FFT Aspire Benchmarks Tanking

[CAM]

I've imported the Grade Median targets from FFT Aspire into 4Matrix and become somewhat alarmed at the P8 score of nearly -0.9!

 

Any clues as to what I may have done wrong? The year group has the latest KS2 data from FFT Aspire imported and the benchmark was set to 50%.

[Seb1780]

There's no way of predicting the current cohort's P8 score, and not only because P8 scores rely on the performance across the whole country. This current Y11 are the first with the new 9-1 grades, and all the A*-G grades are being re-evaluated. For instance, last year (summer 2016) a Grade C was worth 5 points in the Attainment 8 calculation, next year is will be worth 4 points. And that variation is not even across the grades, some are worth the same as last year and some are worth more. So whilst we can attempt to calculate the A8 score, this is meaningless when used to compare with the "expected Attainment 8" tables from last year.

 

There just is no way of forecasting P8

[CAM]

No it can't be resolved so to speak? I had a feeling this was the case but such a low score is a worry.

[ICTLady]

Have a look at the 4Matrix newsfeed, @CAM - there's an article explaining why Y11 P8 scores will look so low, and what schools can do about it.

[Seb1780]

Our P8 "forecast" in Go4schools has plummeted by about a whole point, even when the grade we are looking at is the FFT 20% challenge grade!

 

I know our school has the right curriculum, with all pupils filling buckets and taking appropriate courses; and I don't believe we have lost all the good teachers. So I expect when this all pans out next October we will have a similar P8 to this year and that's about as much forecasting as I'm prepared to do!

[CAM]

Thanks, I've printed a copy of that news article.

[tombry]

We stayed away from FFT this year, and instead have used the DfE expected attainment numbers to set targets - some of which are going to be impossible for some students to get, but if that's what the DfE are expecting, that's what we'll tell the students.

 

I'd love to see the article that 4Matrix has put up, but as a non-4Matrix school, I can't access it - is it something that can be shared?

[hschram]

I am sure that all of you have already figured out that all the GCSE subjects grades apart from English and Maths have effectively lost 10% ish of their value with the new number values. I would like to think that the Attainment 8 for most would/should be about at least 10% lower than last year just because of this not to mention that it's going to be a bit more difficult to get a grade 5 the old C (good pass) in English and Maths.

[tombry]

We're aware, we're just taking the approach that best to overshoot than under