9th Gen Consoles - What should we expect?

[Dos_Box]

Seeing as it's going to be about 10 years until we see the next generation of consoles I spent some time lying awake in bed last night - due to the heat and hay fever disallowing any kind of meaningful sleep – and think that whilst we really cannot second guess the hardware standards for gaming that far ahead we can take a stab at the capabilities of the next gen boxes from Microsoft and Sony – Nintendo currently sitting on the irrelevant step. I think that gaming would only be 50% of the capability of what these boxes would deliver.

 

So far I came up with:

 

 

A lot more digital home interactivity: Hopefully things like networked electric metering, home appliance power control and home power\heat management will begin to have some type of standards applied and operating systems will be able to take advantage of these with IP6 being in common use by this time.

 

External media device control: Devices that are currently standalone items such as radios, media playback devices and TV’s will have the ability to be controlled via a third party so you can have your Xbox\PS5 control these via voice commands.

It would be nice to have these remotely controlled by wireless voice command senders that you can position around your house that then send your voice commands to your system, which in turn controls your media devices. It would not surprise me if Microsoft is already working on a house control OS.

 

 

More digital media control: With more and more people shifting to online streaming services the systems would provide the ability to pre-stage online shows or record live TV. I also think that current release on DVD and Blu-Ray would be available to download in a digital format at the same time. You would also be able to pre order movies and have them waiting for you on release day.

 

 

An IP telephony exchange: Your home phone as well as certain mobile handsets would tie into your system. If your mobile rang you could pick up the call remotely via the aforementioned wireless senders and the speakers of the devices your systems controls. Obviously the technology would detect where you are when you ‘pick up’ and only send audio to the nearest device. Or even allow you to roam around the house whilst speaking.

 

 

I don’t think that the processing and storage of the next gen systems is going to be a problem as the CPU’s in 10 years’ time would be beasts and it’s not unreasonable to say that 2TB of SSD storage would not be bank breaking.

It would be fair to say that it’ll be interesting so see what transpires.

I just wonder if Nintendo will still be a player?

What would you like to see?

[abillybob]

errrm.... still rubbish. Computers will still dominate whatever a console can do

[sted]

i suspect there wont be a next gen console as such the funcationality will just move to your "digibox" and all the heavy lifting will be done elsewhere so you cant pirate games all you do is effectively rent runtime to use them i suppose a bit like spotify

[X-13]

all you do is effectively rent runtime to use them i suppose a bit like spotify

 

At which point piracy WILL continue and be far superior to the legit DRM infused version and the entire gaming industry will be die out.

 

 

Seriously, what is it with everyone happily giving up their [and my] consumer rights?

Edited June 18, 2014 by X-13

[Dos_Box]

i suspect there wont be a next gen console as such the funcationality will just move to your "digibox" and all the heavy lifting will be done elsewhere so you cant pirate games all you do is effectively rent runtime to use them i suppose a bit like spotify

 

Thats what I'm trying to say. The next gen consoles won't be primerily gaming devices as such. More the electronic brain of a home.

[featured_spectre]

If my friend that works for Sky is anything to go by, Sky will be integrated into the next xbox, so if you have gold you can use the xbox as a satellite box (streams everything from the net like the sky app does now)

[X-13]

so if you have gold you can use the xbox as a satellite box

 

So, pay to use something you're paying for?

[tmcd35]

Honestly?...

 

I think they'll be here some time around the 2018-2020 time frame, though 2020 seems a bit late. The specs are not good enough for current gen to last 8+ years like the last gen did.

 

Console gaming will never die Truth is apart from PC's no other convergence tech are willing or able to put as powerful a GPU as consoles do for price and/or power consumption reasons. Even in 5yrs time Sony/MS will be able to put a better GPU in a new console than Apple could put in an iPhone (although iPhone GPU's then might be > console GPU's now).

 

I don't think enough of the world will be connected with fast enough broadband and even if they were downloading 100Gb+ games will be an ass, so optical drives will still be in fashion.

 

I think we'd be looking at speed bump versions of this gen. So newer CPU/GPU core, maybe more RAM, definitely larger hard disk - probably SSD. I don't think you'll see more than 8 cores, or more than 12Gb-16Gb Ram. At least not unless 4K TV really takes off in that time frame. The next big leap graphically is real time ray tracing at 1080p60. Although current gen GPU's can do real time software ray tracing, I don't think they can do it that fast.

 

3D headsets and motion cameras are a passing fad - but I don't think they'll be completely gone and forgotten by then.

 

That's pretty much it. Console are limited largely by TV technology. Which is why Sony didn't go to the expense of putting a better GPU in the PS4. Until 4K is the de facto standard all we'll see is a speed bump of current tech when the time is right.

 

Unfortunately Cable/Satellite companies and increasingly Apple/Netflix hold too much sway over digital media for the mythical single convergence device to ever materialise.

 

I think Steam is going to be a missed opportunity and will flounder. Amazon are looking increasingly the dark horse to watch out for. May be Lenovo are another likely to take pot shots at the console market.

[Grey-gear]

More fitness features, e-mail and calendar intergration and an alarm clock.

[fiza]

What about them adding in holographic gaming?

 

HowStuffWorks "How close are we to holographic gaming?"

[featured_spectre]

So, pay to use something you're paying for?

 

Yes, however the live functions as the online portion such as on demand, and recording shows direct to the console.

[Dos_Box]

Honestly?...

 

I think they'll be here some time around the 2018-2020 time frame, though 2020 seems a bit late. The specs are not good enough for current gen to last 8+ years like the last gen did.

 

Console gaming will never die Truth is apart from PC's no other convergence tech are willing or able to put as powerful a GPU as consoles do for price and/or power consumption reasons. Even in 5yrs time Sony/MS will be able to put a better GPU in a new console than Apple could put in an iPhone (although iPhone GPU's then might be > console GPU's now).

 

I don't think enough of the world will be connected with fast enough broadband and even if they were downloading 100Gb+ games will be an ass, so optical drives will still be in fashion.

 

I think we'd be looking at speed bump versions of this gen. So newer CPU/GPU core, maybe more RAM, definitely larger hard disk - probably SSD. I don't think you'll see more than 8 cores, or more than 12Gb-16Gb Ram. At least not unless 4K TV really takes off in that time frame. The next big leap graphically is real time ray tracing at 1080p60. Although current gen GPU's can do real time software ray tracing, I don't think they can do it that fast.

 

3D headsets and motion cameras are a passing fad - but I don't think they'll be completely gone and forgotten by then.

 

That's pretty much it. Console are limited largely by TV technology. Which is why Sony didn't go to the expense of putting a better GPU in the PS4. Until 4K is the de facto standard all we'll see is a speed bump of current tech when the time is right.

 

Unfortunately Cable/Satellite companies and increasingly Apple/Netflix hold too much sway over digital media for the mythical single convergence device to ever materialise.

 

I think Steam is going to be a missed opportunity and will flounder. Amazon are looking increasingly the dark horse to watch out for. May be Lenovo are another likely to take pot shots at the console market.

 

I disagree at the time frame you suggested for the launch of next gen consoles. It'll simply be seen as cashing in on the gamers. Especially as many will be waiting until there is a good catalogue of games available before they buy; in the next couple of years I reckon.

By this time you are saying that they will have 2 more years before the next console is released. I can't see it. Consumers are far too savvy about this kind of behaviour and the manufacturers know it.

I think they will wait until the tech is in place and release a 'must have' rather than a badly received cash-in.

[X-13]

It'll simply be seen as cashing in on the gamers.

 

And the fact they're locking more and more content behind subscriptions and DLC isn't?

 

 

As long as it's got the latest CoD I doubt the majority will care.

 

 

Consumers are far too savvy about this kind of behaviour and the manufacturers know it.

 

You sure?

 

Have you seen the way Xbox/PS4 gamers are justifying locking multiplayer behind a subscription, even after [person] at Microsoft admitted the X360 online was peer-to-peer.

Edited June 18, 2014 by X-13

[localzuk]

I think the console makers have been rather conservative with this generation of consoles - as it makes little sense to produce a device that lasts 8 years for a company trying to make money from that hardware. Especially when technology is improving at such a rapid pace as to make the technology obsolete within a year.

 

So, my guess is that they'll release a new console sooner than they did with with this generation. Probably around 6 years.

 

However, that said, I think the shift will be towards centralised processing - games will be streamed to the end user on any device they want to. So, it might be that companies like Microsoft and Sony start developing platforms (and controllers to go with them) which get integrated into other manufacturer's devices such as TVs, phones, and the like.

 

Valve have put a lot of effort into their game streaming technology (as have other companies), and their console appears to be under constant delay - it may be that they hold off on release and simply release a "remote streaming" service instead. Its what I'd do if I were Valve.

[klingklang]

I'll be happy if they run emulators

[tmcd35]

I disagree at the time frame you suggested for the launch of next gen consoles. It'll simply be seen as cashing in on the gamers. Especially as many will be waiting until there is a good catalogue of games available before they buy; in the next couple of years I reckon.

By this time you are saying that they will have 2 more years before the next console is released. I can't see it. Consumers are far too savvy about this kind of behaviour and the manufacturers know it.

I think they will wait until the tech is in place and release a 'must have' rather than a badly received cash-in.

 

Look at previous generations. Even the humble 2600 was only ever designed with a 3yr life cycle (it lasted much longer for various reasons, not all of them good).

 

The last gen was an oddity and by the end the console market was in decline because after 8yrs it was hardware saturated with out of date tech. The specs of the current gen just aren't up to that level of longevity.

 

Bringing out updated specs sooner doesn't mean dropping older consoles. Sony have a very good record of supporting their consoles for around 10 years. So yes the PS4 might still be available in 10 years time with new games being developed (just like PS1, PS2 and now PS3 will). But PS5 will hit the shelves sooner rather than later - IMHO.

[X-13]

I'll be happy if they run emulators

 

Wii U sort of does.

 

[CAM]

Just look at what PCs are doing and apply I to consoles a generation later.

 

- No seriously, I think home control won't take off yet but we will see a move away from disks as they attempt take 2 at digital format only. Everything is shifting to that already. I also predict Steam and/or Origin may find it's way on to a console. A big distribution platform like those two won't go ignored as whoever ends up the minnow looks towards them to be able to compete. Remember, Steam already exists in limited form on PS3 and Nintendo nearly tied a deal to use Origin instead of their current store. What's left of the high street will be download codes or some sort of Read Only SD-Card if technology becomes cheap enough and DVD capacity becomes insufficient.

 

- With more controllers finding their way on the PC as it slowly shifts towards the living room, we might see cross-platform play with PC/Console if someone is willing to try. Valve's SteamOS controller will make waves even if SteamOS flops.

 

- DLC plague will get worse.

 

- PC gamers will continue a shift from Windows to Linux. It will still not be dominant without support from EA however and Windows will remain king.

 

- Voice control will become the norm. Kinect style systems will be integrated along with the likes of Siri and Cortana (Cortana on MS Platforms will be very likely).

 

- Nintendo will still be around, they have too much in financial reserves to fail this gen. The next Nintendo platform will fare better as they learn lessons from the current one and Iwata gets replaced. Japanese corporate superiority complex will still prevail though and cause frictions. They will likely be involved in medical applications for their technology too and could begin to depart from gaming to other technology sectors.

 

- Cloud computing will improve and become more common place. Always online will become even more common as Internet connections get faster and cheaper. It will also have more impact on mobile gaming as 4G connections (probably 6G by then) get better and signal coverage vastly improves.

 

- And last but not least...my most controversial. Google and/or Amazon will release a console of their own with a strong Internet focus and a scary amount of selling power to start worrying and possibly begin crippling competition.

[3s-gtech]

Heavier VR integration. The tech will work with current gen consoles - but not sure they'll have the power to do it justice (considering how they're struggling already). Possible VR bundles at launch, some gimicky games, then the VR goodness from the PC will start to trickle down. That's my prediction anyway.

[gtg93]

One of the main features will no doubt be media centre type capability - it's already kind of gone that way with the 360/PS3 & X-ONE/PS4.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if, as discussed, they didn't attempt to put some sort of online DRM gaming thing in there to TRY and stop piracy, before failing miserably and having to patch and it to remove it.

Edited June 18, 2014 by gtg93

[Grey-gear]

Taking about amazon, they are expected to lunch a 3D smartphone.

 

Amazon's 3D smartphone launches today - here's what we know so far - Gadgets and Tech - Life & Style - The Independent

[mikeyd101]

I agree more central processing and streaming like steam streaming and nvidia shield. Probably apps for next gen tablets to stream/gaming to also being able to stream directly to smart tvs, I'm sure were have to put up with multi different network stream standards (aka VHS / Betamax all over again).

 

hopefully things like oculus rift / vr glasses will be combined with the new streaming technology, not sure it will happen for a few console generations tho.

 

I think we'll also see a emergence of newer 3d tech like real time raytracing, voxel and the move towards photorealistic 3d environments.

 

I also think were see more squeeze from the communication companies on the content providers, which is starting to bubble big time in USA.

[tmcd35]

I agree more central processing and streaming like steam streaming and nvidia shield.[/Quote]

 

Streaming is an interesting one. Witch's discussion on Terminal Server video editing is kind of relevant here. Cost of central GPU power vs distributed? Don't forget the PS Now is limited to 720p30. Not sure what OnLives display runs at. And you need to scale it up to millions of active users world wide. And factor in the probable rise of 4K.

 

hopefully things like oculus rift / vr glasses will be combined with the new streaming technology, not sure it will happen for a few console generations tho.

VR headsets have certain fundamental limitations that will stop them from becoming main stream. 3D TV's would have taken off better if wearing glasses wasn't an issue. There's an old joke about a mother walking in on a son in the middle of a 'personal activity' that highlights the problem - but its NSFW

 

- And last but not least...my most controversial. Google and/or Amazon will release a console of their own with a strong Internet focus and a scary amount of selling power to start worrying and possibly begin crippling competition.

 

I'm surprised Apple haven't made greater leverage out of AppleTV to be honest. Can't see Amazon making that mistake. Hell, they bundle a controller with FireTV!

Edited June 18, 2014 by tmcd35

[LincolnE]

You guys do realise that at the end of the day, Sony/Microsoft make very little from actual hardware sales, right? (At times taking a huge loss per machine sold). Most of the income is from selling games, (I believe they take a 20-25% cut as a hardware vender). It's one of the same reasons why Sony stopped allowing linux to be installed on the old PS3, you had people using them as home computers or buying thousands for a server cluster.

This is the reason why I can see them keeping onto the current generation for a decent chunk of time. As the hardware gets older, all the various components drop in price to make and as such the machines themselves get cheaper and cheaper.

 

Microsoft pockets a HUGE '$28' on an Xbox One: But NOT REALLY