2015 Election

[tmcd35]

It could turn a lot of voters away from Labour if they start throwing a load of things away (Trident / etc) to the SNP to keep them quiet

 

My understanding is they wouldn't have to. For something like Trident or Europe they'd have Tory support, so a majority of the house. They'll be putting forward Labour policies and working with which ever parties, on a vote by vote basis, happen to agree with those particular policies. It's either 'Confidence and Supply' or a full formal coalition that would require deals with the SNP. By all accounts Labour are saying they won't do that, and from what I can see they might be best served by avoiding any deals with other parties. Remember they left primarily want to keep Cameron out, so that puts Ed in government de facto.

[foofighterjim]

If you look at the progressive alliance (LD, Plaid Cymru, SNP, Respect, SDLP) then Labour could potentially survive 5 years on a vote-by-vote minority basis.

 

Pretty much what I expect to happen, I think the days of majority governments are now gone. People have far more information about the lesser parties than in pervious years so people are more inclined to vote accordingly. A couple of governments like this may be what it takes to spark mass debate of FPTP.

[Seb1780]

So, as we're so close to election day. What predictions do people have?

 

My predictions:

 

1. Labour will not get more seats than the Tories. They'll be 5-10 below the Tories.

2. The Tories will attempt to form a coalition to rule with the Lib Dems and DUP.

3. Parliament won't have confidence in that coalition and Labour will form an informal (on a vote by vote basis) coalition between themselves, SNP, Greens and Plaid Cymru.

4. We'll end up in another election before the 5 year term is up.

 

I think wavering UKIP support and the turnout of the "shy Tory" vote will see the Conservatives get nearer 290 seats rather than the 275 most are predicting; the mood is very similar to the '92 election where Major won to the surprise of many. If some of the senior Lib Dem's in Scotland and London can hold their seats then there might just be enough for another Con-LD coalition supported by the DUP.

 

Labour will have fewer seats than the Tories but they will have to tread extremely carefully after Miliband's robust "we will not co-operate with the SNP" comments - if they don't succeed in creating a strong coalition the backlash could be as devastating as the tuition fees backlash has been to the LD's

 

I too believe there will be another election before the full term of this parliament - and if Labour annoy the electorate we could see a majority Conservative government next time around.

[sonofsanta]

It don't half tell you a lot about how uninspiring this lot are that none of 'em can win a majority against the rest of 'em. Has there even been such a paucity of charisma, character and intelligence about the political class?

[localzuk]

It don't half tell you a lot about how uninspiring this lot are that none of 'em can win a majority against the rest of 'em. Has there even been such a paucity of charisma, character and intelligence about the political class?

 

Agreed. We've got a terrible bunch at the moment. The only politicians with any charisma are both nationalist nutters - Sturgeon and Farrage!

[sparkeh]

Predictions:

 

1) Tories get a few more seats than Labour.

2) Lib Dems crash and lose a significant number of seats.

3) SNP take most seats in Scotland

 

So much could happen after the dust settles. Personally I think Clegg will hang on to his seat due to Tory supporters tactical voting but with reduced MPs the LibDem's influence is greatly reduced. This means that its impossible for Torys to form a Government. At this point Cameron could technically hang on until the Queen's Speech and get defeated (interestingly if this happens then there's no compulsion for another Queen's Speech but some form of confidence vote will occur - I think Labour will contest whatever intrument is used and survive with SNP support).

 

Therefore Labour are in power as a minority. This is an interesting situation as they will require SNP support. Most serious commentators speculate that the SNP won't bring a Labour Government down, especially before the Scottish Elections next year. After that... who knows but I wouldn't be surprised by another election before the 5 year term is up.

[Andrew_C]

My prediction for Friday morning? I'll be as cheerful as Marvin The Paranoid Android.

[Gatt]

I predict to about 100% accuracy that come Friday - No one will be happy with the result

[SovietRussia]

Yeah - normally a NC vote needs 3/4 of the House's support - and ALL MPs must vote from what I read - this might not be able to happen given the current 33/34 ish % for Labour and Conservatives..

 

It is 2/3 the number of MPs in the house. If this happens and it passes, Parliament has 14 days to declare confidence in a new Government. If the motion elapses, then a new election is called for. New election date is appointed by the Queen on the recommendation from the PM.

 

Funny that it is, this motion does not apply to the Government losing a vote of the Queens Speech, the motion to declare confidence was changed by this Act, so if the Government lose a Queens Speech vote, then the new motion would need to be passed "This house has no confidence in Her Majestys Government"

 

It is all very complicated!

 

Edited May 6, 2015 by SovietRussia

[6Foot2]

Map: The most Googled leader in the last 12 months by constituency

 

Link: Election 2015: most-searched UK leaders on Google

 

http://i.snag.gy/h2jBR.jpg

[sparkeh]

Yikes! Looks like my neighbours have been Googling Nigel Farage :S

[Grey-gear]

That's a lot of blue and purple...

[sonofsanta]

Apparently Horncastle & Louth have been Googling Nicola Sturgeon, which won't do us much good.

 

Maybe people are Googling Farage to have a good old laugh at his smug, smug face? All the silly things he's said? Maybe? Please?

[clockend25]

Farage is a reptilian shapeshifter.

[LeMarchand]

Map: The most Googled leader in the last 12 months by constituency

 

Interesting that Natalie Bennett is the most searched for, but only "wins" in a couple of places. A good argument for proportional representation?

[Gatt]

Hmm... Thats the most blue (aka Tory) Scotland has seen in a long time.....

 

Tory comeback?

[Garacesh]

Farage is a reptilian shapeshifter.

Farage is all of the prime candidates. Why do you think he hasn't been showing up to debates?

[Grey-gear]

So anyone going to watch the live coverage on the BBC then?

[tmcd35]

I'll be up and about around 3-4ish on Friday morning to watch the important results roll in. Might as well get some kip while the counting is going on.

[Gatt]

I'll be up and about around 3-4ish on Friday morning to watch the important results roll in. Might as well get some kip while the counting is going on.

 

 

read that is "get some ukip"

[tmcd35]

read that is "get some ukip"

 

That as well. Drive round town wearing bed sheets and burning purple rosettes outside suspected supporters homes. The UKKKIP

[Garacesh]

That as well. Drive round town wearing bed sheets and burning purple rosettes outside suspected supporters homes. The UKKKIP

Somebody photoshop this now.

[Grey-gear]

Guys maybe tone it down a bit as this is not BTRD.

 

sorry just think about the rep of the site.

[LosOjos]

Guys maybe tone it down a bit as this is not BTRD.

 

sorry just think about the rep of the site.

 

I don't think there are many places where UKIP bashing could damage your reputation...

[Garacesh]

Serious question.. What "Live coverage" can the BBC have? O.o

 

They could have a "Live reveal", I guess, where whatever bod counts the votes says "$Party have won!" but what kind of 'coverage' can they have? (Live Coverage, to me, implies constant, continuous footage of some variety.).. Are they just going to have people with big cameras stood outside polling offices watching the queues move slowly..?