Tesla Model 3

[caffrey]

I thought it was cheaper to build electric cars, no ICE , less parts etc. so why are they more expensive ? Until electric is on parity with ICE even with fuel savings I know what I'll be doing

[Norphy]

A range of factors I would imagine:

 

Economies of scale - a lot more ICE cars are manufactured than electric cars.

Expensive and rare components - batteries that size are expensive and have a lot of expensive minerals in them

Development and continued support costs - Tesla are constantly updating the software on their models and that costs money

 

Price parity with ICE cars will come as production of BEVs increases but we're not there yet.

[caffrey]

It's a shame because the EV market is directly aimed at my purposes but it just works out cheaper for me to still use ICE, shame as I really want to move into EV. Still like you said more manufacturers are releasing new EVs so might force prices down (VW, Honda and Peugeot to name a few)

[crc-ict]

A range of factors I would imagine:

 

Economies of scale - a lot more ICE cars are manufactured than electric cars.

Expensive and rare components - batteries that size are expensive and have a lot of expensive minerals in them

Development and continued support costs - Tesla are constantly updating the software on their models and that costs money

 

Price parity with ICE cars will come as production of BEVs increases but we're not there yet.

 

But will price parity come?

 

Yes, economy of scale will come into play and also the offsetting of R&D costs, but presumably the minerals that are needed for eg the batteries are expensive because they are either scarce or difficult to extract. Because we suddenly need more of them doesn't mean that they become any more plentiful or any easier to extract. And won't there be as much disruptive backlash at additional works to extract these minerals as there is about for example fracking to extract oil?

 

And no-one seems to be thinking about what we will do with all of the batteries that will need responsible disposal at the end of their lives, and also the cars themselves that I fear will become uneconomical to repair at much younger ages than ICE vehicles once the hugely expensive batteries start dying. Are they going to be like old laptops, still functional but tossed onto the scrap heap because they only have ten minutes battery left and no-one wants to pay HP or Dell £75 for a new battery for a 5 year old laptop? If these Tesla's are around £40k new, that means with depreciation they will be worth only around £8,000 at 10 years old - so who is going to pay £15-20k for a new battery for it?

Edited May 1, 2019 by crc-ict

[sted]

But will price parity come?

 

Yes, economy of scale will come into play and also the offsetting of R&D costs, but presumably the minerals that are needed for eg the batteries are expensive because they are either scarce or difficult to extract. Because we suddenly need more of them doesn't mean that they become any more plentiful or any easier to extract. And won't there be as much disruptive backlash at additional works to extract these minerals as there is about for example fracking to extract oil?

 

And no-one seems to be thinking about what we will do with all of the batteries that will need responsible disposal at the end of their lives, and also the cars themselves that I fear will become uneconomical to repair at much younger ages than ICE vehicles once the hugely expensive batteries start dying. Are they going to be like old laptops, still functional but tossed onto the scrap heap because they only have ten minutes battery left and no-one wants to pay HP or Dell £75 for a new battery for a 5 year old laptop? If these Tesla's are around £40k new, that means with depreciation they will be worth only around £8,000 at 10 years old - so who is going to pay £15-20k for a new battery for it?

 

with tesla as well will the company be around in 10 years time say? i can honestly see it being run into the ground with bright ideas like the robot assembly line that never worked then ford/gm/toyota etc buying them or even someone just buying the ip/tech.

[casey]

Are they going to be like old laptops, still functional but tossed onto the scrap heap because they only have ten minutes battery left and no-one wants to pay HP or Dell £75 for a new battery for a 5 year old laptop? If these Tesla's are around £40k new, that means with depreciation they will be worth only around £8,000 at 10 years old - so who is going to pay £15-20k for a new battery for it?

 

There is a Tesla taxi which runs between Las Vegas and Los Angeles which has done over 400,000 miles on the original battery, more than enough for most use cases.

 

Musk has recently Tweeted that in the next 2 years they will be producing battery packs that will be good for 1,000,000 miles.

 

In the event that there are problems with the battery it's highly unlikely a new one would cost anything like you are saying in 10 years. The 'tipping point' $100 per kWh battery is very close now so the long range Model 3 battery pack would currently only cost about $8000 to $9000 (Approx 75kWh) and if individual cells/modules fail they can be replaced without buying a whole new battery.

 

Edit: apologies, it would appear that had its high voltage battery replaced twice under warranty at 194,000 and 324,000 miles. It's currently done about 450,000 miles.

Still not bad for a car that's been hammered for nearly 5 years

Edited May 1, 2019 by casey

[sted]

There is a Tesla taxi which runs between Las Vegas and Los Angeles which has done over 400,000 miles on the original battery, more than enough for most use cases.

 

Musk has recently Tweeted that in the next 2 years they will be producing battery packs that will be good for 1,000,000 miles.

 

In the event that there are problems with the battery it's highly unlikely a new one would cost anything like you are saying in 10 years. The 'tipping point' $100 per kWh battery is very close now so the long range Model 3 battery pack would currently only cost about $8000 to $9000 (Approx 75kWh) and if individual cells/modules fail they can be replaced without buying a whole new battery.

 

but that may be an ideal use case for that battery. if you do 30 miles a day and charge it over night that might kill the battery faster than a full drain and charge 1 data point is not enough to base a case on

[casey]

but that may be an ideal use case for that battery. if you do 30 miles a day and charge it over night that might kill the battery faster than a full drain and charge 1 data point is not enough to base a case on

 

Why would you drive 30 miles and then charge up again overnight? I charged my car last Saturday afternoon, I've done about 80 miles and the range this morning was approx. 90 miles.

 

If I did drive 30 miles in a day it would take less than an hour the get it back to 100% on my home charger, which is only a 7kW charger.

 

The Model S in the case I quoted is driven hard in very hot conditions and always Supercharged, both things which apparently are particularly bad for batteries.

[Andrew_C]

I thought it was cheaper to build electric cars, no ICE , less parts etc. so why are they more expensive ? Until electric is on parity with ICE even with fuel savings I know what I'll be doing

More expensive than what? Where else will £38k get a car with that level of performance?

 

 

(Annoying thing for the day - no way can I afford one!)

[jmak]

There's no money in making and selling cars. Most companies that manufacture cars are actually finance houses that happen to make the product used to secure the loan.

[sted]

Why would you drive 30 miles and then charge up again overnight? I charged my car last Saturday afternoon, I've done about 80 miles and the range this morning was approx. 90 miles.

 

If I did drive 30 miles in a day it would take less than an hour the get it back to 100% on my home charger, which is only a 7kW charger.

 

The Model S in the case I quoted is driven hard in very hot conditions and always Supercharged, both things which apparently are particularly bad for batteries.

why do people run laptops on mains all the time and never run on battery?

because they might need the range tomorrow if something crops up and spending a longer time filling the battery in that case when they need to go somewhere is a pain when it could of been topped up while they sleep

[crc-ict]

why do people run laptops on mains all the time and never run on battery?

because they might need the range tomorrow if something crops up and spending a longer time filling the battery in that case when they need to go somewhere is a pain when it could of been topped up while they sleep

 

And that, to me, is why electric cars are not ready to replace ICE yet.

 

I've got my diesel Mondeo sitting outside, with about 150 miles worth of fuel left in it. If I suddenly have a need to drive to, eg Edinburgh right now, I can spend 5 minutes at the fuel station at the bottom of the road and I'm good for the journey. I don't even need to do that because I could also set off immediately, then when I'm ready for a break stop and spend 5 minutes in the services north of London filling up, and be good for fuel to complete my journey.

 

With an electric car, there simply isn't that functionality. Even if I had charged it fully the night before, in the best case scenario I'd be looking at needing at least one 45-60 minute charging stop and in many cases, more or longer stops depending on the car, available chargers etc. I know all about needing rest stops etc, but the whole point of a car is for that to be down to me, to have the flexibility to stop when and for how long I need to, not the car.

 

Although I am a bit of a petrolhead, the techie in me wishes that the electric car was a better competitor. But unfortunately, until its potential capabilities can match what me dinosaur-powered car can do, I'm out.

Edited May 2, 2019 by crc-ict

[casey]

Maybe I'm an edge case, but in 3 years of driving an EV I've never had to 'emergency charge'. I do top up when parked at home also while in the supermarket, in the coffee shop, at a local garden centre and whilst shopping in the town, but only if I need the charge.

 

Another problem is that people seem to equate laptop and phone batteries to EV batteries just because they are lithium ion. Although Tesla used to use laptop cells in the original Roadster, the chemistry and the battery management systems have come a long way since then.

 

My car has a 41kWh battery in it, but thats just what's visible to me, the battery management system reserves some capacity at the 'top' and 'bottom' to protect the battery and stop it going too low or too high a state of charge. Which could cause the life of the battery to shorten.

 

It's obvious you don't think EV's are ready for 'prime time' and you are right, they are not yet the answer for everyone, but for hundreds thousands of people they are an ideal solution and I see more EVs every day in my local area.

 

The EVs are coming, and they are coming quietly, look out.

[casey]

I've got my diesel Mondeo sitting outside, with about 150 miles worth of fuel left in it. If I suddenly have a need to drive to, eg Edinburgh right now, I can spend 5 minutes at the fuel station at the bottom of the road and I'm good for the journey. I don't even need to do that because I could also set off immediately, then when I'm ready for a break stop and spend 5 minutes in the services north of London filling up, and be good for fuel to complete my journey.

 

I must lead a really boring life, I've never had the misfortune to need to drive to the other end of the country in my 40+ years of driving. I realise that families live in a much wider spread of the country than they used too and you might need to visit a sick relative/friend, but this argument has been beaten to death.

 

Last week I drove from Plymouth to Southampton and back in a day. I stopped to charge in Dorchester, my wife and I went to a coffee shop then a very quick visit to a supermarket, by which time almost an hour had passed. On to Southampton, my wife visited her parents, my daughter and I went into Southampton city centre, where I charged at one of the more than 30 charge points there (and for free, but that wasn't the important bit.) Later I picked up my wife and we headed back to Plymouth, we stopped at Exeter services, not specifically to charge but for a comfort break, I did charge but didn't need to, I had the range to get home.

 

I guess I'm just too laid back I could't see the hassle in that journey.

[sted]

I must lead a really boring life, I've never had the misfortune to need to drive to the other end of the country in my 40+ years of driving. I realise that families live in a much wider spread of the country than they used too and you might need to visit a sick relative/friend, but this argument has been beaten to death.

 

Last week I drove from Plymouth to Southampton and back in a day. I stopped to charge in Dorchester, my wife and I went to a coffee shop then a very quick visit to a supermarket, by which time almost an hour had passed. On to Southampton, my wife visited her parents, my daughter and I went into Southampton city centre, where I charged at one of the more than 30 charge points there (and for free, but that wasn't the important bit.) Later I picked up my wife and we headed back to Plymouth, we stopped at Exeter services, not specifically to charge but for a comfort break, I did charge but didn't need to, I had the range to get home.

 

I guess I'm just too laid back I could't see the hassle in that journey.

for me its the stopping for extended periods of time. when i do long distances i just want to get there asap i dont want to stop at all if i cn avoid it and certainly not for longer than a comfort break or time to eat a sarnie. It also depends on where you are going to go to my sisters for instance (leeds - st davids approximately) i would last time i checked have to go a considerably longer route just to go via a charger adding a decent chunk of time without the charging time. last time i made it there and back on a tank of petrol and i dont think is topped once wither direction couple that with travelling early in the morning (at least there iirc i left at 4/5am) it took considerably less time than it could of done. irc my record is something like 4 hours last time i tried the way i would have to go to use chargers (now granted traffic affected this) it took nearer 8

[crc-ict]

I must lead a really boring life, I've never had the misfortune to need to drive to the other end of the country in my 40+ years of driving. I realise that families live in a much wider spread of the country than they used too and you might need to visit a sick relative/friend, but this argument has been beaten to death.

 

 

I've never needed to either. But it's nice to know the capability is there. And for me, it's not worth the additional expense and hassle to 'upgrade' to a less capable vehicle.

 

Having said all that, some quick 'back of a fag packet' maths has just shown me that something like a Nissan Leaf would make an awful lot of sense for my wife, who has a rather different use case for a car than I do.

 

I also throw a spanner in the works for needing towing capability with long range too!

[IrritableTech]

I've never needed to either. But it's nice to know the capability is there. And for me, it's not worth the additional expense and hassle to 'upgrade' to a less capable vehicle.

Having said all that, some quick 'back of a fag packet' maths has just shown me that something like a Nissan Leaf would make an awful lot of sense for my wife, who has a rather different use case for a car than I do.

I also throw a spanner in the works for needing towing capability with long range too!

 

Sounds like you have a similar usage to my family. My wife's car never does more than 100 miles in a day - and that is a very rare occurrence. She mainly does 5 miles here and 10 miles there with her car sat on the drive normally half of the week. A (fairly small capacity) full EV car would suit her well.

 

Me - well I have a small commute of 5 miles each way but take longer journeys on a weekend - when I also pull a caravan weighing 1400kg. So the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV I got last week to replace the diesel fits perfectly. Pure electric commutes and a petrol engine to kick in when the battery is flat or the car is using lots of electricity pulling a big white lump along the motorway.

[crc-ict]

Sounds like you have a similar usage to my family. My wife's car never does more than 100 miles in a day - and that is a very rare occurrence. She mainly does 5 miles here and 10 miles there with her car sat on the drive normally half of the week. A (fairly small capacity) full EV car would suit her well.

 

Me - well I have a small commute of 5 miles each way but take longer journeys on a weekend - when I also pull a caravan weighing 1400kg. So the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV I got last week to replace the diesel fits perfectly. Pure electric commutes and a petrol engine to kick in when the battery is flat or the car is using lots of electricity pulling a big white lump along the motorway.

 

Exactly the same situation by the sounds of it, although I'm on about 20 miles each way commute. My need is for caravan towing too!

 

How is the Outlander? I might be looking for a new towcar later this year / early next (HQ wants a heavier caravan!).

[casey]

for me its the stopping for extended periods of time. when i do long distances i just want to get there asap i dont want to stop at all if i cn avoid it and certainly not for longer than a comfort break or time to eat a sarnie. It also depends on where you are going to go to my sisters for instance (leeds - st davids approximately) i would last time i checked have to go a considerably longer route just to go via a charger adding a decent chunk of time without the charging time. last time i made it there and back on a tank of petrol and i dont think is topped once wither direction couple that with travelling early in the morning (at least there iirc i left at 4/5am) it took considerably less time than it could of done. irc my record is something like 4 hours last time i tried the way i would have to go to use chargers (now granted traffic affected this) it took nearer 8

 

Well, you've got me on both counts. Wales is known as a bit of a charging black hole in the EV community, hopefully that will improve as time goes on.

 

And the 'not wanting to stop' thing is probably related to age. My in-laws used to take almost a whole day to travel to Plymouth from Southampton, which would have driven me crazy.

I've become less bothered about the time as I've become older, but I still wouldn't spend 6 hours on that particular journey!

[casey]

So the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV I got last week to replace the diesel fits perfectly. Pure electric commutes and a petrol engine to kick in when the battery is flat or the car is using lots of electricity pulling a big white lump along the motorway.

 

I considered an Outlander when I started looking at EVs because it was a good compromise of electric and petrol. It was just too big (and expensive) to justify for a 3 person family.

 

What sort of mileage do you get in pure EV mode? I read somewhere that the battery capacity has increased since it was introduced a few years ago.

[caffrey]

I have bad enough range anxiety in ICE cars, if the petrol gauge gets less than half I start getting nervous

 

Just wondering what happens if you do run out of charge mid journey, not like you can get a can of electric to get you going - I'm guessing most breakdown vans have charging facilities ?

[Andrew_C]

I'm guessing most breakdown vans have charging facilities ?

I'm guessing NONE do at the moment. You'd get towed to the nearest charger would be my guess.

[casey]

I have bad enough range anxiety in ICE cars, if the petrol gauge gets less than half I start getting nervous

 

Just wondering what happens if you do run out of charge mid journey, not like you can get a can of electric to get you going - I'm guessing most breakdown vans have charging facilities ?

 

As far as I can tell it's a flatbed recovery truck to the nearest charger. I have seen pictures of a 'mobile' charger but don't know if they exist as a product yet.

 

I did get down to less than 10 miles of range in my early days of EV driving and the car recommended I use Eco mode, I did get a but twitchy then, but I was local to home and not on a motorway miles away.

 

If you're that nervous about range maybe an EV is not for you at the moment.

 

But just in case you're a secret millionaire the latest Tesla Model S Long Range will do 370 miles at normal motorway speeds. An American car magazine recently drove one from Los Angeles to San Francisco without charging and still had range to spare.

[IrritableTech]

Exactly the same situation by the sounds of it, although I'm on about 20 miles each way commute. My need is for caravan towing too!

How is the Outlander? I might be looking for a new towcar later this year / early next (HQ wants a heavier caravan!).

 

Early days, had it less than a week but I think it's great so far. It's a bit weird getting used to electric - no gears, quiet and with it being hybrid an engine that makes noises not directly attached to pedal pressure. The petrol motor kicks in when needed with no real noticeable signs. Haven't towed with it yet but the reviews were that it works pretty well. Max 1500kgs towing capacity though is worth noting. It's 100kgs less than the diesel version. 75kgs nose weight max.

I considered an Outlander when I started looking at EVs because it was a good compromise of electric and petrol. It was just too big (and expensive) to justify for a 3 person family.

What sort of mileage do you get in pure EV mode? I read somewhere that the battery capacity has increased since it was introduced a few years ago.

 

Mines a 2015 model so has the slightly smaller battery. Charged it up from empty last night and put 8kWh's into it - which is about right if the BMS saves the lowest 20 and highest 20% for longevity of the pack. It claimed 27 miles range this morning - but my previous full to empty test got 23 miles pure electric - driving conservatively but up and down some hills.

14p/KWh means it is costing me about 5p/mile in electric. I was doing about 17p/mile in my diesel on a good day.

I'm guessing NONE do at the moment. You'd get towed to the nearest charger would be my guess.

Sadly not - electric motors turn into electric generators when they are turned by mechanical force - and that could break the management system or over charge the battery. You need to be put on the back of a truck if your EV can't move under it's own power.

[caffrey]

In fairness My car does do less than 35mpg with a tiny tank though and the commute can be brutal even for a short journey