I posted the old URL to the Deployment Wizard, You should really use this one as it gives you the option as depending on weather you have an W14/W15...
Yes, sometimes a bit hit and miss here, although we have since deployed HotFix KB2748246 to our Windows 7 clients and the problem has been resolved....
It's not even letting you connect to the Online Service... and it should do! (normal stuff..) I need to investigate why your having issues connecting...