Will consoles die in 5 - 10 years?

[Michael]

I came across this article. May be of interesting discussion -

 

Former Vice President of Xbox Europe Sandy Duncan has cast his doubts on the long term future of the console market, claiming consoles as we know them will die out with a decade.

 

Speaking in an interview, he said: "There is a definite convergence of other devices, such as set top boxes. There's hardly any technology difference between some hard disc video recorders and an Xbox 360, for example.

 

"In fact in 5 to 10 years I don't think you'll have any box at all under your TV, most of this stuff will be virtualized as web services by your content provider".

 

My personal opinion is I think Sandy Duncan is wrong. Even though web services are becoming more common, you still need a device to receive the web service in some form, be it portable or not. Consoles are becoming more and more like PCs offering other tools/facilities, all in one stylish unit under your TV set.

[CyberNerd]

Sounds like MS are just pissed because they failed to predict the viability of a future technology again (blueray). Maybe MS are backtracking, DX10 seems to be going nowhere -fast. I always thought that there would be a market for consoles because it helps restrict piracy, thats why this gen of consoles were developed, I guess pay-per use may change this.

[Michael]

And as well as technology advances, a friend of mine has (or should I say had) an XBOX 360. We experienced the red ring of death first hand! He was extremely cheesed off to say the least and reacted very anti Microsoft. I don't blame him to be honest!

 

I think there will always be a market for consoles in the near future, as it is (in my opinion) a true plug 'n play experience. No drivers, no special software, just switch on and you're there. Ready to surf or play a game. PCs still complicate the simplest of tasks.

[CyberNerd]

He was extremely cheesed off to say the least and reacted very anti Microsoft.

What astonished me was the amount of pro-MS posts on this forum about similar experiences with 'RROD' to the effect of how great MS were by replacing the product ! I guess ICT techs get accustomed to it.

 

 

a true plug 'n play experience. No drivers, no special software, just switch on and you're there. Ready to surf or play a game.

 

That sounds like an Open Standards talk to me !

[torledo]

Sounds like MS are just pissed because they failed to predict the viability of a future technology again (blueray). Maybe MS are backtracking, DX10 seems to be going nowhere -fast. I always thought that there would be a market for consoles because it helps restrict piracy, thats why this gen of consoles were developed, I guess pay-per use may change this.

if anything bluray is the technology going nowhere...or rather the

technology nobody really cares much for.

 

To be fair to ms they were hedging their bets somewhat with the whole format war by not including a player from either ina x360 revision

 

Ms really have they're eyes on another prize and this is where

i disagree with michael..

 

Ms have done very well in pushing their iptv platform as a delivery

platform for triple play services provided by cable companies

 

These companies and the incumbet telco providers are building

out they're core networks to deliver on demand video, with MS technology as key in the application layer.

 

MS won't need to mess around selling black boxes, they're presence can be purely in the software domain.

 

Video as a service is a dead cert, and the idea of the ip enabled home is already taking hold. Yes, you'll still need a box of some sort but that'll be the multiservice modem/router. Every other application can be hosted....voice, video, digital recording, file storage even video gaming. 5-10 years from now the latest displays will also be ip enabled able to present video games to the home user. All the user would need would be wireless controllers or whatever the human computer interaction device of choice will be for gameplay. With the games running on centralized servers. The content delivery networks won't be the problem, the speed at which FTTx can be delivered on a national scale will be the key determiner of whether this idea can truly succeed.

Edited March 30, 2008 by torledo

[Michael]

What astonished me was the amount of pro-MS posts on this forum about similar experiences with 'RROD' to the effect of how great MS were by replacing the product ! I guess ICT techs get accustomed to it.

 

Standing back and thinking about it, I find it amusing that Microsoft built in the RROD feature altogether. When my mate turns his console on, it's the only thing that works now!

 

That sounds like an Open Standards talk to me !

 

Yes you're right, but I think that's the way it should be. Us IT specialists are fine, but I feel there are many people whereby this approach would suit really well. Especially the elderly or people with special needs (for example).

 

if anything bluray is the technology going nowhere...or rather the

technology nobody really cares much for.

 

I disagree it's going no where. It's made progress killing off HD-DVD, but the bigger competition (at the moment) is still DVD. In years to come however, DVD will eventually be dropped, however I don't think Blu-ray will have the market to itself. Web services, IPTV or Video on Demand (whatever you want to call it) will also be on the table. I love the competition. It'll drive prices down and that's great for the consumer

 

As for games running centrally, I am not so sure about that. The PS3 especially is a very impressive console (technically) and is the most powerful out of this generation; however, even with some form of virtualisation to have (for example) the power of 1,000 PS3s in one box/server, I don't know how realistic that really is. I think it would require some new revolutionary design!

[tech_guy]

In five years time Microsoft will be releasing the Xbox Edge....

 

;-)

[CyberNerd]

In five years time Microsoft will be releasing the Xbox Edge....

 

;-)

 

oh crap, I just cum in my pants.

[elsiegee40]

I think our careers have made us justly cynical...

 

we subscribe to the "if ain't broke, don't fix it" school and know better than to leap onto the latest technological bandwagon until enough time has passed to see if it actually works.

 

Like many I'll be waiting to see what happens...

[localzuk]

It all depends on network speeds really. Will the internet be sufficiently robust to support this high bandwidth concept? It seems that our internet connections are increasing in speed but the bandwidth required is increasing also.

 

The other issue is whether people will be happy not owning something physical.

[torledo]

Anyone who thinks that physical media will die out in 5-10 years is in the wrong job.

 

Duncan also seems to think that we'll all go out and buy new TVs that accept these new formats. I certainly won't. I'll happily use my bog standard analogue CRT with xbox media centre until it fails.

 

People are replacing they're CRT's with LCD's, people are upgrading to HD ready displays....and no doubt people will upgrade to the next LED technology or to a must have killer app. That's the way things are....technology doesn't stagnate and people continue to talk with their wallets. As you said eventually you'll be forced to upgrade when something breaks.

 

The main purpose of removable media is to have something that is tranferrable, something you own, and something for backup and reliability.

 

I'd trust massively scalable storage and backup networks of major service providers over a disc that can be scratched or lost or a backup copy that can be corrupted or stolen if on a home computer. As for ownership, we're already using the concept of owning something without having the physical media. And for easily transferable, the content you own can be accessed from anywhere with an internet connection. And when sufficient numbers of the new format TV displays are available the need for black boxes under the TV will no longer be necessary. There are a number of factors that will determine whether that happens in 10 or 15 years from now if ever, but it's not a bad prediction.

[flyinghaggis]

The way things are going just now with PC gaming (DRM, net based authorization when you run a program, limited number of installs, cost of hardware, compatability issues, lack of any exclusive software) I think it's more likely that the PC will die off as a gaming platform in the next 5-10 years!

[EduTech]

It is true, Microsoft are trying to do it so you dont have to go to a shop and buy a physical game you can get it all from home. as you all said by doing that you need to have certain things to be much much better before that can work fully.

 

They have started of by making old games available to download, Full Fetured HD movies etc. so there making a move.

 

and in years to come they will be putting the xbox 360 games online so you can just download them and buy them using MS Points. obviously be allot more then just a few points.

 

But thats the way there are looking to go, but no need to worry its going to be a good few years yet.

 

I have a PS3 and i only use it for the Blueray tbh.. must be me but i cant see much differant from HD and Blue Ray..

 

James

[ninjabeaver]

claiming consoles as we know them will die out with a decade.

 

This is the section to focus on. Its such a massive generalisation. He's talking that in 10 years time that consoles will have evolved and current ones will be car boot pickups.. This is so true, but so will have TV's, Computers, Cars etc. I'd love to see an all in one unit of console, computer, TV built into a little tiny projector that looks like an ice cube and projects an image in 3D above it.

 

I do believe that everything will be pumped to us down whatever they call telephone lines in 10 years time.

 

Bournemouth is already starting to get the 100mbit cabling installed, and it wont be long before everything is connected. Even now, in the City of Norwich near me wireless floods the city.

 

In 10 years the possibilities are enormous.

[Trapper]

I think they will thrive, but perhaps become more a Media Centre PC. Gaming, multimedia, internet in one box.

 

I've never been a fan of consoles, I find the controllers to insensitive compared to a keyboard and mouse.

 

PCs are still IMHO the best gaming platforms for control and graphics.

[SYNACK]

I disagree it's going no where. It's made progress killing off HD-DVD, but the bigger competition (at the moment) is still DVD. In years to come however, DVD will eventually be dropped, however I don't think Blu-ray will have the market to itself. Web services, IPTV or Video on Demand (whatever you want to call it) will also be on the table. I love the competition. It'll drive prices down and that's great for the consumer

 

Sony was able to make Blueray the standard by buying off the main manufacturer of HD-DVD with a generous offer of a large amount of cash. HD-DVD was slowly dropping away but it was Sony's behind the scenes dealing that finally sent it on its way. After all their whole corporate strategy was pinned to blueray so they really couldn't loose this one without taking a massive hit. That and they could not push their latest root-kits to the unsuspecting public

 

MS were not really fully invested in HD-DVD sure they were part of the group pushing for it but it seemed they were more in it to obstruct Sony. They did not include it in their 360 consoles and so the overall hit that they took was minimal.

 

 

As for games running centrally, I am not so sure about that. The PS3 especially is a very impressive console (technically) and is the most powerful out of this generation; however, even with some form of virtualisation to have (for example) the power of 1,000 PS3s in one box/server, I don't know how realistic that really is. I think it would require some new revolutionary design!

 

Next generation datacentres stacked high with the latest processors and graphics processors should be able to accomplish this in the near future. The two limiting factors in this case are both to do with the network used to distribute it.

 

The problems are two fold, To transmit a comparable full HD video signal you need round 720 Mbit/s using MPEG4 so each home using this would need at least a 1gbit link to the datacentre to provide good quality.

 

The other more troubling problem is one of latency, due to the way current networks work the real time nature of games does not allow for streaming of files as the lag would be unacceptable. The only way around this is going to be by developing and using new end to end fibre transport, routing and switching that does not require the signal to be converted to electricity at any point along the way. This stuff is on the way but the solely light based logic components that are needed are still in the early stages of development and are no where near being commercialized.

 

 

 

In response to the original post I think that consoles will defiantly still be around in 10-15 years but as Trapper above says they will be far more integrated with other services. I think that the computer in it current form is more likely to be pushed into the console as an integrated unit for most homes that do not require all of the features of a pc but still need web access and other basic services.

Edited May 18, 2008 by SYNACK

[mac_shinobi]

iTunes already do the download service for movies, tv series, music etc.

 

Once you have downloaded it you can make upto 5 copys of it on external hard drives or burn it to a dvd or whatever.

 

you have a logon account that you register with iTunes that is used to verify you and it connects to there servers to check you are you. So if you had to wipe your machine and start again all you would have to do is to update os x and any software ( mainly iTunes ) and copy your data to the relevant location(s) and re launch iTunes, sign back in and it recognises who you are and allows you to carry on

 

Didn't read all the posts so may of missed someone posting something similiar, just thought id throw this in.

 

At the min I currently have a CRT and with the technology going at the pace it is and with my CRT working I think I will wait until it blows up or dies on me until I get anything newer that way giving me plenty of time ( at least thats the idea ) to save up enough money to get a new telly whether it be HD TV or a hd compatable projector or whatever.

 

With regards to streaming video / games or whatever into someones house ( and the issue that someone else posted prior with regards to how would they get enough cpu power etc to allow thousands if not more people play games, videos etc )

 

I think they will make something similiar to the mac mini or a pc version of it that is completely speced out with a decent graphics card, ram etc etc that will sit underneath your telly somewhere that will be a media centre pc that connects to your tv ( via s video for older tellys ) or hdmi to hd tv's along with the relevant audio outputs and then all the consumer would have to do is subscribe to a media service that provides all the movie downloads, game downloads etc ( similiar to what lovefilim.com are doing ) and the movies would be downloaded directly to that pc provided your internet connection was sufficient.

 

As far as I am aware virgin media are upgrading and trialling 50mb if not more.

 

With regards to blu ray being dead - if you are supposed to have all this backend technology ie a hd tv and they are going to stream the movies ( in supposed hd format ) then if they are going to allow you to make a backup then where or how would you make that backup copy of your movie ?

 

If you had to wipe your windows installation would they give you a service that listed all your purchases with a download link next to each so you could always download a copy of it regardless ?

 

Also if it is in hd format ( what size of file(s) would you have to download to get that hd quality ) ?

 

I mean dvd's are in the 4 gb region and blu ray and hd dvds are even more then that.

 

I know compression is good but if you compress a hd movie then is it really HD ?

 

sorry synack didnt see your post

Edited May 18, 2008 by gecko

[SYNACK]

If you had to wipe your windows installation would they give you a service that listed all your purchases with a download link next to each so you could always download a copy of it regardless ?

 

As we are looking at the integrated console route there would be very little need to reinstall it unless the hard drive was busted. As the software is set up more as an appliance it should remain stable, you don't usually have to reinstall a playstation or xbox.

 

If the software as a service and persistent network model was being followed then you would simply replace the hard drive, connect to the persistent network using the onboard firmware, enter your account details and it would boot remotely from the network and download the necessary client side software to the hard drive including the pointers to your purchased content.

[torledo]

@synack - i remember my former ccna instructor telling us about light based logic in computers 4 years ago, if it's still in eary stages of development as it was then it's pie in the sky stuff really isn't it ?

 

Also, i'm not sure whether it's even needed for gaming farms...massively scalabe parallel architecture using pizza boxes would do the trick i would have thought.

 

i think the point about end-end fibre in the network is going to be vital...i mentioned about fttx previousy and that's where the issue is going to be. Core networks of the tier-2's have virtually unlimited bandwidth and and are extremely reliabe with sub-second failover aswell as redundant connections into the internet backbone, they're data centers and networks won't have a problem scaling to the demand or implementing QoS end-to-end...it's the edge where the problem lies getting fiber to homes and premises is such a massive undertaking it could well take 20 years if they decided to start on the project soon, which they're not. It'll probably be left up to the far eastern countries who have that fiber deployment to premise to push ahead with video as a service while we languish in the slow lane with ADSL.

[torledo]

@gecko - you make a good point about backing up or having physical media, but i think you have to imagine it as the ISP backing up the movies, games, on-demandtv available to you. You'd be covered in the unlikely event it was lost or unrecoverable.

 

And imagine each home having a multservice router with a 250gb hard disk that can store recorded content for local use aswell as do the other stuff like acting as an edge router with proxy, web filter etc. It's not quite SaaS but it is something that could replace the pvr, the blu-ray player an the dsl modem. The device would be remotely managed by the ISP, and t he service itself could eventually come with a three 9's or even a five 9's sla.

 

Cisco bought a company called scientific atlanta which makes stb's and headend equipment for cable network operators, they also have their own substantial router business that sells every conceivable module and interface for internet and wan connectivity....and they own a maker of dvd media players. They have all they need to build an all-in-one, but what they don't have is the middleware business in the core of the network...microsoft dominates that area in cabe tv networks with it's iptv patform which does everything from EPG, billing and no doubt the dreaded DRM (M$ are evil after all) The constituent parts are there to do triple play and there's no reason why gaming cannot be added, but the last mile needs to be upgraded for that to happen.

[SYNACK]

@synack - i remember my former ccna instructor telling us about light based logic in computers 4 years ago, if it's still in eary stages of development as it was then it's pie in the sky stuff really isn't it ?

 

Also, i'm not sure whether it's even needed for gaming farms...massively scalabe parallel architecture using pizza boxes would do the trick i would have thought.

 

They have the basics of the logic down, they have sorted some of the logic gates but it is still something that is on its way, its just still more than a few years away from commercial applications.

 

Without this technology the latency will just be to high for gaming, 50 or 80 milliseconds to a local server is still 1/5th of a second before you get any response from your button press and that is not including processing time by the actual server. Short of having the datacenter just down the road with a single layer of layer3 switching in the way - which will still have a small latency issue - it is just not practical.

 

In my previous post I did agree with you that the actual datacenter component is quite feasible and with the latest midrange line of IBM server shipping with cell processors not very far away from being a possibility.

 

i think the point about end-end fibre in the network is going to be vital...i mentioned about fttx previousy and that's where the issue is going to be. Core networks of the tier-2's have virtually unlimited bandwidth and and are extremely reliabe with sub-second failover aswell as redundant connections into the internet backbone, they're data centers and networks won't have a problem scaling to the demand or implementing QoS end-to-end...it's the edge where the problem lies getting fiber to homes and premises is such a massive undertaking it could well take 20 years if they decided to start on the project soon, which they're not. It'll probably be left up to the far eastern countries who have that fiber deployment to premise to push ahead with video as a service while we languish in the slow lane with ADSL.

 

The core may have large amounts of bandwidth but it is certainly not unlimited, when you start talking about each home using up an entire 1GBit a second for a single gaming console you end up with some pretty big numbers. Say 100,000 games running simultaneously will require 100 petabits of bandwidth which is not trivial, especially when current modern fibre runs at around 14 terabits a second meaning that your would need around 7200 fibre pairs at backbone speed to support just these simultaneous games at the same video quality as current consoles in full HD without requiring heavy processing on the client side.

Edited May 18, 2008 by SYNACK

[localzuk]

I think I am leaning towards believing in the Singularity on all this. Many of Raymond Kurzweil's predictions in 'The Age of Intelligent Machines' from 1990 have come true. I can see everything we use changing dramatically in a couple of decades - including consoles.

 

So I agree with the MS guy here - consoles as we know them will die out. But so will most other computer related tech. He just has the timescale a bit wrong. I'd go with 20 years.

Edited May 18, 2008 by localzuk

[localzuk]

They have the basics of the logic down, they have sorted some of the logic gates but it is still something that is on its way, its just still more than a few years away from commercial applications.

 

I'll try and digg out the stories but there was some news on the subject recently (as in this year) that IBM has made massive progress on the commercialisation of the process.

[torledo]

They have the basics of the logic down, they have sorted some of the logic gates but it is still something that is on its way, its just still more than a few years away from commercial applications.

 

Without this technology the latency will just be to high for gaming, 50 or 80 milliseconds to a local server is still 1/5th of a second before you get any response from your button press and that is not including processing time by the actual server. Short of having the datacenter just down the road with a single layer of layer3 switching in the way - which will still have a small latency issue - it is just not practical.

 

In my previous post I did agree with you that the actual datacenter component is quite feasible and with the latest midrange line of IBM server shipping with cell processors not very far away from being a possibility.

 

 

 

The core may have large amounts of bandwidth but it is certainly not unlimited, when you start talking about each home using up an entire 1GBit a second for a single gaming console you end up with some pretty big numbers. Say 100,000 games running simultaneously will require 100 petabits of bandwidth which is not trivial, especially when current modern fibre runs at around 14 terabits a second meaning that your would need around 7200 fibre pairs at backbone speed to support just these simultaneous games at the same video quality as current consoles in full HD without requiring heavy processing on the client side.

 

That's assuming each home will need or be allocated 1gbps, increments between 10 and 100mbps are more likely and realistic with 100mbps service having having room for expansion for future applicartions.

 

you said yourself HD will be delivered using mpeg4/H.264 which should provide for decent quality 720p video at between 15 and 30mbps for a single stream - the limitations for BT delivering HD services using the fusion product is the copper last mile not they're core networks ...the requirements for gaming i'm not too sure what they would be beyond the HD delivery requirements, but i think the vision of triple play has always voice video data with video being live and on demand tv not gaming. core networks can easily handle Hdtv delivery as part of triple pay service to 100,000 subscribers.

 

As you say gaming is not as forgiving when it comes to latency...infact it's unofrgiving of any distortion or freeze framing of image.

[mac_shinobi]

I think the way things are going with the network situation in terms of getting the relevant speed we need for this to become available it may be worth while seeing what they are doing in japan and possibly Australia with regards to those sorts of services and see how they are doing things.

 

I mean when I went to Australia a couple or more years ago they have totally phased out scart connectors and were already using phono type gold plated conenctors to connect projectors to dvd players and the like.

 

And seeing as we are in the slow lane connectivity wise would be interesting to see if Japan or anywhere else has anything in place like what we are all talking about already in this post and see how they do this ( If at all )