Christmas Raffle Strategy

[Seb1780]

This year our Head has decided to organise a raffle with a twist and I'd like your help in deciding what to do.

 

Each member of staff (approx 250 people) have been given one ticket to enter one of six seperate raffles, each raffle will have a different prize and we know what the prize for each raffle is.

 

Raffle A = £100

Raffle B = £50

Raffle C = £25

Raffle D = £12.50

Raffle E = £37.50

Raffle F = £75

 

The dilemma we all face is knowing which raffle to enter. Do you go for the big money or do you go for the smallest value hoping that your chances of winning are greater because fewer people chose that option?

 

I'm of the opinion that winning something is better than winning nothing, so the strategy to adopt is to go for the raffle with the fewest entrants. But which one would that be? Could you please vote for the raffle you would enter if you had a ticket.

 

Is anyone out there clued up on Game Theory?

 

Thanks

[sted]

my guess is the £50 option will be the least common as people will either go for the bottom 1 thinking nobody else will, the top one because its the biggest prize then you will get "clever" people who decide to go for the 2nd top/bottom thinking nobody else will have that idea so they will have it to themselves so going for one of the middle 2 will probably be the best bet (as again people trying to be celever might go for the 37.50 option avoiding the more obvious £50

[siuko]

I voted £100

 

Its a raffle so if I don't win it's no surprise - but if I do win I'm winning BIG!!

[LincolnE]

Game theory time....

 

Honestly, I'd just go for the highest one, A. If I win, I'm happy and nothing lost if I don't.

 

This is purely off what I think would be best to get the most money.

 

I'd expect the end result to be

 

Raffle A = 65 people (~£1.53 per person)

Raffle B = 40 people (~£1.25 per person)

Raffle C = 35 people (~£0.71 per person)

Raffle D = 30 people (~£0.41 per person)

Raffle E = 25 people (~£1.50 per person)

Raffle F = 55 people (~£1.36 per person)

[clareq]

I'd suggest you go with the lowest in this poll - it's an indication of how everyone will think.

[hardtailstar]

Has this raffle been done before?

 

Maybe its a test on all of his/her staff.

[Seb1780]

Update:

 

The following were the number of people entering each raffle, a pretty good correlation with the small poll

 

Raffle A = £100 = 56

Raffle B = £50 = 28

Raffle C = £25 = 9

Raffle D = £12.50 = 8

Raffle E = £37.50 = 25

Raffle F = £75 = 45

 

Having read a bit on Game Theory I colluded with four colleagues and we put our names in different raffles agreeing to share any and all winnings. My name wasn't drawn, but a friend's was and I came away with a mighty £7.50

 

#beatingthesystem