NEW GCSE'S 1-9 GRADES

[Natashac15]

Hi, I was wondering if anyone could possibly help me please. For my Current Year 9 I am trying to set up the 1-9 Grades for their English and maths. I am not sure as to how to go about setting targets, and what their maths KS2 sublevel equates to so for example 2a , 3c, 6a etc what are these in terms of 1-9. Has anyone set up their SIMS templetes/Excel document that I could have a look at to get me started. Any ideas anyone

 

Many Thanks in advance.

[bobsmith]

Good morning

 

Targets are not set by anyone other than your school - even the minimum expected progress of 3 levels from ks2 to ks4 isn't actually achieved nationally at anything like 100%.

 

The DfE haven't published anything that I'm aware of that links ks2 to the new 1-9 scale.

 

What you have got is a rough idea of how 1-9 matches to the A-G system. So if you had an existing school method of setting targets you could probably do some kind of conversion from the old grades to the new ones.

[Banjo]

Well as grades 5-9 are now classed as 'Good GCSE's' and the points values for Progress 8 are now biased towards these grades i.e. 0.5 pts difference between the bottom grades and 1.5pts difference at the top, then as a target maybe treat 5 as an old C. I believe statistically a grade C should be a 4/5, but as 4 is now classed as ‘bad’ GCSE, grade 5 is what those students should be aiming for and then fill out up and down from there. Edited July 9, 2015 by Banjo

[bobsmith]

Natashac15 - does your school have an FFT Aspire subscription?

[Natashac15]

This is very helpful - thank you.. Can I ask for my current year 9's, If I convert their KS2 maths Sublevels to a A*-G GCSE Grade and then convert these to the New Numbers grade - would you all think this is the best way to go about it? Can anyone guide me as to Which number is which grade - I do have a chart but some umbers are in between the NEW GCSE Numbers. Also as for working out the residuals and working out if pupils are on/below/at target, is their any advice anyone could possibly give me as to how to work all this out on the SIMS marksheets/templates.

ANd yes - We do have FFT Subscriptions

 

Many thanks all.

[bobsmith]

If you have an FFT subscription then you'll be able to set appropriate subject targets from within the software - guided by the information FFT provides.

 

You can then import them into SIMS (via csv but it's not that painful).

 

FFT will be adding a button to switch the targets between A-G and 9-1 at some point in the near future (once they have a better idea of the correlation)

 

Residuals in year 9 sounds a little bit like jumping the gun, i don't calculate them - just let the exam analysis reports handle it in the summer for year 11.

 

RAGing is great fun - you want a calculation which works out if the current grade is higher, lower or the same as the target, then another column using a "nested if then else" to apply the colours in each case.

[LosOjos]

If you look at the Progress 8 technical document: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/415486/Progress_8_school_performance_measure.pdf

 

You'll see the expected outcome for Progress 8 based on KS2. Working back from there, you can calculate the minimum grade a student should average in all subjects to achieve a positive progress 8 score (remember to round up, or they could hit that "minimum" in all subjects and still have a negative progress 8 score). We'll be using that minimum as a basis for staff to set their aspirational targets.

[bobsmith]

Changes to national subject entry patterns and performance will cause these estimates

to change in future years, as they will be derived from averages from later cohorts. As

such they should be treated with caution if extrapolating to cohorts beyond 2014.

 

I've been taking these numbers with a mountain of salt. By the time your year 9's actually take their GCSEs I believe those numbers would have increased dramatically.

[Natashac15]

sorry for being thick - but is their anychance you can go through this with me as to how to work out the minimum grade/progress 8 score please.

Very much appreciated

 

Thank you

[LosOjos]

I've been taking these numbers with a mountain of salt. By the time your year 9's actually take their GCSEs I believe those numbers would have increased dramatically.

 

Yeah it's all very, very vague at the moment. We'll be continuing to use Fischer for the foreseeable, with whatever our best estimate of Progress 8 is informing 'minimum' targets for students and helping us identify departments where we may have a serious issue (of course there are always exceptions but you have to have a basis somewhere)

 

There's also the fact that the P8 will be based on the results 3 years prior from 2019. While I can see the benefit in having clearly defined expectations ahead of time, I really do think a 3 year moving average would have been better. As it is, if we have another odd years like last where half the country's English GCSEs are regraded, we could end up in a situation where 3 years later we have exceptionally high standards to meet.

[LosOjos]

sorry for being thick - but is their anychance you can go through this with me as to how to work out the minimum grade/progress 8 score please.

Very much appreciated

 

Thank you

 

On P29 of the linked document (https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/415486/Progress_8_school_performance_measure.pdf) it shows the expected Progress 8 score based on KS2 fine level (average of English Reading + Maths).

 

As Progress 8 is based on 10 'buckets', dividing this score by 10 gives rough indication of a minimum grade (there are various rules around what counts for each bucket, with English being doubled if Lit is also taken, Maths being doubled, and the remaining 6 being made up of 3 EBACC subjects and any 3 other subjects (including further EBACC if the student took them)

 

Now you really, really have to be careful with this; this 'minimum' is based on on the student achieving that level in all their qualifying subjects, and them filling all criteria for the 10 'buckets'. There is also the problem that Progress 8 changes every year, and as we're heading in to our first year of Progress 8, these will get higher. There's no doubt about this in my mind; they're based currently on curriculum models that didn't require the various EBACC subjects being run, didn't require Lit be sat (you don't have to, but you will not then qualify for one of the ten buckets) and so as schools adapt to this new curriculum model, the scores can only get higher.

 

So for an example, a student coming in with a KS2 fine level of 4.5 is expected to have a P8 score of 46.37. Dividing by 10 we get 4.6 - which has to be rounded up to 5 to ensure the student would have a positive P8 if they achieved this in all subjects. So your student's mimumum is a 5. Again, be very careful as this is likely to rise dramatically in the next few years.

 

It's all a bit vague and unhelpful I know, but that's the nature of moving to a totally new model. Do what you can, but I'd say that for your Y9 and below it's essential you target considerably higher than current P8 suggests.

 

EDIT: for all the reasons mentioned above, Fischer is still going to be a better indicator of where you should be targeting your students for the foreseeable future I think, but it's also going to be essential to understand how Attainment 8 and Progress 8 work, as these will be used to judge schools from now on. Make sure your analysis shows you are aware of where you stand based on current Progress 8 estimates, I think any school failing to do so from next year will be had over the coals by OFSTED (only opinion, but it makes sense!)

Edited July 9, 2015 by LosOjos

[bobsmith]

The approach I'm taking is to continue to use FFT using the built in challenge from targeting like schools in the next boundary - (50th, 25th, 5th percentile of schools) compared to where we are.

 

I use the attainment 8 and Progress 8 calculations to tell us where we are in relation to those measures, but not for targeting.

 

The biggest issue for many schools will be filling the buckets, so the P8 scores that come out of SIMS are used by our heads of year and SLT to inform changes to curriculum etc.

[Natashac15]

Thank you very much for this - this does make sense now. Regarding the fine levels for current Year 9's, will this be a average of reading + writing + maths. Also another thing when target setting for English do I use the reading and writing average fine level or all 3 and same for Maths target setting using the fine level for just Maths.

 

Many thanks for all your help

[LosOjos]

Thank you very much for this - this does make sense now. Regarding the fine levels for current Year 9's, will this be a average of reading + writing + maths. Also another thing when target setting for English do I use the reading and writing average fine level or all 3 and same for Maths target setting using the fine level for just Maths.

 

Many thanks for all your help

 

If you mean in terms of Progress 8 - there is only a single target for Progress 8, and that's the final P8 score. This is why I talk about this target as a 'minimum' - it's a level that they must average in all their qualifying subjects to have a positive P8 score. This is why you can't just use this and say "there's your target" - use it as an informer, not a target on it's own. KS2 Fine Level is the average of Reading and Maths (apart from current Y10, where it's English + Maths)

 

Have a good read through that linked document, work through the examples, run some of your own data to see how it looks. It's going to be crucial you have a good grasp on that in the coming years. Unfortunately, nobody can give you definitive answers yet (as you'll notice there's lots of "we plan to", "we intend yo", "we will inform" in that document, the only official one that exists!) but the more we understand now, the more able we'll be to adapt to changes.

 

I advise lots of coffee and a quiet room

[Natashac15]

yes defo lots and lots of coffee :-) Thank you again for all this info it has really helped me out :-)

[Natashac15]

sorry to pester again - Average Fine Levels for Reading and maths FFT does not give this - well I can't see it. Their is a average of reading writing and maths

[bobsmith]

key to success should have the average points score, just divide by 6 for fine level.

 

FFT use a slightly different starting point methodology to the DfE, both are correct within the context of the outcomes generated.

[Natashac15]

is their a way to get the entire Year 9 Cohorts APS from using keys to success.

Thanks

[bobsmith]

yep - output a list of the UPNs for all of year 9, copy and paste into the "searchable pupil data" screen.

[Natashac15]

Thanks for this - but keys to success will the APS be the average for reading and maths? - as I am worried it will not be this and instead be the English and maths maybe even science.

[Natashac15]

thanks for this - I am wanting to calculate residuals for current year 9 who will be going into year 10 in September 2015 - but not sure as to how to go about it for English and maths as it will be the 1-9 GCSE grades?

 

Thank you

[bobsmith]

Thanks for this - but keys to success will the APS be the average for reading and maths? - as I am worried it will not be this and instead be the English and maths maybe even science.

 

the APS on key to success for any given cohort should be the one that the DfE will use for that cohort when it comes to the calculations - so it should be the correct one.

 

As for residuals - are you planning on calculating them yourself in a spreadsheet? Have you done this before - or is someone else demanding it?

[Natashac15]

great -

 

We calculate residuals within SIMS on all marksheets, but I am thinking for the English and maths being the 1-9 grades how can we calculate residuals on this.

Basically, I am trying to build a Maths Marksheet for September 2015 and teachers for maths and English are going to input the GCSE number grades as estimates and not GCSE A*-G grades. So I am just after some advice as to what to actually put on the marksheet what will teachers need to see, currently I ave the usual SEN/Ethnicity/gender etc, KS2 Maths Sublevel, Reading Sublevel, KS2 fine level average, Attainment 8 ESTimate, NEW maths target grades (1-9). I was wondering what schools are putting on their maths marksheets and what teachers need to see and what calculations are on their - hope this makes sense.

 

Thanks

[bobsmith]

so how do you currently calculate residuals?

 

Can you give an example of the formula?

[Natashac15]

yes we work out residuals for KS4- so in SIMS we do formula entry which works out the difference between estimated grade and Target and then another column nested if else if 0 = yellow if more than 0 = green and if below 0 = red