30 years from now?

[Anti]

I'd like to ask some opinions about something that's been on my mind recently.

 

Within the next thirty years, plastic will probably be the most expensive component in computers or tech-devices due to petroleum prices and shortages. Whilst I can envisage us getting power for transport and electricity from another source (such as nuclear), I can't see what will replace oil-based polymers, especailly as there is so little time to develop something completely different? Most plastics are thermosetting and cannot be recycled like thermoplastic can, so it's not just a case of having a good recycling program, as we can for aluminium.

 

It's scary to think that within our lifetimes, after struggling to get technology into schools, that they may have to regress to pencil and paper. It's even scarier that I may not have a computer during my retirement - what would one do all day?!

 

Any thoughts?

[openhgs]

Cases could be made of metal like they were in the big iron days. We had proper computers then, not the toys we have today, computers made of steel plate not cheap and nasty plastic. Steel is recycleable and can have many different finishes applied. You could have a gleaming chrome plated case. Wood or stone are other possibilites, albeit expensive; both of which are available now. This page http://www.ecogeek.org/content/view/62/1/ has some lovely wooden examples. (Hate the blue lights!)

 

We might also see the organic or the quantum state computer, but I doubt either will be in 30 years. Thirty years ago, when I started my computing career, it was said that binary would be out in 10 years time and computers would be tristate (base 3). I haven't seen any manufacturer offering a commercial tristate machine. We might also see more use of analog computing. I think that there are several financial problems which might be solvable using analog methods.

[CyberNerd]

I really don't think this will happen within the foreseeable future.

Most polymer precursors are currently obtained from oil, but thats only because its currently the cheapest way of doing it - theres always a way of making chemicals, for example the South Africans used to produce gas and oil from coal and brazil is famous for making ethanol from sugar cane (which turns out to be quite an environmental problem). Plastics can be broken down into usefull chemicals, again it's just prohibitively expensive to do so at the moment. The market will change but there will always be a way of producing pharmaceuticals/plastics etc, it will just get more expensive.

[FN-GM]

You never know in 30 years time people will be like "What’s Broadband?"

 

Z

[beeswax]

It's even scarier that I may not have a computer during my retirement - what would one do all day?!

 

I came across a great portable learning device the other day. I think it was called a book.

[webman]

We'll all be living on the moon; and be taking regular delivery of new materials, fabrics and alloys via Planet Express sent by aliens.

[laserblazer]

15 years ago I was told that 2Kbit was the maximum data rate that a telephone landline would support. When you consider how technology has evolved over the last 30 years I think it would be futile to guess what will happen over the next. I'll be 88 and probably still at work because my pension is worth SFA.

[sidewinder]

I think there probably will still be computers around in 30 years but I just cant see them being as widespread and probably what will be around will be old equipment that has been kept going

 

And as for the internet, I cant see it really dissapearing as all the infrastructure is already there, but as energy becomes more expensive and we are forced to switch, energy for heating etc will be more essential than energy for servers and routers. But I can see some form of it carrying on because there will be areas with good potential for renewable energy

 

After the age of oil I cant see how plastics could ever be produced in anything like the quantities they are now. Yes you can produce them from natural plants probably, but again in the future I can see land being prioritised for the growth of food rather than for fuel or chemicals

 

Its worrying but its something we have to accept. Of course there will always be people who believe everything can go on growing forever, but it isnt possible. Within our lifetimes we will have to significantly simplify the way we live

 

And those reasons are why things like 3 year replacement cycles annoy the hell out of me. Yes there economic benefits in replacing equipment but there shouldnt be. If the industry had any common sense we would be reusing and maintaining, and only upgrading when it was absolutly essential, not binning perfectly good equipment every few years

[unixman]

In 30 years I suspect the PC will be no more. The quantum computer will be the norm but the purchase and operating costs will be beyond the realm of most business. Computers will be centralised; a return to the big iron days. Ken Olsen will be proven right; actually he is right already! Perhaps quote wrongly attributed to Thomas J. Watson will come true too.

 

Individuals will access the centralised systems using a thin client or similar. Access will be provided by companies similar to the current ISP. Man/machine symbiosis will be a contraversal issue in the future. Some will embrace it but the majority will reject it outright.

 

For you wet behind the ear whippersnappers :

Ken Olsen (co-founder DEC) famously said "There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home."

Thomas J. Watson (IBM boss) was reputed to have said "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers."

[openhgs]

Ken Olsen (co-founder DEC) famously said "There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home."

 

A wise man indeed! The most useful home computer I had was the one that stopped the junk stashed under the stairs from spilling out. It did it's job perfectly for several years and never gave me any problems. Eventually it was tossed, along with said junk.

 

Centralised computing accessed by something like a thin client is a fine idea. The big obstacle is overcoming the PC mind set instilled by M$.

 

Man/machine symbiosis. Some will be enamoured by the technology and embrace it, accepting substandard quality and performance in the name of "convenience", just like they do with their mobile phones. The camera quality of a mobile is appalling. A Minox is just as portable and has far superior picture quality and this is the reason one is part of 007s tool kit. We investigated man/machine symbiosis when I was at uni in the 1970s. The obvious use is something like switching on the TV and tuning to your favourite channel as you enter your lounge, or the ATM machine knowing who you are without inserting your card. I'm quite happy to switch on the TV manually and push the buttons on the ATM machine.

 

It is conceivble to download your memories to computer, allowing them to be preserved forever or so that someone else could live your experiences. Great! An endless supply of Z list celebrities, ready for the gullible.

[gwendes]

Bioplastics? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bioplastic

 

The PC will be a specialist item - for gaming and video work. There will be an internet, TV, media 'hub' in the home.

 

Some of the comments remind me of the Hitchhikers Guide character Gogrilla Mincefriend (from wiki)

 

"An enterprising chap who addressed the problem of elevators refusing to operate because they had been afforded a degree of prescience (to facilitate their operation by allowing them to be waiting for you before you've even decided you want to go up or down a floor) but consequently become terrified of the future, and so taken to hiding in basements.

 

Mincefriend became very wealthy when he patented and successfully marketed a device he had seen in a history book: the staircase."

[tech_guy]

In 30 years time we're all going to be dead.

[tmcd35]

For those who haven't seen it yet...

 

TeacherTube - Shift Happens

 

If I've got the right version, it includes a good bit on moores law and where computers will be in 2050. Can't wait!

 

As for 30 years time - I'll be retired, and a long way off dead hopefully!!!

[Theblacksheep]

Back to consoles (all devices are consoles) working on a central world government computer system. Edited November 13, 2008 by Theblacksheep

[tmcd35]

My predictions...

 

1) Maybe WiMAX, maybe something else. But something soon will replace 3G and WiFi and combine them into 1 fast, reliable networking service that will support VOIP and IPTV. No more broadband, sky, cable, mobile phone or physical networks.

 

2) WiFi/WiMAX/??? speeds will top 10Gbps doing away with any need for cables.

 

3) Just about everything will be web based - Word, Excel, Powerpoint, TV, Games, Radio. Only a few specialist applications will still be run on the desktop. Although the Virtual Desktop would probably take care of them as well.

 

4) Desktop PC and terminals will be gone. Laptops and Netbooks is were it's at. With a few Set Top Box style devices thrown in for good measure. Probably made from recycled cardboard or old tyres?

 

5) Arcades will make a comeback as console gaming falls into obscurity. Yep VR baby.

 

6) All the above will sport little white Apple logos on the back

[MattCrick]

Aptly quotes some user's signiture (I hope I have this right...)

 

Every time someone buy's an apple, god kills a kitten...

 

Genius!

[tmcd35]

7) for some reason, scientist won't be able to explain, there will be a mass extinction of all feline based mamals - It is rumored that this event will coincide with a sudden surge in uptake of Christianity/Islamism/Judasim/Scientology amongst the scientific community.

[Face-Man]

If you have the time this makes some interesting predictions

 

Kevin Kelly on the next 5,000 days of the web | Video on TED.com

[phreak]

 

Every time someone buy's an apple, god kills a kitten...

 

Genius!

 

I have seen something similar in a t-shirt

 

http://image1.bubbleshare.com/media/01/07/52/3a/b72aa49fae69489bc69ba3a9739d874f95d8dcbc/580x435/dead-lolcats_580x435.jpg

[SYNACK]

The plastics issue is not a difficult one to solve, as others have said the technology already exists to break down existing plastics - all be it expencively - and there are many other options avalible, bioblastic, silicon, wood , non conductive carbon nanostructures, all of which are avalible in truely vast amounts.

 

The real resource issues will be with rare earth metals, currently all LCDs and plasmas use an amount of rare earth metal in their contruction. The price of this has been steadily increasing to the point that one of the largest viable supplies is now recycling of older moniters. The total amount is scheduled to be in use by around 2017 at which point an alternative must be in common use or it is back to CRTs.

 

I think that the common view of 'back to terminals' is short sighted and inaccurate. The terminals that everyone is so fond of these days have (and need) more processing power than the original big iron that ran the big terminal networks to begin with. This will not change until data becomes ubiquidis and accessable within 5ms from anywhere. The upcomming model of computing is more of a hybrid modle of the two before it. There will remain a certain amount of processing ability in the home and devices but larger jobs that are becomming more common will be outsourced to larger systems. Even the fabled web apps have been attempting to be workable offline. This insistance on the browser being king is also a frightning reality, the browser as it stands is not the best solution and a propper framework application that simply provides protocol access and GUI headers would forfill the need more reliably.

 

The technology for the moment and even in the forseeable future is constrained by the limited resource that is bandwidth. Most of the major developments with content have been made due to compression algorythms that have enabled better use of the limited bandwidth and requireed more and more processing in the home. Unless there is a huge breakthrough and vast investment by all parties (unlikely) then bandwidth and latency will remain an issue that will dictate the need for a good helping of storage (cache) and processing to overcome.

[torledo]

I think that the common view of 'back to terminals' is short sighted and inaccurate. The terminals that everyone is so fond of these days have (and need) more processing power than the original big iron that ran the big terminal networks to begin with. This will not change until data becomes ubiquidis and accessable within 5ms from anywhere. The upcomming model of computing is more of a hybrid modle of the two before it. There will remain a certain amount of processing ability in the home and devices but larger jobs that are becomming more common will be outsourced to larger systems. Even the fabled web apps have been attempting to be workable offline. This insistance on the browser being king is also a frightning reality, the browser as it stands is not the best solution and a propper framework application that simply provides protocol access and GUI headers would forfill the need more reliably.

 

.

 

I agree that we have been looking at a hybrid model with most what i would term thin client models.....they still require a processor, memory, certain amount of flash storage and ofcourse an embedded OS.

 

Sun Ray/Tarantella technology with it's connection broker architecture is probably as thin as most people want to go........but even with that they have to build in in local multimedia redirection because of the bandwidth and latency issues you mention.

 

It's impossible to say what we'll see thirty years from now, recycling/reusable components and so-called green computing are issues today. And it's not just power consumption at the client side which is the issue. The big datacenters from the likes of Google are coming under increasing scruiting when it comes to their own massive space, heating and cooling requirements.

 

In terms of the browser as the portal......are your primary concerns performance and securty, or do you fear usability problems. Microsoft are obviously pushing .net as their framework for web and win32 apps, are you thinking of something .net or J2EE in nature to provide a better thin computing/cloud computing experience for the end user going forward ?

[SYNACK]

It's impossible to say what we'll see thirty years from now, recycling/reusable components and so-called green computing are issues today.

 

In terms of the browser as the portal......are your primary concerns performance and securty, or do you fear usability problems. Microsoft are obviously pushing .net as their framework for web and win32 apps, are you thinking of something .net or J2EE in nature to provide a better thin computing/cloud computing experience for the end user going forward ?

 

I agree that technology in this area moves so fast that it is impossible to see that far ahead with any certainty. Any major paridigm changing breakthrough could completly change the way things develod.

 

My concerns with the browser as the portal are incluside of all of the thingd that you meantioned. Primarily the browser is at is heart a document viewer with constraints on its UI features to match. I think that the best match up will be a seamless GUI layer tacked into whatever OS that you are running that just handles the communications and gives the program GUI hooks to play with so that it can render as part of the OS rather than layered on a usually buggy, security hole laden browser.

 

If it is specialised then seamless apps will be faster more secure and less irritating as they will not have to deal with the issues caused by code present to deal with 50 billion HTML spec revisions.

 

In my view the closest things to this at the moment is the .net framework/java framework. I think that silverlight/moonlight could actually be a convincing start to this as by using the same design underpinnings the code can be handled by the interpreter as a plugin or directly on the abstraction layer of the OS making it more manageable.

 

Honestly I think that the main thing holding back browser based apps is the browsers themselves. Yes there are some impressive apps out there but they are limited by their enviromnent. If another, less typecast hosting system could become as entrenched as the browser along with an easy way to aquire the apps, one click link add off the browser - which then transfers responcibility to the OS. With this type of system most users would not even notice the difference, only the benifits. At that point the OS would really begin to matter a whole lot less to the masses as long as the overlay was compatible.

Edited November 13, 2008 by SYNACK

[NikChillin]

Asta la vista baby...........

[CAM]

I think the centralised server idea is coming true already. Look at our gaming habits at home, MMORPGs have rocketed in popularity and they rely on the client sending data back to a central server for processing. Same with other genre's, they often have a multiplayer or reward system that feeds back to a central server to allow the program to function.

 

However, I think core OS work will happen locally to improve speed. It's the programs that will be centralised with Windows on the Hard Disk and Word on a central server. At first we will have them centralised on our servers, but eventually we will have large companies holding our programs and documents over the Internet.

 

Unfortunately the malware writers will also move on as we advance.

[duncane]

Printable electronics will have come to the fore. It will be as cheap to produce paper-based electronic devices as it is to produce books. Paper will be interactive, and powered by the warmth of the hands that holds it, or the light that shines on it.

 

Copyright will have been abolished - bands will make their money from live gigs. Video conferencing will be the order of the day, to reduce the environmental impact of travel. There will be a slower pace of life, with airships replacing aeroplanes. The emphasis will be on leg room, good food, and comfort.

 

And everyone will speak Welsh.