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Jokes/Interweb Things Thread, He's obviosly done his maths! in Fun Stuff; This relates to the bungee jumper whose elastic band broke plunging her into the Zambesi. "The bungee has proven to ...
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    He's obviosly done his maths!

    This relates to the bungee jumper whose elastic band broke plunging her into the Zambesi.

    "The bungee has proven to be a very viable operation considering that more than 50,000 tourists jump on it every year," Lubinda said. "It has been in operation for 10 years. This is the first time I am hearing of an incident. The probability of an incident is one in 500,000 jumps."

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    ha ha!

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    Pottsey's Avatar
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    Am I missing something or did I mess up the math? What is so funny?
    50,000 jumps per year for 10 years = 500,000 over the event lifetime. One incident in 10 years = 1 in 500,000 jumps.

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    Mcshammer_dj's Avatar
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    Well that reassures me no end. So according to his logic it will be totally safe for another 10 years!!!!

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    lol, I can just imagine the safety recommendation... "Cord must be replaced every 499,999 jumps"

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    Not a bad safety record considering some snap around the 200k mark. Would never do it unless it was a brand spanking new cord

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    Pottsey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mcshammer_dj View Post
    Well that reassures me no end. So according to his logic it will be totally safe for another 10 years!!!!
    Why wouldn’t it be? It’s been safe for the past 10years so the odds seem very good to me that it will be safe for the next 10 years. Perhaps longer if they now check the cord more often.
    Of course its odds so its not 100% safe but about as safe as you can get at 1 in half a million. EDIT: Isn’t that better odds then most medication people wouldn’t think twice about taking.
    Last edited by Pottsey; 9th January 2012 at 02:27 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pottsey View Post
    Am I missing something or did I mess up the math? What is so funny?
    50,000 jumps per year for 10 years = 500,000 over the event lifetime. One incident in 10 years = 1 in 500,000 jumps.
    I was amused because he has just created this statistic on the spot, if asked the day before the event would he have said 'well we've never had a breakage so it'll probably last forever'

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    500,000 jumps in 10 years would be 137 every day, or one every 4 1/2 minutes based on a 10 hour working day.

    Is he sure he hasn't just pulled that number out of his arse?

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    Mcshammer_dj's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jamman960 View Post
    lol, I can just imagine the safety recommendation... "Cord must be replaced every 499,999 jumps"
    You are 499,999 in the queue (give or take)
    Last edited by Mcshammer_dj; 9th January 2012 at 03:44 PM.

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    Pottsey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hokalus View Post
    500,000 jumps in 10 years would be 137 every day, or one every 4 1/2 minutes based on a 10 hour working day.

    Is he sure he hasn't just pulled that number out of his arse?
    Can more then one person jump at once? Still when you put it like you have that seems like a lot of people even with 2 or 3 jumping at once. Surely they most have lost some days due to weather and other reasons.

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    LosOjos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pottsey View Post
    Why wouldn’t it be? It’s been safe for the past 10years so the odds seem very good to me that it will be safe for the next 10 years. Perhaps longer if they now check the cord more often.
    Of course its odds so its not 100% safe but about as safe as you can get at 1 in half a million. EDIT: Isn’t that better odds then most medication people wouldn’t think twice about taking.
    Because one run of events does not make for an accurate statistic. It's just an example of journalistic filler to take up page space. For instance, based on this cord breaking after 500k uses, you wouldn't then say that the cord has a life of 500k uses immediately. You'd need multiple tests on multiple cables made to the same standards, then after a given number of tests, you'd take the shortest life of any of the tests and reduce it by whatever is deemed a reasonably safe level; then you'd have good grounds for a reliable figure.

    Having said that, statistics can say whatever you want them to. Scratch cards claim you have [approx] a 1 in 5 chance of winning. I've bought one every week for the past year, and have won maybe 3 times, i.e. 1 in 17.3 - nowhere near the officially quoted statistic.
    Last edited by LosOjos; 9th January 2012 at 04:02 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by LosOjos View Post
    Having said that, statistics can say whatever you want them to. Scratch cards claim you have [approx] a 1 in 5 chance of winning. I've bought one every week for the past year, and have won maybe 3 times, i.e. 1 in 17.3 - nowhere near the officially quoted statistic.
    So if I buy 10 Scratch Cards at the same time - Am I, statistically, going to win twice?

    As for Bungee Jumping - It's not my idea of fun and I don't trust the ropes to not snap
    As for doing a bungee jump over cooc-infested waters - there is more chance of Myself and Mr Frosty having a holiday in the lands of Mr S A Tan...

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    could be worse....
    from the 1997 Darwin awards

    (13 July 1997, Virginia) Eric A. Barcia, a 22-year-old Reston, VA resident, was found dead yesterday after he used bungee cords to jump off a 70-foot railroad trestle, police said.

    The fast food worker taped a number of bungee cords together and strapped one end around his foot. Barcia had the foresight to anchor the other end to the trestle at Lake Accotink Park, and he even remembered to measure the length of the bungee cords to make sure that they were a few feet short of the 70 foot drop. He proceeded to fall headfirst from the trestle, and hit the pavement 70 feet below several seconds later.

    Fairfax County police said "The stretched length of the cord that he had assembled was greater than the distance between the trestle and the ground." Perhaps the deceased fast food worker should have stuck to the line, "Do you want fries with that?"

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    LosOjos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gatt View Post
    So if I buy 10 Scratch Cards at the same time - Am I, statistically, going to win twice?
    Nope - that was my point statistics say you should but we all know statistics are really just an educated guess



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