Ditto

It is better than the potential 100,000 positive test results being predicted just 2 - 3 weeks ago. The peak was just short of 50k per day just under 2 weeks ago. A word of caution though. The rate of drop has slowed sharply over the last few days, and it wouldn't surprise me to see it rise again within a week. There seemed to be a strong opinion that August would see a peak, although with uncertainty as to when. Within a couple of weeks we will will be around 90% of adults vaccinated and 70% fully vaccinated, even allowing for 2 weeks post second jab. I would expect within the next 6 months there will be a better understanding of length of immunity, but the fact we will see the first booster jabs in about a month I think is indicative.

Covid app tweaked to reduce number pinged https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58062180 Whether that's a good thing, or bad, is going to be a matter of personal opinion.

That's a relief! It would be wonderful if the world population was vaccinated within a year, but I fear distribution won't be that even.

37 million a day! In 304 days, all adults would have had 200 jabs each. Welcome to the pin cushion club everyone!

I did the Ginger cake soon after you posted - it disappeared quick! Perhaps I'll redo as a pudding in the next week or two and let you know how well it pairs with the sorbet.

My mum has a plum tree (opal variety) and this year has a bumper crop. I have a Plum sorbet that is simple yet stunningly wonderful. Ingredients are: 750g plums 250g caster sugar 600ml water 1 cinnamon stick (I used Cassia Bark this year at it was good value in Sainsburys!) Strip of lemon rind Roast the halved and de-stoned plum for 40 mins at 200C or 180C Fan for a little less time. Over a low heat, dissolve the caster sugar in the water along with the lemon rind and cinnamon stick. Then cook at medium heat for 20 minutes until slightly syrupy. Add the cooked plums discarding lemon rind and cinnamon. Cook for a further 10 minutes. Let the mixture cool a bit then purée. I let it cool then put in fridge overnight. Pour mixture in to ice-cream maker and mix until ready - goes a super lighter colour. If you don't have an ice-cream maker, 3 hours in freezer until just frozen, take out and give it a mash/churning with a fork, then freeze for a further 3 hours. Spoon in to an old ice-cream tub and pop into a freezer until ready. When serving, leave it out of freezer for 5-10 minutes to soften a little. A quarter or two of fresh plum and a sprig of mint gives it a bit if class. Here are some photos. Isn't the colour of the final product just amazing!

Cases by date reported 7-day case rates by specimen date Percentage change in recent 7-day case rates by specimen date

This is wrong on almost ever level. Would love someone to raise this with governors and head, or even report to Ofsted. This is a massive failure and the responsibility may well sit with the Academy trust. It is a waste of public money, but more importantly the kids are missing out on the chance of a better education. It's one of the few things that actually makes me quite angry.

A couple of interesting recent articles - https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-uk-to-give-kenya-more-than-800-000-doses-of-oxford-astrazeneca-coronavirus-vaccine-12366110 - the key difference with this is direct contribution of vaccines outside of the Covax scheme - it's a start! https://inews.co.uk/news/health/astrazeneca-vaccine-blood-clot-risk-pfizer-covid-jab-study-1127179 - some new research around blood clotting. In a nutshell, this study suggests AZ is no more risky than Pfizer for causing clots, and getting Covid is a higher risk for clotting than either vaccine.

Gaol...

Mrs Dittto also got pinged today - short isolation and free again by Saturday, so very late notice. We suspect it was as a result of the phone in a locker for 90 minutes whilst having surfing lesson!

If there is ever an award for pedantry, I'd like to nominate this post - absolute gold! Must also be the first time @mikeprice has defended a PE teacher

I think @paulkerton summarises the situation well. I would also add that ONS random sampling data is one to watch for another piece to the puzzle. The Zoe observation is interesting and it's fantastic that that is another viewpoint. Overall, even with the possibility of reduced testing levels for dubious reasons, I don't think anyone really expected to see such a sudden drop in Gov published case numbers. It appears to be unexpected to them too and I think the cautious approach is wise, as it's clear you give this virus an inch and it'll take a mile.

Kestrel chicks lucky escape! https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-57992207 Reminded me of reading about Kes as part of the English curriculum many, many moons ago!

I agree school based infections will have a significant impact. I understand reinfection remains relatively rare, but still limited data. Delta is suspected to be more likely to lead to reinfection though, so that could change. If antibodies wane, whether via vaccine or infection, it could change again in time.

Suggestion that Scotland's early exit led to the figures dropping https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/homenews/19468102.covid-scotlands-early-euro-2020-exit-behind-new-drop-cases-expert-claims/ - I suspect it's just an English way of having a dig!

With football, I expect the next week or so will be key. We also had Wimbledon of course. Testing has been relatively stable throughout July at about a million a day. Turning the app off is a concern and could have an impact - it would be useful to know latest usage figures. There was an article in the Sunday Times a couple of weeks ago that indicated usage was at an all time high, but school holidays have started everywhere now AFAIK, so maybe that's changed? I wouldn't call you pessimistic though, just wisely cautious !

Looking weekly, day by day, the case rate has dropped for 3 days on the trot. Too early to say the latest wave is turning, but I don't think anyone suggested the turning point would be in July? I know some commentators still expect a further uplift, but we'll have to wait and see. 1st jab rates continue to decline, but 2nd vaccination dose rate holding steady. Hospital numbers and deaths still increasing, but reflects expectations based on earlier cases.

Tent trumped! We stayed at 'The camp' near Bristol at the inland surfing place Wed/Thurs. Stunning weather and cooled nicely overnight.

Away for a couple of days and took a bike ride around Avonmouth area. Came across this which made the trail appear much more dangerous than it was. I couldn't see any water or electrical cables in any direction?!

Three weeks is interesting. I believe most of the early trials were based on this, but I thought opinion had moved to a bigger gap. Still, two jabs is better than one! Or none!

It's fascinating how we all have such different feelings on vaccination dates. My mum, over 80, had Pfizer in December and 2nd jab 3 weeks later in January. Six months later, I now worry a little about waning protection. There isn't a lot of data on this topic but some of it isn't great reading. This wretched virus has ways to stress us all out in so many ways.

Thanks. I did listen to the full audio. I have to say it was rather 'primary school teacher' in its presentation style, but overall seemed balanced. What really surprised me is that in the first few minutes the statement that unlocking now was probably better than later, acknowledging that an exit wave is inevitable. There was no reference to research articles to back the views expressed, however, they all seemed to be bona-fide commentators. There is one other statistical measure I did struggle with... it was the lack of a correlation between the data you posted and the perception I got from the soundbites. To my surprise, I came with feeling of being more reassured than I did before I listened to it. Look, I don't want to continually shoot down every one of your Covid data posts and will try to back away unless I feel very strongly. I would implore everyone who has an interest to listen to the sound cast and post their own feelings to broaden the discussion and take on other perceptions. It's half an hour, but I think well worth the time.

Some interesting data points here. Would you be so kind to link to the resource as I'm interested in reading those. In particular to the: 70% of 18-24 year olds want the vaccine Vaccine shortage 7-17% long covid Thanks.

We dream of 4! Good luck with the vaccine - do you know which one it is?