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General Chat Thread, Derren Brown - Lottery explanation in General; I'm watching this show as I write this - what a pile of horse dung. Complete nonsense. Discuss....
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    mattx's Avatar
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    Derren Brown - Lottery explanation

    I'm watching this show as I write this - what a pile of horse dung. Complete nonsense.
    Discuss.

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    Little-Miss's Avatar
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    cant be arsed to watch it....watchin QI instead....so, whats his amazing explanation then?

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    rad
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    Quote Originally Posted by Little-Miss View Post
    cant be arsed to watch it....watchin QI instead....so, whats his amazing explanation then?
    Would also like to know the answer, I reckon it wont be properly explained.

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    teddybear's Avatar
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    After watching it, it shows that he didn't actually do much to get the numbers..... It was 24 random people closing their eyes and writing down random numbers.

    Their supposed collective thoughts gave them the numbers to write.

    The numbers were then added up to get an average.

    So, technically, Derren Brown didn't get the numbers, the 24 other folk did.

    One final thought, if I was one of the 24 people I'd be meeting up with the others each week to get more numbers!

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    Little-Miss's Avatar
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    tut, what a load of rubbish...

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    He's not gonna give away the real way he tricked people... That would be shooting himself in the foot.

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    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear View Post
    After watching it, it shows that he didn't actually do much to get the numbers..... It was 24 random people closing their eyes and writing down random numbers.

    Their supposed collective thoughts gave them the numbers to write.

    The numbers were then added up to get an average.

    So, technically, Derren Brown didn't get the numbers, the 24 other folk did.

    One final thought, if I was one of the 24 people I'd be meeting up with the others each week to get more numbers!
    Thats rubbish as well.

    He had some camera effect which shined the numbers on to the balls....

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    mattx's Avatar
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    This is how I think:

    how derren brown's lottery trick might have been done

    And this shows a close up of the balls.

    [ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dFDWHUPF_s8"]YouTube - Derren Brown - Lottery prediction explained ... + *Proof* HD lotto scam and trick Events[/ame]

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    Derren Brown summed it up at the end for me saying it was a 'trick'. Nothing mathematical or clever about it at all. I also think the room full of people closing their eyes and writing numbers on paper was simply a distraction. The real method of producing the correct numbers looks like a camera trick.

    Derren Brown in some respects reminds me of the masked magician. They perform a demonstration and the methods used to produce an illusion are always very simple when revealed.
    If the room of people wanted to prove a point, lets see if they can guess the lottery numbers for next week Somehow I don't think it's going to happen.

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    sparkeh's Avatar
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    I only watched the bit about coin tossing. When his explanation was simply deep maths I switched over.

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    mattx's Avatar
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    It's a shame because I generally like his stuff, I think he is running out of ideas. This was just a load of tosh.
    His horse racing one was excellent, but this and deep maths ? What an idiot.

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    mattx's Avatar
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    As for the coin toss:

    Penney's game - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    Has a better explanation of it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by localzuk View Post
    He's not gonna give away the real way he tricked people... That would be shooting himself in the foot.
    Agreed - they were all buying it as well, given that none of them will remember what the numbers were one week to the next it leads the viewer to assume a lot of what Derrin Brown tells you about his TV show is True. To be honest he tells everyone a pile of what amounts to just junk.

    Quote Originally Posted by sparkeh View Post
    I only watched the bit about coin tossing. When his explanation was simply deep maths I switched over.
    I know - such Horse crap isn't it, even if I thought the filming of the coins being tossed was real I'd still think "Deep Maths - he is a liar, what a load of b0110cks".


    We had a conversation about this in the office today - Some foolish chimp reckons her dad can regularly earn money by predicting the lottery week in week out, but needs to scrape together £200 first to set the wheels of this "lottery winning extravaganza" in motion.



    ITS CALLED A LOTTERY FOR A DAMN GOOD REASON

    /rant

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    superfletch's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mattx View Post
    As for the coin toss:

    Penney's game - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    Has a better explanation of it.
    Just read that matt.

    It explains it to some degree - and concisely, but (I guess case no one has explained it), it doesn't say why.

    The closest there is to an explanation on that page is this...

    WIKIPEDIA - "Intuitive understanding may be aided by considering the extreme case of HHH: If player 2 picks THH, and any coin flip lands tails, player 1 cannot win."

    Quite plain to me that sentence = odds are the coin wont land the same three times on the trot. It is called an extreme for a reason.


    I bet Derrin Brown has an MA in "Mumbo Jumbo".

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    I think you misunderstood the coin trick....he wasn't using that as an explanation as to how he predicted the lotto numbers, he was using it to demonstrate that people can be influenced to believe their collective consciousness has an effect on apparent randomness (which the participants appeared to believe). He picked Penney's game because it appears random to most but actually is not; it is a nontransitive game in which the odds are in favour of the second player given they know what to pick (as he explained). The proof of this is complicated, but exists and is as he stated.

    A lot of stunts in the show had nothing to do with the lotto numbers - I think he was simply demonstrating that people are predictable and susceptible to suggestion given the correct conditions - including those that he put the 24 volunteers in. We all know the lotto is necessarily random, the whole point of his show was to create discussion and speculation, acting as misdirection to the fact that on camera and with no witnesses, it is simple to fake anything.

    I agree that this trick was feeble in comparison to previous ones, but it certainly got us talking



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