Ditto

I think the per capita is more informative. The difference to USA is 0.5%! No account of how it's measured, demographics or population health - overweightness and obesity is a very significant factor in Covid infection outcomes. What is interesting is how similar the per capita numbers are between UK, USA, much of Europe and South America more informative - Tot Cases/1M pop: 39th Not sure what this tells us. With the data you present, it looks convincing 'we're doing terribly'. If we take vaccination figures for countries with a population over 30 million , we are are second on partial vaccination and first on fully vaccinated so it could be stated 'we're doing amazingly'. Neither is true of course. (Note, you can select a lower number than 30m, but it doesn't change things much; including Israel would bump us to 2nd on fully vaccinated). For the record rhetorically, do I personally think we should be opening up as much as we are? No, but I would try hard not to be so selective with data to warp my viewpoint on to others.

Do the case numbers take in to account the level of testing in each country? Is this table a total or per 100,000 of population? Do UK death figures show us as number 1 also? On deaths, let me save everyone the trouble - UK was listed 35th, but it's an absolute figure and not per 100,000 and I expect there are significant differences in how the figures are compiled across the countries. I'll say it again, I am unsettled with the explosion of cases in the UK and what impact that will have on people's lives, but our profile is very different to the vast majority of the other countries in that dataset. Pulling out 1 statistic to show UK as the worst in the world is not good use of data. For those interested, the interactive chart allows you to sort by per 1million of population, both for active cases and deaths, as well as 'serious/critical'. I'd recommend reviewing those if you want a fuller picture of the current state of affairs.

Seems sensible and good to hear they have reacted to staff concerns. With the current weather, you would have thought something outside would have been better received.

My primary governance school was attributing it's no-cases and or bubble closures to date to rigorously following guidance throughout, but I never thought it was that simple. Whilst I'm confident all the steps taken were as good as they could, this Delta variant is so transmittable, it has changed the landscape as we can all see in daily figures. Over the weekend, 3 year classes closed. That's 20% off school in one fell swoop. I really feel for the pupils and staff, especially the transitioning Yr6. This isn't they way they would want the final few days of term to end. I'm so much hoping from next September wave 3 will be over and we can all make a big step nearer to what we regard as normality.

Well, non-politically of course, I guess they made the right decision albeit somewhat late! You do have to wonder if an advisor thought it would be OK with the original announcement - if so, I suspect their skills would be better employed elsewhere!

I had Cyber Essentials in mind when I replied, but also doesn't NCSC suggest the same? I've yet to get my charity to pursue CE, but I am shifting mindsets bit by bit.

There's still plenty out there! Unfortunately they tend to stand out more than the sensible majority.

BBC are reporting from the just published ONS report at https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthandwellbeing/bulletins/coronavirusandthesocialimpactsongreatbritain/16july2021. Some interesting data on mask wearing, which considering the cultural shift since they were first introduced is going to be very interesting to social scientists in the future. It suggests the vast majority of 'people' are not 'idiots' and show a lot of concern about the next phase. In spite of the legal stance changing, many of us, including me, are going to keep wearing masks for quite some time more.

My sons year group has had a positive test, but so far he is not deemed to be a close contact. 3 school days left, but with a couple nights away booked later next week, it's a nervous time hoping there isn't a call for him to isolate.

Two thirds of UK adults have now had two doses, one of the highest rates in the world at this point. Over 87% have had first. Vaccine rates are dropping though, so working through the remainder is going to require even more effort and energy.

I'll leave others to draw there own conclusions, I've said all I feel I need to at this point.

I know, I was suggesting you should. When you are suggesting over 100,00 further deaths (presumably based on current actions), I suggest the fullest picture should be considered I don't accept the 2% rate. Early on the rate was between 1.5 and 2%, but that was a fully unvaccinated population. The population left unvaccinated now is very different to the profile at the start because the vaccine focussed on the 90+% that were at higher risk. Halving the number for forward projection has no scientific basis. For a clearer understanding of Covid related death at present, have a look at https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19latestinsights/deaths. The first visualisation show how much things have changed since the outbreak started. 'Assuming' is unscientific. Immuno-compromised are at greater risk, the data is clear. You need accurate data of how many have been vaccinated or not to make a good projection. Just no! Of the 33 million you quote at the outset, about 12 million are under 18 - they have not 'chosen' not to be vaccinated. Of the remaining 21 million, many have had a first dose, others both but may not yet be at the highest level or protection. Although the rate of vaccinating is falling, there are still over 1/4 million doses being given a day. Look, I'm not looking forward to the next few weeks/months seeing increasing cases, hospitalisations, deaths, long Covid suffering, but as I've indicated before, I don't buy in to taking the most pessimistic outlook. Well used data can tell us facts, often retrospectively with accuracy. It can also be used for projecting forwards, but that's much harder and needs to be done carefully to be of value.

Sorry to hear this. I've just heard about 'several' cases at my boys school in year 8 (they're Y7 and Y8) plus a Y10 teacher possibly with Covid. I fear a lot of early summer holiday's will scuppered due to the current rates of transmission in schools. I've also heard anecdotally that some are uninstalling the NHS app and others pulling their kids from school before the end of term. The former is just not right, but I can sympathise with the latter decision.

I'm not sure the assumed death rates you use of 10%, 1% and 0.1% are reasonable in the current circumstances - do you have a source? We also need to consider the unvaccinated under 18's, of which there are about 12 million. However, to avoid making things look even more grim than they are, the absolute risk of death due to covid for children (at least according to one piece of research), is about 0.0002%, or 2 in a million (source https://www.ucl.ac.uk/news/2021/jul/covid-19-risks-severe-illness-children-shown-be-very-low). Don't get me wrong, I'm unnerved but the full unlocking and it feels unnecessarily risky, but I accept I could be wrong. Using figures that paint the picture as accurately as possible is my preference, and avoid 'assumed' numbers.

Very much south of the river it turns out. Taken just outside Guildford before the climb up the A31 (Hogs Back). A bonus slightly later photo. In anticipating of a follow up question, the following has been stated: "850mm"

Might be showing my age here, but could you let me know what 'ROT' is an acronym for - thanks!

No prizes, but you may well be right. I'll check and let you know.

Not mine, but a photographer friend from the tennis club who will do early morning stints for a special photo. This is a recent example. I can get a hi-res if anyone is interested.

It's a good point. I have a thread asking about 4G for home workers with weak internet access. I have said VDI should be considered. Do you know what level of internet speed would be sufficient for VDI - I'm assuming it's minimal.

I've posted a 14 day average vaccination rate a few times, so here is an update - the level is at a low point and behind the numbers, first jabs have dropped significantly. Clearly, it's going to be a tough job pushing towards 95%+ - a level that is need for the highly infections disease measles, the vaccine which is thought to give at least 20 years protection. There are some that now think due to variants and potentially short lived protection, true herd immunity is unachievable.

I, like many here, am concerned about the explosion in cases and the consequences that brings and a less complete unlocking would seem to fit a more 'cautious' approach. However, the data you quote is a skewed presentation of where we are at. None of it is on a standalone basis incorrect, but it doesn't reflect the vaccine programme impact, the relative level of serious illness and death, the fact that many of those infected now are younger and at considerably lower risk. Sometimes quoting percentages is better replaced with absolute values, especially when the absolutes are low as in the case of deaths. Perhaps you could present hospital admissions, hospital patient numbers, numbers on mechanical ventilation comparative to case numbers for each of the three waves, both in absolute numbers and percentages. Of course, it'll take a bit of extra work on case number you'll need to take account that levels of testing varies of that time, but there will be data for approximate expected levels of infection.

Used both too and I agree. Biggest win was teachers were on-board very quickly with Workspace. I believe a well setup Sharepoint can be very good, but in my experience it's rarely well set up. I'[m just pleased we have a choice and neither are awful.

I have wondered on this point too. Having vaccinated the majority of those in high risk of death, the now opening now versus later (winter), it does seem to be inevitable amongst the young that herd immunity has been modelled. You often see the figures for antibodies being quoted now qualified with 'from vaccines and infection'. BBC quoted Wales at 91.8% of adults yesterday and two thirds of under 25's having antibodies. I don't hear anyone suggesting herd immunity being achieved yet, but you have to wonder. I did hear from a virologist a couple of days ago, the level needed to achieve herd immunity is very high when the R rate is high, so I think we are looking at 90+% of all population with Delta.

So to conclude, there are a number of different factors such as R0 rate, mortality rates and many other considerations that need taking on board to guide the approach. I'm not saying the current proposals are right, but I am saying you can't bring it down to binary decision making. On vaccines, we can all see the numbers getting them daily is slowing down - it's still not clear to me why. For over 18's, I've seen nothing other than statements to 'get the jab' as soon as you are invited. Making them compulsory, unless there is a medical reason for not doing so, would be hugely controversial. I think describing people as lazy for not getting a jab is a little unfair.

I've just been notified that there is a change.org petition going that asks for mask wearing in shops to remain requirement. I think the public are more willing to continue with some restrictions (or strong advisory guidance) than some may anticipate, especially with such rapidly increasing cases. I'm not in favour of unnecessary legal restrictions, especially when it's so subjectively enforced, but after all this time, I guess many of us have come to terms things like wearing masks.