2015 Election

[sonofsanta]

That may be the specifics, but what actually failed in a spectacular way was the overall risk management. If the nuclear industry can fail to manage risk appropriately in Japan, they can fail elsewhere (and they have). The costs of the Fukashima failure are estimated between $250 and $500 billion - in about the same ballpark as the modern banking crisis - you know the one that happened around 2007 and which we we will be paying for for the next few decades. While fossil fuels might be a bad idea, the risk factors of an individual dinosaur fuelled power station are not anywhere close; it is only when we talk about global use of fossil fuels that the risks approach (and go beyond) that magnitude.

 

Bloomin' 'eck - had no idea the costs had spiralled that high. Still, I'd argue that the economy can recover on a faster timescale than the Planet Earth can.

 

Where's Captain Planet when you need him? He'd get my vote.

[ZeroHour]

BBC has a new game where you can try and build a majority lol: What if no-one wins the election? - BBC News

[tmcd35]

BBC has a new game where you can try and build a majority lol: What if no-one wins the election? - BBC News

 

It's an interesting game. You start wondering if we'll be back at the polling station before the years out? I'm thinking neither party+LD would make a majority. The predictions I've been getting have had only the SNP able to make a coalition, and Labour didn't seem happy about the idea last night. Labour looks like they may have better chance of surviving in a minority government than the Tories, but 5 years in a minority? But then isn't this type of government alternative voting would have produced anyway had it come to pass?

 

Progressive Alliance FTW

[localzuk]

They won't form a formal coalition, but they might have a minority government with some level of support from SNP.

 

That said, you're probably right - I suspect we'll end up with another election in a relatively short time.

[tmcd35]

Well, predictions seem to be coming around 270-280 seats each for Labour and Conservatives, 40ish for SNP, 10-15 for Lib Dems and under 5 each for the rest. Which would make only SNP big enough to be king makers and that would never be Tory. Under those circumstances Milliband would be a fool not to guarantee power with the SNP. But it wouldn't surprise me, if given the opportunity, he tries.

[speckytecky]

How many UK Edugeek members on this Forum? Under 200 so far voted on this interesting poll. What does that say!

[Sheridan]

Alas, my constituency is stuck on labour. It used to be a mining area so therefore people can't see past the old adage that 'workers'=Labour, even though our labour council are rotten to the core.

[flyinghaggis]

At this point it's looking like it'll be Labour supported to some degree by the SNP as the most likely outcome. It'll be interesting to see how that turns out after a couple of years. I worry it's going to create a lot of anti-Scottish feeling among the rest of the UK as the press/media will almost certainty spin it as the SNP calling the shots against what they'll claim to be a weak Labour government.

 

In reality even it the SNP won every single seat in Scotland (unlikely) that's only around 10% of UK seats so they won't manage to put through any of their own policies unless Labour and the Tory's disagree on a specific issue.

Edited April 18, 2015 by flyinghaggis

[zag]

Yep looking at the polls its highly likely to be a Labour + SNP propping them up vote by vote.

 

That will basically mean the end of the United Kingdom as we know it. They will cause enough havoc to break scotland away which will be their end game.

[CAM]

An interesting side-note for the election...

 

GENERAL ELECTION 2015: Ewell man filming his race to become an MP to show people can "stand up" against the system (From Your Local Guardian)

 

He said a "massive life crisis" in his mid-20s made him realise he "had degrees that were nothing to do with what I wanted to do".

 

Mr Harfoot said he is standing for election to engage people with what the process involves as an independent candidate – who he believes can be more representative of constituents because they are not aligned to any political party.

 

Wonder what his policies are.

[flyinghaggis]

Yep looking at the polls its highly likely to be a Labour + SNP propping them up vote by vote.

 

That will basically mean the end of the United Kingdom as we know it. They will cause enough havoc to break scotland away which will be their end game.

 

In practice I don't think a Labour/SNP 'coalition' would be that much different in practice than if Labour won an overall majority themselves but the media backlash is likely to be fierce. I could imagine another 4 years time at the next election the Conservatives sweeping back into power on an anti-Scottish vote take back Westminster vote. Then there's the possibility looming of an EU referendum which could well trigger another Scottish independence referendum especially if the UK voted to leave the EU.

 

[tmcd35]

I could imagine another 4 years time at the next election the Conservatives sweeping back into power on an anti-Scottish vote take back Westminster vote.

 

Given a Labour minority and larger minority progressive parties (SNP, LD, Green, Plaid Cymru) do you think the minority parties would press Labour into a fresh AV referendum?

[Arreks]

No one voted for BNP but a bunch voted for UKIP.. I thought they were the same thing

 

I'll vote Green or spoil my ballot, but I reckon Labour will take the cake this time.

[sparkeh]

Given a Labour minority and larger minority progressive parties (SNP, LD, Green, Plaid Cymru) do you think the minority parties would press Labour into a fresh AV referendum?

I can't see that happening. Labour benefit way too much from FPTP and they can point to the last referendum as settling the issue.

[tmcd35]

No one voted for BNP but a bunch voted for UKIP.. I thought they were the same thing

 

To be fair to UKIP, I don't think they're racist - their policies are just a little misguided is all. I think they are right to raise the issue of immigration and we shouldn't be afraid to talk about it with out being called out as racist, which tends to be the case in this country at the moment. But then UKIP don't exactly help themselves either. Immigration isn't the answer to every political problem we face in this country at the moment...

[flyinghaggis]

Given a Labour minority and larger minority progressive parties (SNP, LD, Green, Plaid Cymru) do you think the minority parties would press Labour into a fresh AV referendum?

 

 

The problem with moving to any alternative/proportional representation system is that it would need to be voted on in Westminster and neither Labour or the Conservatives would readily agree to it, as its not in their interests to change the voting system, so I don't think we'll see it in the near future.

 

I actually saw quite a good video on the first past the post voting system and why it always leads to 2 main parties like we have here and in the US.

 

Edited April 20, 2015 by flyinghaggis

[JRowley]

I can't see that happening. Labour benefit way too much from FPTP and they can point to the last referendum as settling the issue.

 

Under AV Labour would have had an additional 4 seats at the 2010 election, so I don't think that's true. I'm pretty sure Labour would welcome AV with open arms as the conservatives would have lost 25 seats.

[zag]

AV voting nearly always leads to a coalition.

 

The grass is not always greener on the other side

[tmcd35]

But maybe that's the point - a different kind of politics. For all the stick the LD's get, I tend to think they've been a positive influence on this government. I dread to think of some of the Tory policies that may have been enacted if they were given a clear majority.

[sparkeh]

AV voting nearly always leads to a coalition.

 

The grass is not always greener on the other side

Coalition is not neccassarily a bad thing. A lot of countries around the world expect coalitions and seem to manage ok, we are just not particularly used to it in our politics.

 

Majority rules can be seen as bad a anything policies can be passed without any moderation.

[zag]

But maybe that's the point - a different kind of politics. For all the stick the LD's get, I tend to think they've been a positive influence on this government. I dread to think of some of the Tory policies that may have been enacted if they were given a clear majority.

 

Yeh I agree, but in coalitions you tend to get more policies being shot down than co-operated on.

 

Basically first past the post is a great democratic system, leading mostly to strong decisive governments that change every 8-12 years. Its actually a good system when it works.

 

Problem is at the moment that through devolution, the smaller states of scotland, wales and northern ireland have been given far more voting influence which has really shaken up the traditional system.

 

In England, the vast majority of the country votes for the conservatives.

 

SimpleGov

[Arreks]

To be fair to UKIP, I don't think they're racist - their policies are just a little misguided is all. I think they are right to raise the issue of immigration and we shouldn't be afraid to talk about it with out being called out as racist, which tends to be the case in this country at the moment. But then UKIP don't exactly help themselves either. Immigration isn't the answer to every political problem we face in this country at the moment...

 

Perhaps Nigel himself isn't racist but the majority of his party seem to be, there was a minor 'debate' with some representatives of various parties recently near me which I attended - needless to say by the end of it people were actually shouting "racist" at the UKIP rep. His argument was "I'm not racist, I work with a few blacks!".

[flyinghaggis]

If anything I think the lib dems might have been better sticking their ground and adopting a strategy of supporting the Conservatives on a vote by vote basis rather than forming an official coalition. They'd probably have been viewed as more effective had they been seen to be voting on an issue by issue basis siding with either Labour/Torys depending on the topic. With a formal coalition to most observers it just appeared like they were absorbed into the Conservative party collective with very little say.

 

Maybe a "coalition of chaos" would be a good thing!

 

Good name for a rock/metal band as well I reckon

Edited April 20, 2015 by flyinghaggis

[Garacesh]

Maybe a "coalition of chaos" would be a good thing!

VOTES FOR THE VOTE GOD

[JRowley]

In England, the vast majority of the country votes for the conservatives.

 

SimpleGov

 

That's simply untrue, what you are looking at is seats, not votes, which once again highlights the issue with FPTP.