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Hi Andy,

 

The most important lesson to learn about statistics and the one schools, in my experience often often overlook, is that they're a powerful way to predict the performance of groups and a useless way to predict the performance of individuals. Indeed, the usual way targets are set in schools: ks2 = x so target = y is worse than useless because the way that target is derived is: in a set of pupils with ks2 x in high performing schools the median grade was y, in other words lots of pupils did better and lots of pupils did worse. By making targets = y you focus attention on pupils attaining less than y, even though lots of pupils got less than y in good schools. You don't focus on pupils achieving y even though lots of pupils in good schools did better. In other words, many pupils below target aren't underachieving, but many pupils on target are. To quote Indiana Jones: your stick is too long, you're digging in the wrong place.

 

So what's a better way? Teachers set targets. The objection I most commonly hear to this is 'our teacher expectations are too low'. People base their expectations on what's happened in the past, so if your school is looking to improve on past performance this will always be the case. As a school leader your challenge is convince your staff that because of changes your SLT is implementing, future performance will be higher. Teacher set targets are a way of testing if that message has been successfully delivered. You therefore shouldn't think of target setting as a single event, but rather part of a conversation with your staff about how well you are improving your school.

 

An often overlooked, but vital, part of this equation is performance management of teachers. If teachers are judged (or think they will be judged) on the number of students who hit their targets then they have a strong incentive to make those targets low. This is therefore a self defeating form of PM. A system based on progress, where it's made abundantly clear that targets are inconsequential means an incentive to set higher targets as these may lead to greater progress.

 

Good luck in the course,

 

Ed

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