Asteroid 2024 YR4

[6Foot2]

Link: 2024 YR4 - NASA Science

 

Asteroid 2024 YR4 is a near-Earth asteroid, meaning it is an asteroid in an orbit that brings it into Earth’s region of the Solar System. 2024 YR4 is estimated to be about 130 to 300 feet (40 – 90 meters) wide and has a very small chance of Earth impact on Dec. 22, 2032.

 

This object is of particular interest for planetary defense for two reasons: 1) it is large enough to cause localized damage in the unlikely event that it should impact Earth, and 2) while 2024 YR4 has a very small chance of Earth impact in 2032, it has surpassed the 1% impact probability threshold to warrant formal notification of the object to other U.S. government agencies involved in planetary defense as well as to the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group and to the United Nations Office of Outer Space Affairs per the International Asteroid Warning Network’s notification charter.

 

As more observations of the asteroid’s orbit are obtained, its impact probability will become better known. It is possible that 2024 YR4 will be ruled out as an impact hazard, as has happened with many other objects that have previously appeared on the NASA JPL asteroid risk list. It is also possible its impact probability will continue to rise. The latest data will continue to be made available via NASA’s automated Sentry page. Updates will also continue to be posted on NASA’s planetary defense blog.

 

Discovery

 

2024 YR4 was first reported to the Minor Planet Center – the international clearing house for small body positional measurements – by the NASA-funded Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) in Chile on January 27, 2025. ATLAS comprises several telescopes around the world and is managed by the University of Hawaii’s Institute for Astronomy

[Brixy]

Objects such as these are problematic as should they be detected on a collision course they are either (a) too large to deflect unless detected at a significant distance away (b) large enough to break into pieces, but the damage multiple pieces could cause may be worse than being hit by a single object and © small enough that we can only detect the objects when they are too close to do much about them.

 

Of course the above issues are part of the reason we want to detect them as early as possible. Catch them early and we may have time to deflect them (the further away they are the easier it becomes and the more time we have to do it). Breaking them into pieces may work if you have time to deflect the larger chunks that are created, and detect them when they are close, and you may track them to provide enough time when they swing around again.

[6Foot2]

There's always an XKCD:

 

Link: xkcd: Incoming Asteroid

 

 

Hover text: "The bottom ones are also potentially bad news for any other planets in our solar system that have been counting on Earth having a stable orbit."

[Andrew_C]

Don't look up!

[NegativeKillDeath]

I have an internal list that would qualify for the IT request of the week thread. 22nd Dec 2032 could very well be the day I get to let them know just what I think of them.

[6Foot2]

Link: Asteroid 2024 YR4: Odds of collision with Earth in 2032 have reached new high | New Scientist

 

NASA has upgraded the risk of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting Earth in 2032 to 3.1 per cent, or about a 1-in-32 chance, the highest odds yet of collision.

 

Astronomers discovered that the asteroid was barrelling towards Earth in December and it has been a focus of the world’s telescopes and space agencies ever since. As they gather more data on the asteroid’s precise orbit, astronomers have been able to calculate the likelihood of it hitting Earth with greater precision. The asteroid is thought to be between 40 and 90 metres wide and has the potential to release energy equivalent to 7.7 megatonnes of TNT should it hit Earth – enough to destroy a city.

 

According to NASA, the odds of collision in 2032 have been edging up from a 1-in-83 chance since it was first spotted. It has since moved to 1-in-67, to 1-in-53, to 1-in-43, to 1-in-38 and now to 1-in-32. The European Space Agency has slightly different odds, currently giving the asteroid a 2.81 per cent chance of collision.

 

This steady increase does not necessarily mean that the asteroid is actually more likely to hit Earth, however, and the odds may yet come down. “Just because it’s gone up in the last week, doesn’t mean that it’s going to continue to do that,” says Hugh Lewis at the University of Southampton, UK.

 

But we are running out of time to forecast the asteroid’s risk. One issue is that 2024 YR4 will fly behind the sun in April, placing it out of the view of most Earth-based telescopes. That limits how much astronomers can refine their predictions, says Lewis. “Any observations we can make between now and when it’s out of view will obviously help us to refine the orbit and to make better predictions. That doesn’t necessarily mean that it will go down before April. It could continue to go up, but still ultimately miss us.”

 

Once the asteroid does fly out of view, it is unlikely that we will gain any more information before it comes into view again in 2028. However, astronomers could comb through past data to uncover previously overlooked observations of the asteroid, which would help refine its trajectory. That process is already being undertaken by the world’s space agencies, says Lewis.

 

Crucial information on the asteroid’s size and composition will hopefully be gathered by the James Webb Space Telescope in the coming months, says Lewis. This will help us understand whether the asteroid could make it through Earth’s atmosphere intact and how large an explosion it could cause if it does make impact.

 

“That will help us determine what we need to do about it, because if it’s a stony asteroid, that’s very different from a high proportion of iron-metal asteroid,” says Lewis. An iron-rich asteroid would be worse, as a stony asteroid would potentially break up during impact. “The mass makes a huge difference in terms of the energy and whether or not the atmosphere has an effect on it.”

[PotNoodleTech]

OK all.

 

I recon we should have as much fun as possible before 2032 just incase they can't find and decent oil riggers to go up into space.

[Dos_Box]

OK all.

 

I recon we should have as much fun as possible before 2032 just incase they can't find and decent oil riggers to go up into space.

 

Are we not having a raffle to see who gets to go into the bunkers?

[Andrew_C]

I'm up for painting some targets...

 

ETA - any raffle will be decided by how many tickets you can buy!

[mthomas08]

Wonder how many IT staff are being asked to safeguard their systems from impact...

 

What can WE do to prevent this......

[6Foot2]

Wonder how many IT staff are being asked to safeguard their systems from impact...

 

What can WE do to prevent this......

 

In the unlikeley event that 2024 YR4 does impact Earth, the places most at risk of being hit lie on the red line (below)

 

[Dos_Box]

Wonder how many IT staff are being asked to safeguard their systems from impact...

 

What can WE do to prevent this......

 

There is a money making idea in this...

 

[6Foot2]

Link: 2024 YR4 - Wikipedia

 

... Calculations using the observation arc of 58 days as of 21 February 2025 find that 2024 YR4 has a 1-in-280 (0.36%) chance of impacting Earth on 22 December 2032 around 14:02 UT[7] and a 1% possibility of impacting the Moon about an hour later around 15:19 UT...

 

As more data is gathered, a better estimate of the chances of the asteroid hitting Earth can be made. It nor look very unlikey to hiit Earth (unless it is impacted, or influenced by another extra terrestrial object. That also seems unlikely.)

 

[6Foot2]

Good news (on one front) continues to roll in:

 

Link: Additional Observations Continue to Reduce Chance of Asteroid Impact in 2032 – Planetary Defense

 

Quote

Observations made overnight on Feb. 19 – 20 of asteroid 2024 YR4 have further decreased its chance of Earth impact on Dec. 22, 2032, to 0.28%. NASA’s planetary defense teams will continue to monitor the asteroid to improve our predictions of the asteroid’s trajectory. With this new data, the chance of an impact with the Moon increased slightly to 1%. The latest data will continue to be available at NASA JPL’s automated Sentry page.

[6Foot2]

Link: Latest Calculations Conclude Asteroid 2024 YR4 Now Poses No Significant Threat to Earth in 2032 and Beyond – Planetary Defense

 

Quote

NASA has significantly lowered the risk of near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4 as an impact threat to Earth for the foreseeable future. When first discovered, asteroid 2024 YR4 had a very small, but notable chance of impacting our planet in 2032. As observations of the asteroid continued to be submitted to the Minor Planet Center, experts at NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory’s (JPL’s) Center for Near-Earth Object Studies were able to calculate more precise models of the asteroid’s trajectory and now have updated its impact probability on Dec. 22, 2032 to only 0.004% and found there is no significant potential for this asteroid to impact our planet for the next century. The latest observations have further reduced the uncertainty of its future trajectory, and the range of possible locations the asteroid could be on Dec. 22, 2032, has moved farther away from the Earth.

 

There still remains a very small chance for asteroid 2024 YR4 to impact the Moon on Dec. 22, 2032. That probability is currently 1.7%...