4matrix and Excel - What if

[mattwinpenny]

Hi

 

Im trying to set up a series of what if calculators for up subjects.

 

Basically, what I want to do is to:

1. Use 4 matrix p8 calculations for student

2. Work out how much each grade effects p8 score of students for subject and overall.school grades

3. Produce a calculator for each subject area, so staff can work towards a set p8 department figure

4. Automate this, so staff can just change the grades and everything else updates.

 

So far I have;

1. Worked out p8 changes for each subject by increasing/decreasing grades

2. Worked out p8 changes for whole school by increasing/decreasing subject grades

 

So my question is, what is the easiest way to set this up and what are the next steps? Is there a way to do this on 4matrix or do I need to build some custom spreadsheets.

 

Thanks

[NotSoFast]

Is the goal to create a system where staff can see what happens to subject and whole school P8 scores when they change the individual grades of certain students, so that departments can target students for intervention who will have the biggest impact on headline figures?

 

If so, I wonder if you could just duplicate the series then give heads of department access to edit their copy? I can't remember if you can give users different access to different series.

 

I do worry that there are so many factors at play in the P8 model that this kind of what if analysis is unlikely to be worth the time it takes.

[DODICT]

I'd question what you're doing here - I don't think you should be trying to drive subject performance based upon contribution to headline all in one process. I would just work on two levels subject and pupil. Use the 4 matrix estimates to provide a subject score for each student in a subject - you can easily provide a live total in excel so any changes are immediately reflected. I have done this before and added amendments as a separate total so any changes can be easily visualised. I'd suggest a subject would then look at prioritising priority pupils (e.g. PP) and those with the worst progress. Then as a cohort look for students where a basket or subject are letting them down and a separate conversation can be had at subject level to see what can be done to progress the student. The 4 Matrix progress 8 screen is great for this and you can make amendments in there now just to see what difference it makes too.

 

But deffo have a think about the purpose of this whole exercise - ignoring a significant lack of progress in history say as the student has a strong MFL grade so wouldn't effect school headlines is focusing at the wrong level for me. Get the best from the students and the headlines look after themselves !

[RootsSchImp]

What @DODICT has said here makes a lot of sense - they're definitely right that if every department focuses on maximising performance than the headlines will take care of themselves. I'd just pick up on one point because I think it's a common flaw in the way schools design tracking systems: "Prioritise those [students] with the worst progress".

 

Progress 8 estimates are the average of lots of students' progress, some of those students made more, some less and the average is in the middle. This variation is normal and natural because KS2 isn't a perfect measure of potential at KS4, so it's not accurate to assume that two kids with the same fine level at KS2 should get the same outcomes at KS4. Therefore if you're looking to maximise your overall P8 score you're better off concentrating on kids who (without extra intervention) got to around zero or slightly positive progress rather than those who are already behind. There might be other good reasons for helping those kids of course, but purely from a P8 standpoint, 'good already' is more fertile territory than 'struggling'.

 

For the same reason if you use P8 estimates (or FFT YUK!) as targets you should stop immediately as you're telling kids to stop trying as soon as they hit average.

[DODICT]

I did say prioritising and by that I mean look at them first - data should always be a starting point, the question if you like but not the final answer. I dont think its a bad way to organise a cohort in looking at those who appear to be behind 'similar' peers. I've always used a additional banding to identify those students believed to be achieving potential, slightly below, below etc and would always be looking to get everyone as making good progress and achieving their potential. Always loads of reasons why that doesnt happen and yes using a test result from when they were 11 is one variable but if we are asking the questions we can then look at making improvements.