[sims] Progress 8 Measure

[AliWoodley]

Yes, that is exactly my grade set I am using for the average attainment 8

[BKGarry]

I was thinking gradesets but then thought for ease of changes later on I would use the lookup tables.

[simpsonj]

I'm raising another thread from the dead, so apologies. My Data Manager is coming across an issue when calculating Progress 8 (Our Attainment 8 appears to be fine). I'll copy her question here:

 

I am looking for some clarity on converting KS2 point scores to Fine levels for the purpose of calculating Progress 8 for current year 10 students.

There are clear Dfe guidelines for converting point scores to whole levels – Level 4 is 24 points to 29.99 points

There are also clear guidelines for converting point scores to sublevels – Level 4b is 26 to 27.99 points

So, as an example, a student that has an aps of 26.26, would be a whole level 4, a sublevel 4b but what would the fine level be?

Ideally need a table that shows each of the fine levels to 1dp (eg 4.0, 4.1, 4.2 etc) and the equivalent point score boundaries.

 

If anyone could shed some light on this, would be most appreciated!

[BKGarry]

We pulled them out of FFT:live as they provide them as a decimal value, we have assumed that is the fine score.

[LosOjos]

We pulled them out of FFT:live as they provide them as a decimal value, we have assumed that is the fine score.

 

Yeah that's exactly what we have done and it seems about right - middle attainers broadly getting 3 LOP Eng/Maths according to Attainment 8 expected.

[Ecclesbury]

If I understand the question correctly, it is as simple as dividing the points score by 6 (and rounding to 1 decimal place if you wish)

 

26.6 would be level 4, sub level 4B, decimal level 4.4333333 (rounded to 4.4)

[vikpaw]

In the past, i made a fine level gradeset which just split the difference between levels into 10. So 4.0 = 24.0 or 24.0 to 24.599, 4.1 = 24.6 or 24.6 to 25.199

Basically each 10th/0.1 = 0.6 pts.

So a 4b is 4.33-4.66 based on your boundaries.

[Ecclesbury]

I might be wrong here, but I think part of the reason for having points values for levels is that it makes splitting the levels into 3 easier and avoid all those smelly recurring decimals.

 

When working with whole levels, sub levels decimalised levels, points etc etc I think it's worth going right back to beginning to see the logic of calculating each measure. Let's give it a try!

 

- A student sits their KS2 maths tests and gets a raw mark out of 100.

- The DfE release the whole level boundaries for the KS2 maths test.

- Whole levels can easily be calculated by converting this mark into a level using these boundaries

- Using the level boundaries we know exactly how many marks separate each level so we can split the level equally into that many chunks. Say there are 20 marks between a 4 and a 5 then each mark is worth 0.05 of that level. This is how we calculate the decimalised (or fine) level for each mark.

- Since splitting a level into 3 leaves us with messy remainders, we multiply each decimalised level by 6 to give us the decimalised points value for each mark.

- Since we've multiplied the levels by 6 we know that a level 4 is now 24 points, a level 5 is 30 points etc. So each sub level is separated by 2 (4C = 24+, 4B=26+, 4A=28+ etc)

- We can now take the decimised points score and convert it to a sub level using the lookup table described above.

 

Have I made any blunders with this? I had to try and figure this out when our school opted out of using FFT and my decimal levels safety blanket was rudely snatched away from me!

[simpsonj]

If I understand the question correctly, it is as simple as dividing the points score by 6 (and rounding to 1 decimal place if you wish)

 

26.6 would be level 4, sub level 4B, decimal level 4.4333333 (rounded to 4.4)

 

The question was actually based on a value of 26.26, so therefore would you round up or round down?

[Ecclesbury]

The question was actually based on a value of 26.26, so therefore would you round up or round down?

 

Apologies, lack of attention to detail on my part...not a good sign!

 

So the decimalised level for 26.26 would be 4.3766666666... rounded to 4.4 to 1 decimal place.

[simpsonj]

If you round up, look at what happens to the points at the whole level boundary:-

 

An APS of 23.75, would generate a fine level of 3.958. With the logic above, this would round up to a fine level of 4.0.

 

So, you would have 23.75 generating a whole level of 3 (its less than 24 points), a sublevel of 3a and a fine level of 4.0.

 

This seems inconsistent

[Ecclesbury]

Is this for the purpose of calculating predicted Attainment 8 scores by any chance?

 

Until now I would never have had a need to round a decimalised level so the issue has never come up. The only time I have seen decimalised levels rounded to 1dp are on the attainment8 prediction look up tables.

 

In this case I don't think it is clear on exactly how the DfE intend to round the decimalised level, but I would see no problem with rounding properly. If a students has a decimalised level of 3.958 I see see no reason why you wouldn't use the 4.0 level prediction rather than the 3.9. At this stage of the game I don't think it really matters since no judgments are being made on these measures and they are no indication of future performance. As long as you are internally consistent it won't make a difference, it might just skew the middle. Unless of course you are using predicted attainment 8 scores to generate individual targets which I think is a pretty bad idea.

 

To try to be clear I am not saying that the decimalised level for 23.75 points is 4.0. I'm saying it is 3.958. The rounding is just necessary for the particular job in hand.

Edited November 21, 2014 by Ecclesbury

[simpsonj]

Yes we are asking the questions for the purpose of calculating predicted Attainment 8 scores.

 

I think the critical sentence is "I don't think it is clear yet how the Dfe intend to round the decimalised level"

 

However, I do think it is important, because we need to be reporting on a Progress 8 figure that is as accurate as it can be at this stage of the game.

[LosOjos]

However, I do think it is important, because we need to be reporting on a Progress 8 figure that is as accurate as it can be at this stage of the game.

 

In all the info I've seen on Progress/Attainment 8, it has been strongly suspected that the current 'expected scores' are much lower than those we'll be judged against. This makes sense, as school will be starting to pay more attention to ensure students achieve all 8 'slots' of Progress 8 to maximize the school's score, in turn driving up the national average that these figures are based on.

 

On that basis, you'd only be increasing the impact of raised targets if you didn't round up; so that's what I'd do.

[Ecclesbury]

You took the words right out of my mouth. I read back through the posts and realised that the answer you were really looking for was "nobody knows!"

 

Out of interest, who are you reporting this Progress 8 figure to and for what purpose? It's an intriguing problem...what to do with the information we currently have.

[simpsonj]

We're looking at this for our internal school analysis but it will also be part of the portfolio for Ofsted.

[PhilNeal]

The new school report calculates Progress 8 amongst many other things for you. As the DfE refine the rules we'll update the report.

[LosOjos]

The new school report calculates Progress 8 amongst many other things for you. As the DfE refine the rules we'll update the report.

 

Where is this report @PhilNeal?

[simpsonj]

Thanks for the update @PhilNeal, we're looking forward to receiving the update from ScoMIS (hopefully over the next week or so).

 

Could we ask whether Capite/SIMS are calculating the KS2 fine levels or whether it is an input parameter to the report?

[tombry]

not phil, but I believe it's part of the mapped aspects functionality that was set up for Primary schools already - I'd like to know as well - especially when it comes to figuring out which aspects it expects to map

[PhilNeal]

I'm out and about so can't get to my pc. The release note should point you in the right direction.

[PhilNeal]

The school report can be found at the bottom of the Reports Menu. It is a very popular report for SMT as it is in effect a live "Raise on line" - loads of stats not only Progress 8. It should be on their "Favourites". You will need to use the Assessment Mapping tool to map your aspects to ours.

[bobsmith]

You will need to use the Assessment Mapping tool to map your aspects to ours.

 

Is there an idiots guide for this tool? There are no aspects showing to map to for KS4 subjects on our system??

[PhilNeal]

Search for "mapping" in MyAccount and the manual is listed on the right of the display

[bobsmith]

Search for "mapping" in MyAccount and the manual is listed on the right of the display

 

And here was the missing piece to the puzzle!!

 

Import the Capita generic data - my predecessor hadn't got that far....

 

thanks @PhilNeal