and above for vaccine will come down.

 

Perhaps oddly, as an over 50 but under 65, I have been invited to a free flu jab, but not covid jab and I believe covid is still regarded as a greater risk to health.

 

I saw something that said the current version was possibly more infectious but less severe

 

 

Oh - and we were offered a free flu jab - but they only have enough for one clinic and we will be away then

 

Pharmacies don;t have confirmed delivery dates yet but expect it in late September - which normally becomes October

[Rob_D]

Pharmacies don;t have confirmed delivery dates yet but expect it in late September - which normally becomes October

By the time our free flue vaccine applications have gone through county and we've got the coupons back it's normally October/November anyway. There's been a couple of years (pre covid) where I didn't get vaccine appointment until after we broke up for Xmas. It came as quite a surprise when I found the vaccines supposedly come out Around September/October time.

Edited September 10, 2023 by Rob_D

[Ditto]

New gov data site at https://ukhsa-dashboard.data.gov.uk/ - it is in beta, but includes flu data as well as covid.

[Brax]

The new variant(s?) spreading like wildfire. I caught covid for the first time ever a week ago and was asymptomatic mostly. Had a strange feeling in my airways which told me something was off. First few tests were negative and then sure enough I was positive. Thankful it didn't affect me that much as I never felt really ill or displayed the common symptoms but it has kept a lot of staff and students off here.

[mw184]

Been hit hard here. 10 staff have already been off with it since the start of term so averaging 2-3 a week. Doesn't seem to be affecting the kids as bad (primary school) but lots of colds etc going around so wonder if that's how it is presenting in the children. All bar 2 of the staff who have had it were hit hard, bed bound for the full time. People starting to get quite worried here now

[mavhc]

Apparently if people in your household have covid, you can still send the children to school, seems a bit daft

[sigma]

Apparently if people in your household have covid, you can still send the children to school, seems a bit daft

 

If your children or you have covid as I understand it they can still go to school and you can go to work. We are still shielding.

[SteveB_NI]

Been doing the rounds here for past month and steadily increasing amongst staff. Whole departments being taken out one by one at the moment. I had it for the first time last month and still suffer from lack of energy afterwards.

 

Don't hear of it so much now amongst the kids.

 

I know the advice given is not very clear - but even if you have covid you can actually still go to work, it's only advised to stay at home. I was in my bed for several days and certainly couldn't go to work - and I very very rarely take any time off sick

[mavhc]

Didn't we invent working from home for this reason about....2.5 years ago

[SteveB_NI]

Didn't we invent working from home for this reason about....2.5 years ago

 

Absolutely right. I'm ready for another period of working from home to be honest... not too long, but I wouldn't complain if it was enforced again for a bit lol!!!

[mikeprice]

I had a text message a couple of days ago saying I could get a Covid Booster

 

Mrs mikeprice didn'

 

anyway - I tried the website it said to go on and managed to get her booked in

Tried to do tje same for me and it said I was not eligible - which was weird!

 

The only difference that I could see was a question about whether or not - then several conditions

finishing off with being on the shield list

She was - although it was a while ago - so I said "yes" to her - and "No" for me as I hadn;t

 

so I assume that was the difference

 

 

Anyway - there was also a number to ring so I tried that and they were quite happy to give me an appointment at a local pharmacy that seemed to be doing loads of flu and Covid jabs

 

so - if you get a message then it might be worth ring them up and seeing what happens

 

if not - just try looking for a pharmacy with a sign saying they are doing Covid jabs and go in and ask

[elsiegee40]

Daughter, who has struggled with multiple long covid problems since getting covid in lockdown 1, was surprised but delighted to get an email from her GP with a link to book a covid jab as she “is likely to be vulnerable”.

 

She’s booked and is getting it done on Tuesday. The last thing she needs is aa relapse. She has been back at work full time for just under 12 months.

 

I don’t know if the GP’s assessment of her has changed or if the guidelines on vulnerability have changed.

[Ditto]

I'm finding the qualifying details hard to track too. I don't qualify for either flu or covid vaccine purely on age. I've been invited to a flu jab, presumably as I am down as having asthma. What I read on the gov site for covid vaccine was if you take steroid tablets you qualify - well I use Fostair which is steroid but not tablet form. Using the online equivalent of the NHSapp, when I answered 'I think I might be vulnerable' (because I really don't know what the definition is) then it allows me to book! It certainly isn't clear!