Malaysia Airlines MH17 Lost Over Ukraine - Shot Down?

[CAM]

33,000 feet is a completely acceptable and standard altitude for commercial aircraft to fly. I've been on many long-haul flights where the altitude was lower due to other flights in the vicinity or adverse weather conditions.

 

My recommendation for action by the western world would be for the FAA and European equivalents to ban all airline flights in Russian airspace due to safety concerns until full compliance is provided by Russia in the investigation, and all SAM batteries and Russian military personnel (we know they are there and they know that we know they are there) are withdrawn from Ukraine and the border. This would essentially stop most all commercial traffic including delivery of mail and goods to Russia or out of Russia if they did not comply. No UN sanctions would be required to put this in place, but it would cripple Russia.

 

That would be absurd. There are no grounds at all to ban flights within Russian airspace.

[Hefferzzzz]

That would be absurd. There are no grounds at all to ban flights within Russian airspace.

 

Apart from Russia acting like an absolute @rse, being complicit in the murder of 298 civilians and anexing another countries territory. The sooner that posturing insecure little Putin gets thrown out of power the better off we will all be.

[pcstru]

Apart from Russia acting like an absolute @rse, being complicit in the murder of 298 civilians and anexing another countries territory. The sooner that posturing insecure little Putin gets thrown out of power the better off we will all be.

Why are they complicit? We sell and supply weapons to many groups and countries. Are we complicit in the murder of Palestinian children because we supply Israel with equipment? Surely if it is "murder" then there must be motive and it is the people who actually fired the weapon who are responsible. If suppliers are to be complicit then we are all complicit in murder.

[CAM]

Because it's big enemy Russia. Never mind the US shooting down an Iranian airliner deliberately, or the US equipment being used by ISIS to slaughter the Iraqi military, or the unwarranted US invasion of Iraq on a pack of lies that destabilised the entire region by replacing one evil with another. Or the US looking the other way as Israel racks up more civilian casualties then MH17 in a few days whilst the world is distracted and commit genocide against Palestinians without a shred of economic sanctions in place.

 

No all that can be forgiven because Russia is evil and we must return to having an axis of evil staring at the US with an EU buffer in the middle. With any luck it will annoy China too and our US-led profits can be saved as we don't have to trade with them either.

[seawolf]

Because it's big enemy Russia. Never mind the US shooting down an Iranian airliner deliberately, or the US equipment being used by ISIS to slaughter the Iraqi military, or the unwarranted US invasion of Iraq on a pack of lies that destabilised the entire region by replacing one evil with another. Or the US looking the other way as Israel racks up more civilian casualties then MH17 in a few days whilst the world is distracted and commit genocide against Palestinians without a shred of economic sanctions in place.

 

No all that can be forgiven because Russia is evil and we must return to having an axis of evil staring at the US with an EU buffer in the middle. With any luck it will annoy China too and our US-led profits can be saved as we don't have to trade with them either.

 

Crikey, the conspiracists are flocking like the salmon of Capistrano.

[localzuk]

Crikey, the conspiracists are flocking like the salmon of Capistrano.

 

Surely you mean shoaling?

[CAM]

^There is always room for pedantry.

[seawolf]

Why are they complicit? We sell and supply weapons to many groups and countries. Are we complicit in the murder of Palestinian children because we supply Israel with equipment? Surely if it is "murder" then there must be motive and it is the people who actually fired the weapon who are responsible. If suppliers are to be complicit then we are all complicit in murder.

 

Well, since it was most likely Russians trained in the use of the SA-11 missile system that brought down MH17, your example would only be valid if it were US or UK citizens that were dropping the bombs and shooting the guns in Palestine. That and the fact that you see the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as a completely one sided affair where the Hamas and all Palestinians are just innocent victims who wouldn't hurt a fly.

 

Besides that, great analogy.

Edited July 22, 2014 by seawolf

[pcstru]

Well, since it was most likely Russians trained in the use of the SA-11 missile system that brought down MH17, your example would only be valid if it were US or UK citizens that were dropping the bombs and shooting the guns in Palestine.

My response was Russian culpability in the supply of weapons. We also supply training on weapons systems we sell and that sometimes includes "on the ground observers" which can be during actual live, in anger, use. The evidence of who actually pulled the trigger and what they thought they were shooting at is not yet in - or do you have secret squirrel access to that too?

That and the fact that you see the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as a completely one sided affair where the Hamas and all Palestinians are just innocent victims who wouldn't hurt a fly.

I'm surprised you manage to read so much into so few words. Next time I want to know what I think, I'll certainly know where to come.

[seawolf]

My response was Russian culpability in the supply of weapons. We also supply training on weapons systems we sell and that sometimes includes "on the ground observers" which can be during actual live, in anger, use. The evidence of who actually pulled the trigger and what they thought they were shooting at is not yet in...

 

A drunken separatist wouldn't have a snowballs chance in hades of hitting an aircraft flying at 33,000 feet with an SA-11 missile system without extensive, specialised training in the use of that equipment. Which means it is highly unlikely it was a separatist that targeted the plane. Maybe they let the drunk separatist hit the button right at the pointy end. That's entirely possible.

 

- or do you have secret squirrel access to that too?

 

No, my secret squirrel clearance is no longer current. I do have several years worth of experience with SAM systems and associated radar technologies, including those used by Russia and other former Soviet states though.

 

I'm surprised you manage to read so much into so few words. Next time I want to know what I think, I'll certainly know where to come.

 

You said "murder" when describing the actions by Israel. Did you mean to say something else?

[edutech4schools]

@seawolf are you getting into another squabble. Think we should calm things down and talk about religion or apple.

[seawolf]

@seawolf are you getting into another squabble. Think we should calm things down and talk about religion or apple.

 

C'mon, I'm on a

[pcstru]

A drunken separatist wouldn't have a snowballs chance in hades of hitting an aircraft flying at 33,000 feet with an SA-11 missile system without extensive, specialised training in the use of that equipment. Which means it is highly unlikely it was a separatist that targeted the plane. Maybe they let the drunk separatist hit the button right at the pointy end. That's entirely possible.

Many things are possible, including that the separatists do have people that do know how to operate the equipment - perhaps because they were part of Ukraine forces before they decided to 'defect', perhaps because they have been trained by the Russians.

No, my secret squirrel clearance is no longer current. I do have several years worth of experience with SAM systems and associated radar technologies, including those used by Russia and other former Soviet states though.

Good for you. We are all, I'm sure, suitably impressed.

You said "murder" when describing the actions by Israel. Did you mean to say something else?

You should perhaps note the quotes I used. The context was I was replying to a post which used the word. I think the word is inadvisable at this point. I very much doubt anyone got up in the morning and said "let's shoot down an unarmed civilian airliner today". The situation probably has that in common with Iran Air Flight 655.

[seawolf]

I very much doubt anyone got up in the morning and said "let's shoot down an unarmed civilian airliner today". The situation probably has that in common with Iran Air Flight 655.

 

Finally, something plausible and reasonable said.

 

Although, the actions by both the separatists and Russia following the shooting down of a plane with 298 people on board make it pretty clear they don't really care either.

[pcstru]

No, my secret squirrel clearance is no longer current. I do have several years worth of experience with SAM systems and associated radar technologies, including those used by Russia and other former Soviet states though.

It begs the question - could you fire it. (link SAM Simulator models old Soviet surface-to-air weapons).

[seawolf]

It begs the question - could you fire it. (link SAM Simulator models old Soviet surface-to-air weapons).

 

Sure, I could fire it with a little remedial training because of my previous training and knowledge. I could not set it up in the first place though without much more extensive training on this particular weapons system. That would normally require months of intensive training for the average air defence operator candidate, who would be a brighter bulb than the average soldier in the first place.

 

Here is the thing though. Firstly, setting up the system to begin with takes a lot of specific knowledge and training. Not just anyone can do it. You could train someone on how to turn on the radars, engage a target and fire a missile in at least a week of training if the person is of at least average intelligence (for the general population, not the average grunt). The person doing the training would have to be highly knowledgeable on the system though to have a chance to train an operator reasonably. Additionally, an unskilled operator would be far more likely to launch a salvo of missiles at the target particularly if they believed it to be a military target. That didn't happen and only one well-placed missile was launched bringing down the plane. Since there were also Russian aircraft in the vicinity (being near the border), for the Russians to allow just indiscriminate firing that could bring down their aircraft seems to be highly unlikely and beyond stupid even for them.

 

So, the system was setup by someone with a lot of knowledge and training. The system could have been fired by someone with short very intensive training, but the trainer would have to be highly knowledgeable. The system appears to have been used quite expertly in targeting the aircraft, other than the (hopefully) mis-identification of it (rather than intentional targeting). The Russians would not want their own aircraft downed because of completely incompetent operators shooting in the blind with no knowledge of what they are shooting at, which puts barely trained operator as a suspect proposition. These things point in the direction of trained Russian personnel. Could it have been an ex-Ukraine military air defence soldier? It's possible. Not as likely though and the next issue that I point out below makes it even more likely Russia was directly involved.

 

Secondly, there is a great difference between how a skilled and experienced operator would use the system vs. a quickly trained grunt. A skilled operator would know that when the SA-11 radar is turned on to track and target aircraft, it lights up the electromagnetic spectrum like a flood light in pitch black. Every second the radar is on, the operator and his SAM site is a sitting duck for an anti-radar missile or a bomber. Leaving the system turned on for more than a couple of minutes is broadcasting to the enemy "Come bomb me! Come bomb me!". That being the case, the way SAM systems are almost always used is that they receive information from a central command station on targets based on collated radar data from various (non-SAM) sites. In some cases, a remote radar feed is relayed directly to the SAM site operator if their equipment is sophisticated enough (the Chinese and Russians both have such systems as do most western militaries). The central command station would inform the SAM operator that a target is nearing their position and the SAM operator would then fire up the radar to begin directly tracking and targeting the target(s). The target is engaged and fired on. The radar is then immediately turned off, and if it is a mobile SAM site the operators will then pack up and move to another location so they aren't targeted for a retaliatory attack. My particular expertise in this area is in targeting and destroying SAM systems, and a HARM or ALARM missile makes pretty short work of them. An experienced SAM operator knows they are a sitting duck leaving that radar on.

 

So, leaving the SA-11 radar on just waiting for a target to come your way would most likely result in the SAM site being destroyed particularly since the SAM system in question was an enemy site in Ukraine territory. No, the most likely scenario is the SAM operator received information that there was a target or targets in the area and they then fired up the radar and fired on the target. Where would this radar information likely come from? You connect the dots.

 

Unless its really the Ukraine military that shot down the plane, which appears highly unlikely based on what's been revealed about the incident so far, Russia is most likely far more involved in this shoot down than they want anyone to know. Notice that I used language such as likely, highly likely, and probable throughout this analysis. I don't have the intel in my hand to review, so I could be off the mark. But, some of the theories I've heard bandied about are extremely unlikely and espoused by individuals with no idea of what they are talking about.

Edited July 23, 2014 by seawolf

[pcstru]

Additionally, an unskilled operator would be far more likely to launch a salvo of missiles at the target particularly if they believed it to be a military target. That didn't happen and only one well-placed missile was launched bringing down the plane.

Likely (to fire a salvo) is not definite - they could easily have fired just one but I'm not even aware of any evidence that definitively states only one missile was fired. Do you have a link?

 

The rest is a lot of speculation about what trained/skilled people might know vs untrained. I'm not trained on a BUK, but I know an AA radar advertises its presence when lit up. Nothing in your speculation is definitive, it is just ... speculation. It's not even as if there hasn't been time for separatist troops to go off and train on systems, the war has been going on for many months, adequate time for groups to nip off for extensive training on systems that might be coming their way. They seem to be driving around and shooting from T90 tanks. That's probably easier than a missile system to operate at all, but needs trained people to operate them efficiently and keep them running. Your portrayal of the separatists as a drunken rabble seems to be some way from what we actually see. They are keeping the reasonably well trained and equipped Ukrainian forces at bay in large swathes of the east. How exactly are these rank amateurs managing that?

 

Unless its really the Ukraine military that shot down the plane, which appears highly unlikely based on what's been revealed about the incident so far, Russia is most likely far more involved in this shoot down than they want anyone to know. Notice that I used language such as likely, highly likely, and probable throughout this analysis. I don't have the intel in my hand to review, so I could be off the mark. But, some of the theories I've heard bandied about are extremely unlikely and espoused by individuals with no idea of what they are talking about.

 

The US is toning down the rhetoric because they have absolutely no evidence of Russian involvement. That doesn't mean they aren't involved but the US operates significant intelligence assets in the area - from Satellite reconnaissance to assets on the ground to ships in the Black Sea. They were operating F16's out of Poland in March. The fact that they are unable to come up with any evidence of Russian involvement, while it doesn't definitively say there wasn't direct involvement of Russian troops, it does make it somewhat improbable. "creating the conditions" as they put it - well, they created the conditions to shoot down the Iranian airliner. If they do find Russians involved, I expect they will be issuing medals to them soon.

[featured_spectre]

The whole thing is a debarcle from start to finish.

 

News crews have been contaminating the site from the moment they heard about it. Malaysian Airlines stocks have plunged around 90% (FYI, ideal time to invest in them as they are slowly creeping up again). And lastly, nobody knows yet who was involved. Flying over a warzone is pretty daft in my opinion, however they should have been at least 30'000ft up so Surface to Air missiles would have had a harder time locking on.

[seawolf]

The rest is a lot of speculation about what trained/skilled people might know vs untrained. I'm not trained on a BUK, but I know an AA radar advertises its presence when lit up. Nothing in your speculation is definitive, it is just ... speculation.

 

It would only be speculation if I had no knowledge of these sort of things. But, I do.

 

 

It's not even as if there hasn't been time for separatist troops to go off and train on systems, the war has been going on for many months, adequate time for groups to nip off for extensive training on systems that might be coming their way.

 

Yes, it is possible, but the war has only been going on since the spring and the SAM systems have only entered the arena recently, which makes it less likely. A more plausible answer might be that there are ex-Russian military soldiers fighting for the separatists or covert Russian soldiers fighting for them. Many countries have done this in the past, it certainly wouldn't be the first time.

 

They are keeping the reasonably well trained and equipped Ukrainian forces at bay in large swathes of the east. How exactly are these rank amateurs managing that?

 

Exactly.

 

 

The US is toning down the rhetoric because they have absolutely no evidence of Russian involvement.

 

Or, because they are going to allow Russia to save face as long as the Russian government hangs the separatists out to dry. The fact is that governments make all kinds of decisions like that which are perhaps morally questionable, but done for political or economic reasons in order to prevent wars and keep the status quo, etc.. It's happened many times in the past.

[pcstru]

It would only be speculation if I had no knowledge of these sort of things. But, I do.

It is speculation because you do not have the actual facts, what has actually happened on the ground. You are making a lot of assumptions - such as your one missile fired. Being knowledgeable about systems doesn't turn your speculation into fact.

Yes, it is possible, but the war has only been going on since the spring and the SAM systems have only entered the arena recently, which makes it less likely. A more plausible answer might be that there are ex-Russian military soldiers fighting for the separatists or covert Russian soldiers fighting for them. Many countries have done this in the past, it certainly wouldn't be the first time.

Again, speculation. If there are Russian units in play in the theatre, US intelligence must be failing miserably not to be able to claim to have any evidence (comms traffic, satellite images, ground radar tracks of traffic crossing the border etc) . Perhaps they are too busy watching the facebook pages of their own citizens these days but I doubt it.

Or, because they are going to allow Russia to save face as long as the Russian government hangs the separatists out to dry. The fact is that governments make all kinds of decisions like that which are perhaps morally questionable, but done for political or economic reasons in order to prevent wars and keep the status quo, etc.. It's happened many times in the past.

More speculation. There is no evidence that the Russians are about to abandon the separatists. It is the US is backing down while EU members are bickering about each others financial interests. Putin already has Crimea in his pocket with little effective response from the west and he seems to be coming out of this with the EU and USA looking completely ineffective.

[seawolf]

LOL. Well, I'm going to speculate about beer now. Much more entertaining.

[pcstru]

LOL. Well, I'm going to speculate about beer now.

But will anyone be able to tell the difference.

[seawolf]

But will anyone be able to tell the difference.

 

Why of course not, I'm an Aussie after all. Right? A real fair dinkum bloke you are there mate. Good on ya.

[Arthur]

Pro-Russian rebels shoot down two Ukrainian fighter jets « Reuters

[6Foot2]

Link: Tracking Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 - WSJ.com

 

Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 was flying at 33,000 feet in airspace that Ukrainian air-traffic control said was safe. After the plane was shot down, the airline and other carriers diverted traffic away from the area.

 

Explore the routes Flight 17 followed in the months leading up to the crash, on the day of the crash and in the days after. You can also see the paths of other flights in the immediate vicinity at the same time of the crash.

 

Note: Part of the flight tracks were not covered by Flightradar24, including areas of Iran, Turkmenistan, and the Indian Ocean.

 

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