YES, I probably am over=estimating. But only in as much as you are underestimating. People do not spend £1000 on a piece of tin just to surf facebook. People have other hobbies and interest that are wide and verid and the computer in some way compliments. This is even more true for the sub-20yrs generation who have grown up with modern computing.
No, you are over-estimating what they do. Having repaired, advised on, or plain out purchased the computers of about 30% of the staff in our school, I would have to say that every one of them fits well within the 'average' grouping. The average user is not someone who spends their time creating apps, editing photos (past red eye removal etc...), or making hollywood movies...
No I'm not. What I am saying is that I have seen nothing yet that warrants a change in paradigm. The desktop model works quiet well. I don't believe that the cloud model is the panacia the media would have us believe it is. It's a solution to a neche problem, it may gow in popularity. If it does it will be part of a wider solution that includes desktops, tv convergance, mobile phones, etc.
I'm saying that your view is shortsighted and based on current tech, not based on the way tech changes. 20 years ago, having the amount of computers we do now was seen as absurd...
No we won't doing things the same as we d now. I for one am looking forward to seeing how things progress and change. I think the mobile market is the one to watch. Smaller laptops, more powerful smartphones. But even then some applications will always be more convinent using the power and storage of a local desktop.
No, we do not need a desktop OS - that is the point. Stop tying yourself to the present! Think about what IT was like a decade ago. 20 years ago, 30 years ago. Things change very rapidly. In 10 years time, do you really think we'll still be doing things in exactly the same way we do now? No.