You're thinking from a schoo/SMB point there. Those prices for a large enterprise would likely get a quick nod as part of a project to ensure network speed for the next X years.
Yes you're right. After all this is a forum primarily for educational establishments, so I am talking in context
And as for 1 computer per child. Sure, it may be a decade, but the number of machines in schools is ever increasing. The government goal of using VLEs is forcing this. Without 1 pc per child, VLEs in school become kinda pointless. And out of school, even more so.
Again I agree, at least a decade is realistic. I was getting the impression people were thinking in the next few years.
Cost wise, it isn't that extreme to see it happening. The advent of the cheap UMPC removes some of the issues, such as storage space and cost. I can't remember if it was the Dell or HP model which charges it's battery in 90 minutes. Sure, we need bulk battery charges to be brought out for these PC's but there is no reason why this won't happen very soon.
Mobility will play a big role, as I believe laptops are outselling desktops with the gap increasing every year. I often hear it's because most customers say laptops are more stylish than having a tower in their front room and they'd be right!
I think very view organisations won't have implemented 10Gbps until the end of 5 years. Practically every server you can buy now comes with single or dual 1Gbps Ethernet, but the cost of 10Gbps is so much at the moment, you'd be better off buying additional servers to load balance through a 1Gbps switch.
Take the HP 3400cl-24G. This is a 20 port gigabit switch costing around £1800.
The 10Gbps fibre modules vary: J8173A (£1800), J8175A (£1300), J8176A (£4800). These prices are what the modules cost each, so you'd need at least 2, plus the fibre itself.
You can pick up the HP 1800-24G - a 24 port gigabit switch for £240. The gigabit fibre modules also vary: J4858C (£160), J4859C (£400), J4860C (£2200).
I have 2 3400s, 2 2900s and 2 5400s. All support 10Gb and the 5400s are already using the 10Gb modules you mentioned.
Intel are getting very excited they reckon soon thier 2 port 10Gb card will be close if not the same price as thier 4 port 1Gb equivilant card so in theory you are getting 20Gb for the price of 4Gb
that's a tad optimistic....the quad port gigbit copper adapter is 400-500 from what i remember, and atm intels xf sr dual port PCIe card is about 1600 quid....so that's a long way to go before a PCIe based card is deemed 'affordable'. 400 quids for a single port 10gbe card and 600-800 for a dual port version would be a competitive price imo.
it would also mean dual and quad port 1gbps server adapters coming down into the 100-200 range....and i dont mean d-link.