Driverless cars - How will this change transport?

[CAM]

Do you ever look at futuristic cities in sci-fi, see all those "skylanes" of flying ships between vast skyscrapers and think "How would that work safely in real life? I wouldn't trust joe public to fly one of those, they can barely handle a car on the ground!"

 

I think everyone around 2000 was quick to go "Where is my flying car?" but before that can be implemented, you'd need to take as much control as possible out of the public's hands. It would need to be able to merge with lanes of flying traffic and not crash into a skyscraper in mid-air, killing hundreds of people and causing millions in damage.

 

"But CAM, where the hell are you going with this?"

 

Before we can invent automatic navigation for a flying car, we need to perfect it on the ground. That's where self-driving cars come in. They aren't an end product but a refinement of taking a vehicle and allowing it go anywhere you want and react to hazards and other vehicles on the road. You can do this on the ground with the benefit of not crashing into a skyscraper whilst ironing out the bugs and killing hundreds of people. Eventually, the technology to be one entity in a swarm of nearby traffic to get you from A to B will be merged with existing aerospace technology to create the navigation and hazard perception systems for our flying cars. When we can finally build them.

 

So instead of asking "where's my flying car?" instead ask "where's my self-driving car and then I want my flying car!"

 

It was a long motorway journey.....

[CAM]

Do you ever look at futuristic cities in sci-fi, see all those "skylanes" of flying ships between vast skyscrapers and think "How would that work safely in real life? I wouldn't trust joe public to fly one of those, they can barely handle a car on the ground!"

 

I think everyone around 2000 was quick to go "Where is my flying car?" but before that can be implemented, you'd need to take as much control as possible out of the public's hands. It would need to be able to merge with lanes of flying traffic and not crash into a skyscraper in mid-air, killing hundreds of people and causing millions in damage.

 

"But CAM, where the hell are you going with this?"

 

Before we can invent automatic navigation for a flying car, we need to perfect it on the ground. That's where self-driving cars come in. They aren't an end product but a refinement of taking a vehicle and allowing it go anywhere you want and react to hazards and other vehicles on the road. You can do this on the ground with the benefit of not crashing into a skyscraper whilst ironing out the bugs and killing hundreds of people. Eventually, the technology to be one entity in a swarm of nearby traffic to get you from A to B will be merged with existing aerospace technology to create the navigation and hazard perception systems for our flying cars. When we can finally build them.

 

So instead of asking "where's my flying car?" instead ask "where's my self-driving car and then I want my flying car!"

 

It was a long motorway journey.....

[unixman_again]

I think driverless trains are much more viable, especially as they exist already. Should be implemented here in Blighty ASAP.

[unixman_again]

I think driverless trains are much more viable, especially as they exist already. Should be implemented here in Blighty ASAP.

[TechMonkey]

Driverless trucks in the UK are also going to be waaaay in the future (if at all) as we have too many small roads to navigate with hazards that computers simply won't be able to factor in such as weak verges and other hard to see hazards.

 

The current thinking is that Driverless trucks would run on main roads and then get to a depot or way station when a local 'pilot' would get on board and take over for that last leg of the journey. It may mean a massive change in where companies base themselves to save money or to make the logistics work.

 

As for the crashing, I don't doubt it will happen but I think it is very much more unlikely than people can get their heads around at the moment. All this philosophy of "Should a driverless car crash into a single child or a group of pensioners and how will it learn?" is rubbish as the onboard computer will probably have seen the issue and either stopped well in advance or calculated a course to avoid. If a crash happens because the owner did (or did not do) something then it will be their issue, otherwise the manufacturer will be on the line. The computer will have all the logging and be able to show what happened in minute detail, rather than the current "make everything 50/50" as insurance companies don't actually want to spend money.

 

There will be a lot of mind shifting that will have to take place, as someone mentioned, will it still be illegal to be in control of a vehicle while under the influence if you aren't in control of the vehicle?

[TechMonkey]

Driverless trucks in the UK are also going to be waaaay in the future (if at all) as we have too many small roads to navigate with hazards that computers simply won't be able to factor in such as weak verges and other hard to see hazards.

 

The current thinking is that Driverless trucks would run on main roads and then get to a depot or way station when a local 'pilot' would get on board and take over for that last leg of the journey. It may mean a massive change in where companies base themselves to save money or to make the logistics work.

 

As for the crashing, I don't doubt it will happen but I think it is very much more unlikely than people can get their heads around at the moment. All this philosophy of "Should a driverless car crash into a single child or a group of pensioners and how will it learn?" is rubbish as the onboard computer will probably have seen the issue and either stopped well in advance or calculated a course to avoid. If a crash happens because the owner did (or did not do) something then it will be their issue, otherwise the manufacturer will be on the line. The computer will have all the logging and be able to show what happened in minute detail, rather than the current "make everything 50/50" as insurance companies don't actually want to spend money.

 

There will be a lot of mind shifting that will have to take place, as someone mentioned, will it still be illegal to be in control of a vehicle while under the influence if you aren't in control of the vehicle?

[JCB]

I think driverless trains are much more viable, especially as they exist already. Should be implemented here in Blighty ASAP.

 

Docklands Light Railway is an example of this already happening. More trains would be driverless if it wasn't for the might of the train drivers unions.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk/davehillblog/2012/feb/29/boris-johnson-driverless-underground-trains

[JCB]

I think driverless trains are much more viable, especially as they exist already. Should be implemented here in Blighty ASAP.

 

Docklands Light Railway is an example of this already happening. More trains would be driverless if it wasn't for the might of the train drivers unions.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk/davehillblog/2012/feb/29/boris-johnson-driverless-underground-trains

[mats]

Much as I'd like a car I can legally fall asleep in - unworried by idiots driving cars - I think the insurance and safety problems mean they are further off than most people think.

 

Also, I suspect they will increase traffic levels (and congestion) as they drive around empty collecting people / things. This may be offset by closer inter car distances in moving traffic. I'd love to not own a car - mine sits there depreciating / costing £ in tax & insurance for days on end.

[mats]

Much as I'd like a car I can legally fall asleep in - unworried by idiots driving cars - I think the insurance and safety problems mean they are further off than most people think.

 

Also, I suspect they will increase traffic levels (and congestion) as they drive around empty collecting people / things. This may be offset by closer inter car distances in moving traffic. I'd love to not own a car - mine sits there depreciating / costing £ in tax & insurance for days on end.

[Theblacksheep]

How will the cars drive? what is going to guide them and how are they going to park? GPS wont work in multistories/underground carparks, the tunnels etc etc

how will you get to an industrial estate or along a private road.

 

 

Its hard to talk about this without mentioning the company that are going along this path in commercial vehicles right now. Right now a Tesla has:

 

Forward facing radar

3 forward facing camera for different depths

2 cameras in indicators

2 cameras on door pillars

rear camera

Nvidia Drive PX2 for image processing

 

 

Right now only one forward facing camera is being used.

 

How do you refill an autonomous car? Electric is the only way, the big manufactures are coming round but years behind at the moment.

[LeMarchand]

Seeing as there is now a VAST amount of money being pumped into the technologies to make driverless cars a very real thing in the not too distant future (see this report: Intel buys driverless car technology firm Mobileye - BBC News) I wonder how this will affect how we use cars and the impact on transport based economies?

I really do think that in 20 years time this may become the norm rather than the exception and even trucks are predicted to have driverless abilities. To this end, I think that car ownership may be something that might dwindle.

Imagine paying to merely have access to a car as and when you want it rather than having to own one that is permantly 'yours', and what affect this may have on taxi companies.

Admittedly there are a lot of things to work out in the meantime, but I think this will change the way we get around dramatically in the next decade or so.

 

Been thinking about this of late too. It's going to be another "low entry point" (for the main) job gone as we won't need taxis. That said, I'd rather have a car only for the times I need one. One thought I had was that surely this may mean fewer cars being sold? Can't see that going down too well.

 

Also, what about all those "look at the size of my engine" (or wallet) cars? Will people really give them up? If not, won't that throw a spanner in the works?

 

I also worry about ethics. I can see some people wanting to pay for "VIP" status that would mean that the po' folk's cars have to give way to them. Plus surely Empress May's battle wagon would have "avoid damage to this vehicle at any cost" broadcast tech?

 

I could talk about this for hours as it is the start of an interesting age but I bet it all gets hijacked and we end up Blade runner/Judge Dredd rather then Star Trek.

 

I think you mean the former = busy and manual, but Chekov always seems to have to do the most intricate part of any trip (take off/landing) manually.

[jinnantonnixx]

 

As for the crashing, I don't doubt it will happen but I think it is very much more unlikely than people can get their heads around at the moment. All this philosophy of "Should a driverless car crash into a single child or a group of pensioners and how will it learn?"

 

 

Quite a problem.

 

Imagine a driverless car going down the road and seeing Theresa May and David Cameron on opposite sides of the street - but it can only run over one of them. Gives software engineers sleepless nights.

Edited March 14, 2017 by jinnantonnixx

[difinity]

Quite a problem.

 

Image a driverless car going down the road and seeing Theresa May and David Cameron on opposite sides of the street - but it can only run over one of them. Gives software engineers sleepless nights.

 

So a car with far more processing power than the rocket that landed man on the moon can't figure out how to power slide and take out the both ? I don't think the tech is ready for the mainstream just yet.

[jinnantonnixx]

So a car with far more processing power than the rocket that landed man on the moon can't figure out how to power slide and take out the both ? I don't think the tech is ready for the mainstream just yet.

 

Perhaps you''re right. More development needed.

[LeMarchand]

Further thoughts:

 

Surely the lovely free flowing traffic model in the video only works if all cars are both driverless and talking to each other? The former might cause hardship for people who can only afford to subscribe to Bangernomical cars; the latter doesn't seem to be a popular idea in most boardrooms.

 

The insurance industry will surely be unhappy (shame!) that they won't be able to penalise certain people. Maybe they'll come up with a "pay by the mile" scheme with penalties for driving in certain areas.

 

Plus differentiating car models and subsequently being able to charge more will be different. If everything does the speed limit and drives in a preprogrammed way they can't rhapsodise amount max speeds and acceleration and while some people will want leather upholstery etc, for most comfy seats and a charge point will be all they need - they can just use their phone/tablet for entertainment.