Will consoles die in 5 - 10 years?

[Michael]

I came across this article. May be of interesting discussion -

Former Vice President of Xbox Europe Sandy Duncan has cast his doubts on the long term future of the console market, claiming consoles as we know them will die out with a decade.

Speaking in an interview, he said: "There is a definite convergence of other devices, such as set top boxes. There's hardly any technology difference between some hard disc video recorders and an Xbox 360, for example.

"In fact in 5 to 10 years I don't think you'll have any box at all under your TV, most of this stuff will be virtualized as web services by your content provider".

My personal opinion is I think Sandy Duncan is wrong. Even though web services are becoming more common, you still need a device to receive the web service in some form, be it portable or not. Consoles are becoming more and more like PCs offering other tools/facilities, all in one stylish unit under your TV set.

[CyberNerd]

Sounds like MS are just pissed because they failed to predict the viability of a future technology again (blueray). Maybe MS are backtracking, DX10 seems to be going nowhere -fast. I always thought that there would be a market for consoles because it helps restrict piracy, thats why this gen of consoles were developed, I guess pay-per use may change this.

[Michael]

And as well as technology advances, a friend of mine has (or should I say had) an XBOX 360. We experienced the red ring of death first hand! He was extremely cheesed off to say the least and reacted very anti Microsoft. I don't blame him to be honest!

I think there will always be a market for consoles in the near future, as it is (in my opinion) a true plug 'n play experience. No drivers, no special software, just switch on and you're there. Ready to surf or play a game. PCs still complicate the simplest of tasks.

[CyberNerd]

He was extremely cheesed off to say the least and reacted very anti Microsoft.

What astonished me was the amount of pro-MS posts on this forum about similar experiences with 'RROD' to the effect of how great MS were by replacing the product ! I guess ICT techs get accustomed to it.

a true plug 'n play experience. No drivers, no special software, just switch on and you're there. Ready to surf or play a game.

That sounds like an Open Standards talk to me !

[torledo]

Sounds like MS are just pissed because they failed to predict the viability of a future technology again (blueray). Maybe MS are backtracking, DX10 seems to be going nowhere -fast. I always thought that there would be a market for consoles because it helps restrict piracy, thats why this gen of consoles were developed, I guess pay-per use may change this.

if anything bluray is the technology going nowhere...or rather the
technology nobody really cares much for.

To be fair to ms they were hedging their bets somewhat with the whole format war by not including a player from either ina x360 revision

Ms really have they're eyes on another prize and this is where
i disagree with michael..

Ms have done very well in pushing their iptv platform as a delivery
platform for triple play services provided by cable companies

These companies and the incumbet telco providers are building
out they're core networks to deliver on demand video, with MS technology as key in the application layer.

MS won't need to mess around selling black boxes, they're presence can be purely in the software domain.

Video as a service is a dead cert, and the idea of the ip enabled home is already taking hold. Yes, you'll still need a box of some sort but that'll be the multiservice modem/router. Every other application can be hosted....voice, video, digital recording, file storage even video gaming. 5-10 years from now the latest displays will also be ip enabled able to present video games to the home user. All the user would need would be wireless controllers or whatever the human computer interaction device of choice will be for gameplay. With the games running on centralized servers. The content delivery networks won't be the problem, the speed at which FTTx can be delivered on a national scale will be the key determiner of whether this idea can truly succeed.

[Michael]

What astonished me was the amount of pro-MS posts on this forum about similar experiences with 'RROD' to the effect of how great MS were by replacing the product ! I guess ICT techs get accustomed to it.

Standing back and thinking about it, I find it amusing that Microsoft built in the RROD feature altogether. When my mate turns his console on, it's the only thing that works now!

That sounds like an Open Standards talk to me !

Yes you're right, but I think that's the way it should be. Us IT specialists are fine, but I feel there are many people whereby this approach would suit really well. Especially the elderly or people with special needs (for example).

if anything bluray is the technology going nowhere...or rather the
technology nobody really cares much for.

I disagree it's going no where. It's made progress killing off HD-DVD, but the bigger competition (at the moment) is still DVD. In years to come however, DVD will eventually be dropped, however I don't think Blu-ray will have the market to itself. Web services, IPTV or Video on Demand (whatever you want to call it) will also be on the table. I love the competition. It'll drive prices down and that's great for the consumer

As for games running centrally, I am not so sure about that. The PS3 especially is a very impressive console (technically) and is the most powerful out of this generation; however, even with some form of virtualisation to have (for example) the power of 1,000 PS3s in one box/server, I don't know how realistic that really is. I think it would require some new revolutionary design!

[tech_guy]

In five years time Microsoft will be releasing the Xbox Edge....

;-)

[CyberNerd]

In five years time Microsoft will be releasing the Xbox Edge....

;-)

oh crap, I just cum in my pants.

[elsiegee40]

I think our careers have made us justly cynical...

we subscribe to the "if ain't broke, don't fix it" school and know better than to leap onto the latest technological bandwagon until enough time has passed to see if it actually works.

Like many I'll be waiting to see what happens...

[localzuk]

It all depends on network speeds really. Will the internet be sufficiently robust to support this high bandwidth concept? It seems that our internet connections are increasing in speed but the bandwidth required is increasing also.

The other issue is whether people will be happy not owning something physical.

[torledo]

Anyone who thinks that physical media will die out in 5-10 years is in the wrong job.

Duncan also seems to think that we'll all go out and buy new TVs that accept these new formats. I certainly won't. I'll happily use my bog standard analogue CRT with xbox media centre until it fails.

People are replacing they're CRT's with LCD's, people are upgrading to HD ready displays....and no doubt people will upgrade to the next LED technology or to a must have killer app. That's the way things are....technology doesn't stagnate and people continue to talk with their wallets. As you said eventually you'll be forced to upgrade when something breaks.

The main purpose of removable media is to have something that is tranferrable, something you own, and something for backup and reliability.

I'd trust massively scalable storage and backup networks of major service providers over a disc that can be scratched or lost or a backup copy that can be corrupted or stolen if on a home computer. As for ownership, we're already using the concept of owning something without having the physical media. And for easily transferable, the content you own can be accessed from anywhere with an internet connection. And when sufficient numbers of the new format TV displays are available the need for black boxes under the TV will no longer be necessary. There are a number of factors that will determine whether that happens in 10 or 15 years from now if ever, but it's not a bad prediction.

[flyinghaggis]

The way things are going just now with PC gaming (DRM, net based authorization when you run a program, limited number of installs, cost of hardware, compatability issues, lack of any exclusive software) I think it's more likely that the PC will die off as a gaming platform in the next 5-10 years!

[EduTech]

It is true, Microsoft are trying to do it so you dont have to go to a shop and buy a physical game you can get it all from home. as you all said by doing that you need to have certain things to be much much better before that can work fully.

They have started of by making old games available to download, Full Fetured HD movies etc. so there making a move.

and in years to come they will be putting the xbox 360 games online so you can just download them and buy them using MS Points. obviously be allot more then just a few points.

But thats the way there are looking to go, but no need to worry its going to be a good few years yet.

I have a PS3 and i only use it for the Blueray tbh.. must be me but i cant see much differant from HD and Blue Ray..

James

[ninjabeaver]

claiming consoles as we know them will die out with a decade.

This is the section to focus on. Its such a massive generalisation. He's talking that in 10 years time that consoles will have evolved and current ones will be car boot pickups.. This is so true, but so will have TV's, Computers, Cars etc. I'd love to see an all in one unit of console, computer, TV built into a little tiny projector that looks like an ice cube and projects an image in 3D above it.

I do believe that everything will be pumped to us down whatever they call telephone lines in 10 years time.

Bournemouth is already starting to get the 100mbit cabling installed, and it wont be long before everything is connected. Even now, in the City of Norwich near me wireless floods the city.

In 10 years the possibilities are enormous.

[Trapper]

I think they will thrive, but perhaps become more a Media Centre PC. Gaming, multimedia, internet in one box.

I've never been a fan of consoles, I find the controllers to insensitive compared to a keyboard and mouse.

PCs are still IMHO the best gaming platforms for control and graphics.