UK economy at risk, warns Cameron...

[Andrew_C]

Very true, thats why they are MPs !!

Why did I think of teachers when I read that?

[torledo]

Strongish economy, possibly but just take a look at the whole of the 80s and a good chunk of the 90s - not such a strong economy then - maybe the Conservatives don't know what to do after all.

 

Of course, we can go back further, and look at the late 70s - massive inflation, government drifting, complete mess; looks like Labour have no clue either.

 

Peering further back into the mists of time, we have the 3 day week, no electricity, candles running out in shops because people had to buy them to provide lighting. Maybe the Conservatives weren't that good then.

 

We can play this game for a long time - everyone can come up with reasons why the "other" side is bad or good but it doesn't really help.

 

I've no idea whether this government's plans are going to fix the problems but I really hope that they have got the right idea and we're not going to go back to the poor economic circumstances we've had too many times before.

 

A few of the things which could help compared to the last recession is that interest rates are very low so although people have borrowed stupid amounts of money it is still affordable to pay it back (for those who weren't around or have just forgotten, in the early 90s we were paying over 15% interest on mortgages). Unemployment is rising but it's nowhere near the levels of the last decade. Prices have risen but seem to be stabilising (petrol is cheaper now than it has been for well over a year; if the dollar/sterling exchange rate were improves then it will be even cheaper)

 

I want a government which tries to make sure that most people do OK. Not really sure which party that might be in the future.

 

We already have seriously poor economic conditions for a lot of people. British public on average are able to save only 1% of their monthly income after pension commitments are taken into account. We are personally indebted to the tune of over 1 trillion, millions of young people have been priced out of owning their own home by dispropotionate house price inflation. We are already seeing major job losses and we will most agree see very sharp increases into 2009.

 

So yes, i would say that's pretty serious. But wait, uncle gordon won't be able to create non-jobs fast enough and we have low interest rates, so things aren't THAT bad.

 

. It's quite clear that nulabour have been selective in which figures they use to measure unemployment. It's a given that we'll get close to 3million, and if you include those on incapacity benefit as being out of work [which labour don't] then you have over 3mill.

 

House prices have already dropped more in a few months than the drops that played out over a period of a few years during the last recession....house sales and mortgage approvals have fallen off a cliff...and without interventionalism of the govt. that just pushes the problems further down the line, we would have seen more repossesions next year than during the last recession. We will certainly get close to early 90's respossessions despite the policies.

 

So even with nulabours aggressive public sector non-job creation scheme over the last decade, which skews the competitiveness of our economy, we are STILL going to have a huge unemployment problem.

 

MY point is nulabour were left with a very strong economy, which was taking prudent steps after itself coming out of the other side of a recession. I'm not a tory fanboy or anything, i just liked the way Ken Clarke as chancellor was managing the economy and i remember a period of moderation and affordability before labour had a majority and mandate to push through some horrible policies and outdated economic dogma. If clarke's period as chancellor is compared to predecessors lamont and major then it's only fair brown should be compared to clarke.

 

My point is NOT that the tories can avoid recession or are recession-free, that is clearly not the case as history has shown. But rather than the oft repeated 15% interest rates [don't forget MIRAS which many seem to have forgotten:rolleyes:] i prefer to look at the health of the economy post the early recession of the 90's and the state of the economy today pre the credit crunch inflicted recession/depression. And a comparison of an economy coming out of a recession vs an economy after enjoying a decade of boom is quite startling and more apt.

 

One of the problems with labour economic governance was that they failed to do what a prudent govt. should have done during years of false asset price prosperity fuelled by cheap credit. In other words they spent and overcommitted rather than doing the responsible thing....and now they are committed to keynesian spending and leaving huge debt obligations for future govts. and the british taxpaer. Jam today an' all that.

 

Several aspects of the economy were in a healthy and prudent position up to about 2001 under labour purely becuase labour commited to tory spending plans. Once they got that albatross off their backs the nulabour state began to take shape, the asset bubble effectively took off globally replacing the smaller dotcom bubble which burst around that time - aggressive rate cutting at select moments by central banks excabertaed rather than cooled the bubble [so see, low interest rates aren't all honey]....and as for the last six years, well we know what happened.

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[mattx]

Why did I think of teachers when I read that?

 

Because YOU know just what they are like.

Talking of which, yesterday I had to show one how to use a telephone. No lie, I had to show a teacher how to use a telephone - what buttons to press etc.