laserblazer Posted January 9, 2012 Posted January 9, 2012 This relates to the bungee jumper whose elastic band broke plunging her into the Zambesi. "The bungee has proven to be a very viable operation considering that more than 50,000 tourists jump on it every year," Lubinda said. "It has been in operation for 10 years. This is the first time I am hearing of an incident. The probability of an incident is one in 500,000 jumps."
Pottsey Posted January 9, 2012 Posted January 9, 2012 Am I missing something or did I mess up the math? What is so funny? 50,000 jumps per year for 10 years = 500,000 over the event lifetime. One incident in 10 years = 1 in 500,000 jumps.
Mcshammer_dj Posted January 9, 2012 Posted January 9, 2012 Well that reassures me no end. So according to his logic it will be totally safe for another 10 years!!!!
Jamman960 Posted January 9, 2012 Posted January 9, 2012 lol, I can just imagine the safety recommendation... "Cord must be replaced every 499,999 jumps"
featured_spectre Posted January 9, 2012 Posted January 9, 2012 Not a bad safety record considering some snap around the 200k mark. Would never do it unless it was a brand spanking new cord
Pottsey Posted January 9, 2012 Posted January 9, 2012 (edited) Well that reassures me no end. So according to his logic it will be totally safe for another 10 years!!!! Why wouldn’t it be? It’s been safe for the past 10years so the odds seem very good to me that it will be safe for the next 10 years. Perhaps longer if they now check the cord more often. Of course its odds so its not 100% safe but about as safe as you can get at 1 in half a million. EDIT: Isn’t that better odds then most medication people wouldn’t think twice about taking. Edited January 9, 2012 by Pottsey
Greenbeast Posted January 9, 2012 Posted January 9, 2012 Am I missing something or did I mess up the math? What is so funny? 50,000 jumps per year for 10 years = 500,000 over the event lifetime. One incident in 10 years = 1 in 500,000 jumps. I was amused because he has just created this statistic on the spot, if asked the day before the event would he have said 'well we've never had a breakage so it'll probably last forever'
Hokalus Posted January 9, 2012 Posted January 9, 2012 500,000 jumps in 10 years would be 137 every day, or one every 4 1/2 minutes based on a 10 hour working day. Is he sure he hasn't just pulled that number out of his arse?
Mcshammer_dj Posted January 9, 2012 Posted January 9, 2012 (edited) lol, I can just imagine the safety recommendation... "Cord must be replaced every 499,999 jumps" You are 499,999 in the queue (give or take) Edited January 9, 2012 by Mcshammer_dj
Pottsey Posted January 9, 2012 Posted January 9, 2012 500,000 jumps in 10 years would be 137 every day, or one every 4 1/2 minutes based on a 10 hour working day. Is he sure he hasn't just pulled that number out of his arse? Can more then one person jump at once? Still when you put it like you have that seems like a lot of people even with 2 or 3 jumping at once. Surely they most have lost some days due to weather and other reasons.
LosOjos Posted January 9, 2012 Posted January 9, 2012 (edited) Why wouldn’t it be? It’s been safe for the past 10years so the odds seem very good to me that it will be safe for the next 10 years. Perhaps longer if they now check the cord more often. Of course its odds so its not 100% safe but about as safe as you can get at 1 in half a million. EDIT: Isn’t that better odds then most medication people wouldn’t think twice about taking. Because one run of events does not make for an accurate statistic. It's just an example of journalistic filler to take up page space. For instance, based on this cord breaking after 500k uses, you wouldn't then say that the cord has a life of 500k uses immediately. You'd need multiple tests on multiple cables made to the same standards, then after a given number of tests, you'd take the shortest life of any of the tests and reduce it by whatever is deemed a reasonably safe level; then you'd have good grounds for a reliable figure. Having said that, statistics can say whatever you want them to. Scratch cards claim you have [approx] a 1 in 5 chance of winning. I've bought one every week for the past year, and have won maybe 3 times, i.e. 1 in 17.3 - nowhere near the officially quoted statistic. Edited January 9, 2012 by LosOjos
Gatt Posted January 9, 2012 Posted January 9, 2012 Having said that, statistics can say whatever you want them to. Scratch cards claim you have [approx] a 1 in 5 chance of winning. I've bought one every week for the past year, and have won maybe 3 times, i.e. 1 in 17.3 - nowhere near the officially quoted statistic. So if I buy 10 Scratch Cards at the same time - Am I, statistically, going to win twice? As for Bungee Jumping - It's not my idea of fun and I don't trust the ropes to not snap As for doing a bungee jump over cooc-infested waters - there is more chance of Myself and Mr Frosty having a holiday in the lands of Mr S A Tan...
Mcshammer_dj Posted January 9, 2012 Posted January 9, 2012 could be worse.... from the 1997 Darwin awards (13 July 1997, Virginia) Eric A. Barcia, a 22-year-old Reston, VA resident, was found dead yesterday after he used bungee cords to jump off a 70-foot railroad trestle, police said. The fast food worker taped a number of bungee cords together and strapped one end around his foot. Barcia had the foresight to anchor the other end to the trestle at Lake Accotink Park, and he even remembered to measure the length of the bungee cords to make sure that they were a few feet short of the 70 foot drop. He proceeded to fall headfirst from the trestle, and hit the pavement 70 feet below several seconds later. Fairfax County police said "The stretched length of the cord that he had assembled was greater than the distance between the trestle and the ground." Perhaps the deceased fast food worker should have stuck to the line, "Do you want fries with that?"
LosOjos Posted January 9, 2012 Posted January 9, 2012 So if I buy 10 Scratch Cards at the same time - Am I, statistically, going to win twice? Nope - that was my point statistics say you should but we all know statistics are really just an educated guess
Gatt Posted January 9, 2012 Posted January 9, 2012 Nope - that was my point statistics say you should but we all know statistics are really just an educated guess According to statistics...
Mcshammer_dj Posted January 9, 2012 Posted January 9, 2012 could have be worse still....... From the Darwin Awards TACOMA, WA - Kerry Bingham, had been drinking with several friends when one of them said they knew a person who had bungee-jumped from the Tacoma Narrows Bridge in the middle of traffic. The conversation grew more heated and at least 10 men trooped along the walkway of the bridge at 4:30 am. Upon arrival at the midpoint of the ridge they discovered that no one had brought bungee rope. Bingham, who had continued drinking, volunteered and pointed out that a coil of lineman's cable lay nearby. One end of the cable was secured around Bingham's leg and the other end was tied to the bridge. His fall lasted 40 feet before the cable tightened and tore his foot off at the ankle. He miraculously survived his fall into the icy river water and was rescued by two nearby fishermen. "All I can say," said Bingham, "is that God was watching out for me on that night. There's just no other explanation for it." Bingham's foot was never located.
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