Progress 8

[LBurns]

Hi,

 

How can I estimate year 10's future progress 8 scores using the new KS2 2016 scores?

 

Thanks

[bobsmith]

not really a technical question so much as an education/statistics one - still let's have a go shall we?

 

my way - make some kind of rough correlation between the scaled scores and the old ks2 fine points scores - then simply hijack the a8 estimates that use the ks2 fine point scores.

 

make sure to put big stickers on everything saying "take with a pinch of salt".

 

I think FFT just came out with their own estimates - didn't look into their methodology yet - but it will be another variation of guessing.

[sefton]

Short answer, don't.

[LBurns]

Thank you, I'll give that a go.

[sefton]

If you use Sisra then you can do P8 on there.

 

I've attached a scaled score to fine levels conversion spreadsheet.Scaled-Score-to-Fine-Level-Conversion Blank.xlsx

[Reverend_Dan]

I was at a Sisra meeting the last month and they are recommending using this resource https://www.tes.com/resources/search/?authorId=341080 and tweaking it to your school. Until the DfE actually come up with something. They are urging people to upload the scaled scores as once the DfE publishes their actual formula they will make available the "real" P8 predictions. Edited December 16, 2019 by Reverend_Dan
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[LBurns]

That is so helpful. Thank you.

[EduTechSLT]

The DfE is to publish calculation early spring. We compared old questions from the levelled SATs to be able to give us a stick in the ground and use for rough calculations. Looking at GCSE productions from mocks they seem pretty close

[Bromcom_John]

Quite a few schools have used early published shadow measures (or even just use last years figures) to get an indicator value.

You'll obviously need some means to get the values into your reporting engine, excel can be used at a pinch. Your MIS provider "may" have an option to include custom benchmarks.

This could give you a couple of months head start.. you'd need to evaluate the benefits that this "extra early" but wholly inaccurate indicator would give you.

[DODICT]

4Matrix has done a good piece of work on this to essentially break cohorts into percentile ranks in order to map new standardised scores onto KS2 fine levels and as such generate a progress 8 scores using historical Attainment estimates.

 

Obviously you need to be using it to instantly access the functionality but then you can just import KS2 from Key to Success and you can then see what the cohort would get if using the 2019 A8 estimates etc.

 

Accurate predictions they arent - but IMO useful guides as to the performance at cohort and student level. Think 4 Matrix published it as a white paper so may be okay to get your hands on the mappings they generated.

 

You dont need to know what you school P8 score is at this point you want to identify which students most need support to get them their best possible outcomes which in turn would help contribute to a positive whole school figure.

[CAM]

I use 4Matrix and the same thing as @DODICT, but with a big fat warning about the data being a stab in the dark at best given there are 2-3 different estimates alone in the whole process.

 

You will need to speak to whoever provides the analysis software for your school, but officially there are no guidelines provided by the DfE for translating Scaled Scores to progress and it is unlikely they will provide any at all until it is too late and the performance tables are in your lap.