Future of transport

[Ditto]

Finding data on the web that backs your view and I suspect your wish for "I'll bet on 5 years, specifically by 1st Jan 2031 self driving taxis will be everywhere, ..." is not really that convincing . The figure of 3000 people dieing on the roads everyday is a headline grabber. But add the context that 100,000 to 105,000 people die a day due to natural cause (Source World in Data), then perhaps less so. I'm sure self-driving will come, but not in the timeframe you wish. Societal change is difficult and you can pump all the facts and data for the logic at change, humans are not like Spock. I would not be surprised if passenger airliners could be safer if fully automated, but why then do they have 2 or 3 pilots on every flight. Perhaps against the facts, humans as a whole feel safer in the hands of a well trained man in a suit than they do than our inflatable friend Otto.

[NegativeKillDeath]

7 minutes ago, Ditto said:

our inflatable friend Otto

Especially when he was "distracted"

[Davit2005]

So many traffic incidents/collisions do not need to happen. Very few are medical/mechanical and even then some of those can be put down to the driver/owner not taking responsibility i.e. medication not taken, medical symptoms ignored, mechanical failure due to poor maintenance, etc.

 

The biggest issue causing road collisions/incidents with human road users is lack of planning/observation, patience and ignorance.

Edited January 9 by Davit2005

[LeMarchand]

1 hour ago, mavhc said:

They're already here and people love them

 

FSD 7 billion miles https://www.tesla.com/en_gb/fsd/safety

FSD Robotaxi 250,000 miles

Waymo 127 million miles https://waymo.com/safety/impact

 

Cheaper does not mean everyone will switch, people will pay incredible amounts to not have to put a child seat in a car every time (or just request one with a child seat)

 

But the main reason to do it is humans kill 3000 people a day while driving

 

https://injuryfacts.nsc.org/all-injuries/costs/guide-to-calculating-costs/data-details/ $2 million per death, so 2 trillion per year

 

Your definition of "here" doesn't match mine.

 

You're also assuming that TPTB care that ordinary people are dying due to their lack of action.

 

I'd take your bet but suspect that you'd call the availability of such taxis in a handful of cities "everywhere".

[Davit2005]

1 hour ago, Ditto said:

Finding data on the web that backs your view and I suspect your wish for "I'll bet on 5 years, specifically by 1st Jan 2031 self driving taxis will be everywhere, ..." is not really that convincing . The figure of 3000 people dieing on the roads everyday is a headline grabber. But add the context that 100,000 to 105,000 people die a day due to natural cause (Source World in Data), then perhaps less so. I'm sure self-driving will come, but not in the timeframe you wish. Societal change is difficult and you can pump all the facts and data for the logic at change, humans are not like Spock. I would not be surprised if passenger airliners could be safer if fully automated, but why then do they have 2 or 3 pilots on every flight. Perhaps against the facts, humans as a whole feel safer in the hands of a well trained man in a suit than they do than our inflatable friend Otto.

Think it was said on this forum that there would be no petrol stations by 2025, lol.

 

I think rural areas will be very late to the game. I also think that if public transport was a lot better i.e. reliable, cheap for long journeys, more coverage/capacity there would be less cars, it will not suit everyone of course and there will be a need for personal transport of some sort for decades in my view. The issue with Public transport of course is that one small thing likely impacts a large number of users.

Edited January 9 by Davit2005

[mthomas08]

1 hour ago, Ditto said:

Finding data on the web that backs your view and I suspect your wish for "I'll bet on 5 years, specifically by 1st Jan 2031 self driving taxis will be everywhere, ..." is not really that convincing . 

 

We've been talking about driverless cars for some years now. Yet still not here.

We've been talking about EVs only for a while and still some way to go before we're even close.

 

Best thing to do is wait and see. I highly doubt driverless cars are going to be the thing in 5 years time. We were supposed to have drone deliveries by now everywhere and I still see the same 4-5 drivers up and down my road on a daily basis (when I'm not working).

 

EVs, there are still zero electrical charging points in my area and only the nice streets seem to be getting there. Only 1 EV car on my road and he charges it at work. Shall we discuss solar panels on our homes?

 

EVs.. driverless.. delivery drones.. solar panels..  like all things they don't just pop up over night and I doubt very highly any of it is the norm within 5 years. Unless the government makes it law to avoid them... which even then seem to be delayed.. delayed.. delayed.

 

Then remember who could win the next election and half of that will be thrown out the window.

 

I'd be looking at 2035 for a real change in things at the earliest.

[Rob_D]

36 minutes ago, mthomas08 said:

EVs.. driverless.. delivery drones.. solar panels..  like all things they don't just pop up over night and I doubt very highly any of it is the norm within 5 years. Unless the government makes it law to avoid them... which even then seem to be delayed.. delayed.. delayed.

I guess we're a decidedly middle-class area, but I see solar panels and EVs everywhere these days and the new development near us has pre-installed EV charging for all the resident parking. While EVs aren't ubiquitous yet, they're certainly common enough to not be a novelty anymore. And I can see driverless getting to that point in the next 5-10 years.

 

Or maybe rather than full automation, we'll just see an increase in the driver assistance things like active cruise control or lane assist to the point where driving is mostly automated.

Edited January 9 by Rob_D

[Davit2005]

10 minutes ago, Rob_D said:

I guess we're a decidedly middle-class area, but I see solar panels and EVs everywhere these days and the new development near us has pre-installed EV charging for all the resident parking. While EVs aren't ubiquitous yet, they're certainly common enough to not be a novelty anymore. And I can see driverless getting to that point in the next 5-10 years.

 

Or maybe rather than full automation, we'll just see an increase in the driver assistance things like active cruise control or lane assist to the point where driving is mostly automated.

Humans have lane persist mode it seems, lol. I wonder how self driving cars will deal with that.

[NegativeKillDeath]

52 minutes ago, Davit2005 said:

Humans have lane persist mode it seems, lol. I wonder how self driving cars will deal with that.

 

I only have standard cruise control on my car but I rented one in the summer for a 6 hour drive up north while mine was getting serviced/repaired. It has adaptive cruise control that worked really well and I was grateful for but its lane assist was awful. using the left hand lane going past an off or on slip road the number of times it tried to steer me left was shocking. I suspect it was due to patchy line painting.

[Ditto]

I've only driven the OH's Cupra and the 'assistive' technology is a best interferingly annoying and at times downright dangerous. Happy to live with collision avoidance stuff but lane assist needs to be optional.

Edited January 9 by Ditto

[6Foot2]

Link: Driverless taxis set to launch in UK as soon as September - BBC News

 

Quote

Waymo, the US driverless car firm, said it hopes to be operating a robotaxi service in London as soon as September this year.

 

The UK government has said it plans to change regulations in the second half of 2026 to enable driverless taxis to operate in the city but has not given a specific date.

 

Waymo said a pilot service will launch in April and Local Transport Minister Lilian Greenwood said: "We're supporting Waymo and other operators through our passenger pilots, and pro-innovation regulations to make self-driving cars a reality on British roads."

 

The firm, which is owned by Google-parent Alphabet, showed off a fleet of cars it brought to the UK at London's Transport Museum on Wednesday.

 

Waymo's vehicles are currently being operated by a safety driver, mapping the streets.

 

But when the service launches to paying passengers, there will be no human at the wheel...

 

[AlistairB1983]

On 09/01/2026 at 14:17, NegativeKillDeath said:

 

I only have standard cruise control on my car but I rented one in the summer for a 6 hour drive up north while mine was getting serviced/repaired. It has adaptive cruise control that worked really well and I was grateful for but its lane assist was awful. using the left hand lane going past an off or on slip road the number of times it tried to steer me left was shocking. I suspect it was due to patchy line painting.

 

Had the same thing in a rented Ford Puma back in June whilst my car was in the shop.

 

Utterly terrifying the fist time you move out slightly to go around a car who has 'stuck their nose out' from a turning, only to have the car try and steer you directly back into them because you crossed the white line. Seemingly no way to turn it off permanently either - had to get used to remembering to turn it off as soon as I got in and started it up every time.

[LeMarchand]

On 02/02/2026 at 08:37, 6Foot2 said:

Link: Driverless taxis set to launch in UK as soon as September - BBC News

 

 

 

I read an article that suggested that Waymo is more expensive than traditional cabs. Swastikars are apparently a bit cheaper but have longer waits. Given that it's £7 from town to our house (40 minute walk) I can't see the economics of swapping my car for using Johnny Cabs.

[Davit2005]

25 minutes ago, AlistairB1983 said:

 

Had the same thing in a rented Ford Puma back in June whilst my car was in the shop.

 

Utterly terrifying the fist time you move out slightly to go around a car who has 'stuck their nose out' from a turning, only to have the car try and steer you directly back into them because you crossed the white line. Seemingly no way to turn it off permanently either - had to get used to remembering to turn it off as soon as I got in and started it up every time.

Lane assist in a loan car, it lasted 1 journey till I found out how to turn it off. Overtook a car and coming back into the lane it fought with me. I do wonder how bad we have become to require such systems to be enabled by default, I've never had a problem staying in a lane. It had the speed recognition system too which was wrong 40% of the time.

Edited February 3 by Davit2005

[Norphy]

I had a hire car with that too. At first I thought there was something wrong with the car - the steering wheel kept on vibrating and I couldn't work out why. In the end, I worked out how to kill most of the annoying assist features but couldn't get the speed warnings or "take a break" warnings to shut up.

 

The annoying thing is that those things are incredibly distracting. You find yourself taking your eyes off the road to find out what the car is beeping about. That was a stressful two weeks with that thing!